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Ping Pong Balls Watch Updated 4/7
Posted on 2/5/25 at 9:31 am
Posted on 2/5/25 at 9:31 am
Well I guess we aren't going to get to third, and now we need to hold of Philly for 4th.
We almost mucked it up last night, but some key turnovers late helped secure the L. Very important game Tuesday @ Brooklyn, and Philly is @ Washington on Wednesday.
As of 4-7-25:
SOS rankings for remaining schedule
Not to be a Debbie Downer, but the 4th spot has had probably the worst luk in this new draft lottery.
Last year draft order and where they finished:
1. Hawks 10th
2. Wizards 2nd
3. Nets 9th
4. Spurs 5th
5. Pistons 1st
6. Hornets 3rd
7. Blazers 4th
2023:
1. Spurs 3rd
2. Hornets 4th
3. Blazers 5th
4. Rockets 2nd
5. Pistons 1st
2022:
1. Magic 2nd
2. Thunder 4th
3. Rockets 1st
4. Kings 7th
5. Pistons 3rd
2021:
1. Pistons 2nd
2. Rockets 1st
3. Cavs 5th
4. Raptors 7th
5. Magic 3rd
6. Thunder 4th
2020:
1. Wolves 3rd
2. Warriors 1st
3. Hornets 8th
4. Bulls 7th
5. Cavs 2nd
6. Hawks 4th
2019:
1. Pelicans 7th
2. Grizzlies 8th
3. Knicks 1st
4. Lakers 11th
5. Cavs 2nd
6. Suns 3rd
7. Bulls 4th
We almost mucked it up last night, but some key turnovers late helped secure the L. Very important game Tuesday @ Brooklyn, and Philly is @ Washington on Wednesday.
As of 4-7-25:
SOS rankings for remaining schedule
Not to be a Debbie Downer, but the 4th spot has had probably the worst luk in this new draft lottery.
Last year draft order and where they finished:
1. Hawks 10th
2. Wizards 2nd
3. Nets 9th
4. Spurs 5th
5. Pistons 1st
6. Hornets 3rd
7. Blazers 4th
2023:
1. Spurs 3rd
2. Hornets 4th
3. Blazers 5th
4. Rockets 2nd
5. Pistons 1st
2022:
1. Magic 2nd
2. Thunder 4th
3. Rockets 1st
4. Kings 7th
5. Pistons 3rd
2021:
1. Pistons 2nd
2. Rockets 1st
3. Cavs 5th
4. Raptors 7th
5. Magic 3rd
6. Thunder 4th
2020:
1. Wolves 3rd
2. Warriors 1st
3. Hornets 8th
4. Bulls 7th
5. Cavs 2nd
6. Hawks 4th
2019:
1. Pelicans 7th
2. Grizzlies 8th
3. Knicks 1st
4. Lakers 11th
5. Cavs 2nd
6. Suns 3rd
7. Bulls 4th
This post was edited on 4/7/25 at 7:47 am
15
Posted on 2/5/25 at 9:46 am to TeddyPadillac
Looks like the 5 spot is our floor and the 2 spot is our ceiling.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 9:48 am to TeddyPadillac
We will have a clearer picture this upcoming week.
I'm kinda hoping we lose DEN/ OKC/ SAC/ SAC and maybe beat SAC the 3rd game.
1-4 would put us at 13-42 and 6-8 games back from even #5/#6 with TOR/ BKN
I'm kinda hoping we lose DEN/ OKC/ SAC/ SAC and maybe beat SAC the 3rd game.
1-4 would put us at 13-42 and 6-8 games back from even #5/#6 with TOR/ BKN
Posted on 2/5/25 at 9:55 am to Dantheman504
The Nets play Washinton twice, Philly twice and the Hornets in their next 7 games If they win 3 of those, while we win maybe 2 in our next 7, they'd have a 6 game lead on us with about 25 left to play.
So even if they finish the year 5-20, we still have to go 12-13 just to pass them up, while playing one of the hardest schedules in the league whil the Nets play one of the easiest.
So even if they finish the year 5-20, we still have to go 12-13 just to pass them up, while playing one of the hardest schedules in the league whil the Nets play one of the easiest.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 10:02 am to TeddyPadillac
I have a bad feeling about this year’s lottery. Pretty sure both times we won it, it was unexpected. Now that we are hoping to tank and get a top pick, we’re going to end up outside the top 5.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 10:05 am to spaghettioeauxs
quote:
Pretty sure both times we won it, it was unexpected. Now that we are hoping to tank and get a top pick
Except we aren't winning it or going to be #1 and the last few years #4 is literally the best spot to move up or stay.
This post was edited on 2/5/25 at 10:18 am
Posted on 2/5/25 at 10:09 am to Dantheman504
That’s not how odds work. #1 team still has the best shot, brother. Previous coin flip doesn’t affect the next.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 10:13 am to Dantheman504
Team 1: 14.0%
Team 2: 14.0%
Team 3: 14.0%
Team 4: 12.5%
Team 5: 10.5%
Team 6: 9.0%
Team 7: 7.5%
Team 8: 6.0%
Top 3 all have the same shot. Saying 4th is the best is mathematically incorrect.
Team 2: 14.0%
Team 3: 14.0%
Team 4: 12.5%
Team 5: 10.5%
Team 6: 9.0%
Team 7: 7.5%
Team 8: 6.0%
Top 3 all have the same shot. Saying 4th is the best is mathematically incorrect.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 10:13 am to spaghettioeauxs
quote:
That’s not how odds work. #1 team still has the best shot, brother.
I never said they didn't. I was simply saying I'm not worried when our highest odds at #4 end up at #4 or top 3
Edited it to be less specific considering its legit a lottery.
This post was edited on 2/5/25 at 10:19 am
Posted on 2/5/25 at 10:15 am to Dantheman504
This might be a stupid question but the NBA supposedly does the lottery with ping pong balls right? And the worse you do, the more balls you have available to be randomly selected. How do they factor in the 0.5% that a few teams have?
Posted on 2/5/25 at 10:17 am to spaghettioeauxs
We gotta tank hard and shamelessly.
I’m worried about falling below Charlotte Toronto and the nets.
Gotta keep a top 3 spot
I’m worried about falling below Charlotte Toronto and the nets.
Gotta keep a top 3 spot
Posted on 2/5/25 at 10:19 am to spaghettioeauxs
quote:
The actual lottery procedure will take place in a separate room just before ESPN’s national broadcast. Select media, NBA officials and representatives of the participating teams and the accounting firm Ernst & Young will be in attendance for the drawings.
Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 will be placed in a lottery machine. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Before the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams. The lottery machine is manufactured by the Smart Play Company, a leading manufacturer of state lottery machines throughout the United States. Smart Play also weighs, measures and certifies the ping-pong balls before the drawing.
The drawing process occurs in the following manner: All 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine and they are mixed for 20 seconds, and then the first ball is removed. The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10 seconds, and then the second ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the third ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the fourth ball is drawn. The team that has been assigned that combination will receive the No. 1 pick. The same process is repeated with the same ping-pong balls and lottery machine for the second through fourth picks.
If the same team comes up more than once, the result is discarded and another four-ball combination is selected. Also, if the one unassigned combination is drawn, the result is discarded and the balls are drawn again. The length of time the balls are mixed is monitored by a timekeeper who faces away from the machine and signals the machine operator after the appropriate amount of time has elapsed.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 10:21 am to TeddyPadillac
1-3 = 40% odds of top 3 spot
6 = 27.6% odds of top 3 spot
After 6 is where the odds start dropping fast.
6 = 27.6% odds of top 3 spot
After 6 is where the odds start dropping fast.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 10:22 am to TigerinATL
Last year draft order and where they finished:
1. Hawks 10th
2. Wizards 2nd
3. Nets 9th
4. Spurs 5th
5. Pistons 1st
6. Hornets 3rd
7. Blazers 4th
2023:
1. Spurs 3rd
2. Hornets 4th
3. Blazers 5th
4. Rockets 2nd
5. Pistons 1st
2022:
1. Magic 2nd
2. Thunder 4th
3. Rockets 1st
4. Kings 7th
5. Pistons 3rd
2021:
1. Pistons 2nd
2. Rockets 1st
3. Cavs 5th
4. Raptors 7th
5. Magic 3rd
6. Thunder 4th
2020:
1. Wolves 3rd
2. Warriors 1st
3. Hornets 8th
4. Bulls 7th
5. Cavs 2nd
6. Hawks 4th
2019:
1. Pelicans 7th
2. Grizzlies 8th
3. Knicks 1st
4. Lakers 11th
5. Cavs 2nd
6. Suns 3rd
7. Bulls 4th
So on average, only 2 of the bottom 4 teams are getting top 4 draft slots. The 5th worst record has finished in the top 4 slots at the same 50% of the time. The 7th/8th spot has finished in the top 4 25% of the time. the 6th spot looks to be extremely unlucky.
1. Hawks 10th
2. Wizards 2nd
3. Nets 9th
4. Spurs 5th
5. Pistons 1st
6. Hornets 3rd
7. Blazers 4th
2023:
1. Spurs 3rd
2. Hornets 4th
3. Blazers 5th
4. Rockets 2nd
5. Pistons 1st
2022:
1. Magic 2nd
2. Thunder 4th
3. Rockets 1st
4. Kings 7th
5. Pistons 3rd
2021:
1. Pistons 2nd
2. Rockets 1st
3. Cavs 5th
4. Raptors 7th
5. Magic 3rd
6. Thunder 4th
2020:
1. Wolves 3rd
2. Warriors 1st
3. Hornets 8th
4. Bulls 7th
5. Cavs 2nd
6. Hawks 4th
2019:
1. Pelicans 7th
2. Grizzlies 8th
3. Knicks 1st
4. Lakers 11th
5. Cavs 2nd
6. Suns 3rd
7. Bulls 4th
So on average, only 2 of the bottom 4 teams are getting top 4 draft slots. The 5th worst record has finished in the top 4 slots at the same 50% of the time. The 7th/8th spot has finished in the top 4 25% of the time. the 6th spot looks to be extremely unlucky.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 10:25 am to TeddyPadillac
Poor Pistons were the 1 and ended up at 5 during the Wemby draft. Relying on the lottery when you’re a dogshit team must be the worst feeling.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 10:31 am to spaghettioeauxs
I'll try...each team doesn't actually get different amounts of ping pong balls based on their season record...they get different amounts of the possible "combinations" of the numbers 1-4 involving those 14 ping pong balls which are used for the drawing.
So...with balls numbered 1-14...there are 1001 different possible combinations that can be drawn. The Wizards will probably has the worst record and will therefore get 14% of the possible "combos" ...or 140 different combinations. Etc...etc...
If the ONE non-designated combination is drawn...it is disregarded. So...if a team had a .5% chance...they would be assigned 5 combinations.
So...with balls numbered 1-14...there are 1001 different possible combinations that can be drawn. The Wizards will probably has the worst record and will therefore get 14% of the possible "combos" ...or 140 different combinations. Etc...etc...
If the ONE non-designated combination is drawn...it is disregarded. So...if a team had a .5% chance...they would be assigned 5 combinations.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 10:43 am to TeddyPadillac
quote:
quote:
The actual lottery procedure will take place in a separate room just before ESPN’s national broadcast. Select media, NBA officials and representatives of the participating teams and the accounting firm Ernst & Young will be in attendance for the drawings.
Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 will be placed in a lottery machine. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Before the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams. The lottery machine is manufactured by the Smart Play Company, a leading manufacturer of state lottery machines throughout the United States. Smart Play also weighs, measures and certifies the ping-pong balls before the drawing.
The drawing process occurs in the following manner: All 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine and they are mixed for 20 seconds, and then the first ball is removed. The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10 seconds, and then the second ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the third ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the fourth ball is drawn. The team that has been assigned that combination will receive the No. 1 pick. The same process is repeated with the same ping-pong balls and lottery machine for the second through fourth picks.
If the same team comes up more than once, the result is discarded and another four-ball combination is selected. Also, if the one unassigned combination is drawn, the result is discarded and the balls are drawn again. The length of time the balls are mixed is monitored by a timekeeper who faces away from the machine and signals the machine operator after the appropriate amount of time has elapsed.
Wish I had seen your post before posting mine...coulda saved me some time. BUT...the next question is...how are "combos" assigned? In other words...what will the Wizards' "actual" 140 combinations be...that they are assigned? I don't need all 140 combos they will get...just give me the first 10 or so.
EDIT: Yep I'm a complete nerd....but a coupla us were having lunch the other day and the discussion went to exactly how each team got their "assigned" 4-combo numbers. Believe it or not...we find these sorta things "interesting"...over our Chik-fil-a sammiches
This post was edited on 2/5/25 at 11:36 am
Posted on 2/5/25 at 11:46 am to TeddyPadillac
IF we ended up with pick #2 or #3 or #4...I would trade WHATEVER it takes...to move up and take Flagg. I think THAT highly of him.
Time for our Pels to go for the cheese. Forget this sneaking into the playoffs crap. Maybe whichever team gets the #1 pick doesn't really need a "Flagg" and would be happy to take...say...our #2 pick and a bunch of "parting gifts".
Yes...once again...I'm a desperate man...with a desperate plan !!
Time for our Pels to go for the cheese. Forget this sneaking into the playoffs crap. Maybe whichever team gets the #1 pick doesn't really need a "Flagg" and would be happy to take...say...our #2 pick and a bunch of "parting gifts".
Yes...once again...I'm a desperate man...with a desperate plan !!
Posted on 2/5/25 at 12:34 pm to Dinky Mulberry
While 1-4 have the same chance at pick 1 we still need to be as close to 1 as possible. If our ping pong ball isn't picked for any of the top 4 picks then it reverts to worse record of the remaining teams and I'd much rather pick 5 than heaven forbid pick 8
Posted on 2/7/25 at 8:40 pm to purplepylon
Huge win by Charlotte tonight. They just got their 13th win. They were previously 1-8 with their only win against the Pels. With Ball back, I'm hoping they continue win some more games to build a bigger cushion.
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