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Amite River Water Level
Posted on 10/9/20 at 4:13 pm
Posted on 10/9/20 at 4:13 pm
Back during the Flood of 2016 there was long thread about the flood.
There was a poster who was exceptional at predicting the Amite Levels, and he posted how he did it. I don't remember his formula, but he was much more accurate than the NOAA site.
Anyone remember this conversation? I have a more vested interest than I did 4 years ago.
There was a poster who was exceptional at predicting the Amite Levels, and he posted how he did it. I don't remember his formula, but he was much more accurate than the NOAA site.
Anyone remember this conversation? I have a more vested interest than I did 4 years ago.
6
Posted on 10/9/20 at 4:15 pm to Grassy1
supernovasky
Posted on 10/9/20 at 4:15 pm to Grassy1
quote:
There was a poster who was exceptional at predicting the Amite Levels, and he posted how he did it.
its the OT so Probably this!
This post was edited on 10/9/20 at 4:18 pm
Posted on 10/9/20 at 4:19 pm to Tigerlaff
He was predicting all the back flowing basically to the hour because he was following crests. Dude was a champ.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 4:24 pm to KLSU
"but he was much more accurate than the NOAA site. "
Posted on 10/9/20 at 4:26 pm to ell_13
Is Spanish lake gonna be the savior again?
Posted on 10/9/20 at 4:30 pm to Grassy1
Just for conversation sake, let's remember that on Friday at 4pm, NOAA's high prediction at Port Vincent is Monday at 4pm at 7.9 feet.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 4:31 pm to Grassy1
quote:
Back during the Flood of 2016 there was long thread about the flood.
This is a far more complex situation than 2016 to predict. You have tides and tidal surges from the Gulf. Significant S/SE winds pushing water up the river. Significant rainfall from up North already in the river and another dump to come in the next 24 hours.
Once the wind is down and "all" the rain is in the river it becomes easier to predict.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 4:45 pm to Obtuse1
I appreciate those facts Obtuse1, but I'd still like to hear how that guy was able to predict so accurately. Just for my future use.
I appreciate the NOAA site, as it's really all I know of, but from my experience of watching it pretty closely over the last year, it's prediction part of it's graph really just isn't very accurate.
I appreciate the NOAA site, as it's really all I know of, but from my experience of watching it pretty closely over the last year, it's prediction part of it's graph really just isn't very accurate.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 5:11 pm to Grassy1
quote:
I appreciate the NOAA site, as it's really all I know of, but from my experience of watching it pretty closely over the last year, it's prediction part of it's graph really just isn't very accurate.
That’s kind of the point, though. It can only be as accurate as the rainfall totals. All the hydrology expertise in the world doesn’t help if you don’t know how much rain is going to fall. That’s why the river stage predictions are much more accurate after a weather event.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 5:21 pm to Grassy1
quote:
but I'd still like to hear how that guy was able to predict so accurately. Just for my future use.
Someone mentioned in another thread he had access to models that no one on the OT has in the Delta thread.
Don’t know the truth of the matter
Posted on 10/9/20 at 5:24 pm to lostinbr
quote:
That’s why the river stage predictions are much more accurate after a weather event.
Right. And the backwater flooding from the Amite that he predicted was almost after the rainfall north was over.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 5:27 pm to Grassy1
Unless there is a ton of rain in the upper Amite river basin, the Diversion Canal will only be rising, at most, another 6 inches
Posted on 10/9/20 at 5:29 pm to wickowick
Bruh.. River Life,
not Diversion Life!
not Diversion Life!
Posted on 10/9/20 at 5:56 pm to Grassy1
Same water baw
Posted on 10/9/20 at 6:23 pm to wickowick
quote:
Same water baw
Pretty sure the water bifurcates at the wier.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 6:27 pm to tigercross
Wait. What?
Posted on 10/9/20 at 6:33 pm to tigercross
Ummm... pics?
Posted on 10/9/20 at 6:41 pm to BuddyRoeaux
The model that was built a couple of years ago will be far more accurate, but it's not really a predictive model. The resolution of the model is just too high for most workstations to run quickly. They are probably already running scenarios on cloud servers based on what entered the river overnight.
The surge will likely be gone by the time that the peak heads downstream, too. Frankly, I'm not very concerned about anything in the same stratosphere as 2016.
The surge will likely be gone by the time that the peak heads downstream, too. Frankly, I'm not very concerned about anything in the same stratosphere as 2016.
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