Elon Musk: Robots will surpass good human surgeons within a few years

Can a robot react on the fly and fix shite if things go south?

"Racism in tech reaches new low as white robots dominate the AI medical field."

- CNN, probably.

Robots can only do things that have already been done.

quote:

---

Robots can only do things that have already been done.

---

Imagine thinking this is insightful.

No, they have to go lap or open.

I asked Grok 3 how long before we see full autonomous robotic surgeons. Cool Breakdown



Autonomous robot surgeons are still a ways off from being fully realized, but significant progress is being made. Current surgical robots, like the da Vinci system, are advanced tools controlled by human surgeons, offering precision, dexterity, and minimally invasive techniques. They’re used in procedures like prostatectomies, hysterectomies, and cardiac surgeries, with over 10 million procedures performed by 2023. However, these systems lack true autonomy—they rely on human input for decision-making and execution.

Current State
Semi-autonomous systems: Some robots can perform specific tasks, like suturing or tissue manipulation, under human supervision. For example, the Smart Tissue Autonomous Robot (STAR) has demonstrated suturing soft tissue in animal models with precision rivaling human surgeons.

AI integration: Machine learning is improving robots’ ability to recognize anatomy, adapt to tissue variability, and optimize movements. AI models trained on surgical videos (e.g., Google’s DeepMind or Intuitive’s data sets) can predict optimal incision points or detect complications.

Limitations: Challenges include unpredictable human anatomy, real-time decision-making in complex scenarios, and ensuring safety in edge cases (e.g., bleeding or organ damage). Regulatory hurdles (FDA, EU MDR) and ethical concerns also slow deployment.

Timeline Estimates
Near-term (5–10 years, 2030–2035): Expect enhanced semi-autonomous systems where robots handle routine tasks (e.g., suturing, ablation) with humans overseeing critical decisions. These will likely be confined to standardized procedures like appendectomies or orthopedic surgeries. Companies like Intuitive Surgical, Medtronic, and startups like Vicarious Surgical are pushing this.

Mid-term (10–20 years, 2035–2045): Fully autonomous robots for specific, well-defined surgeries (e.g., cataract surgery or biopsies) could emerge, especially in controlled environments. Advances in AI, haptics, and 5G for real-time data transfer will enable this. Systems will need to prove near-zero error rates to gain trust.

Long-term (20+ years, 2045+): General-purpose autonomous surgical robots capable of complex, variable procedures (e.g., trauma surgery or organ transplants) are likely decades away. This requires breakthroughs in general AI, real-time imaging, and biomaterials, plus societal acceptance of machines making life-or-death decisions.

Key Hurdles
AI robustness: Surgical AI must handle rare anatomical anomalies and intraoperative complications without fail. Current models struggle with generalization.

Safety and liability: Who’s responsible if an autonomous robot fails? Resolving this legally and ethically is a major barrier.

Data and training: Autonomous systems need massive, diverse datasets of surgical outcomes, which are hard to standardize across patients and hospitals.

Cost and access: High costs (da Vinci systems run $1–2 million) limit adoption. Autonomous systems must be cost-effective for widespread use.

Recent Developments
In 2024, Intuitive Surgical’s da Vinci 5 system introduced improved AI-driven analytics and force-sensing tools, a step toward autonomy.

Research from Johns Hopkins and UC Berkeley (2023–2024) showed robots performing supervised tasks like tumor resection in simulations with 95%+ accuracy.

China’s Tinavi Medical and Japan’s Cyberdyne are testing orthopedic robots with semi-autonomous features for spinal and joint surgeries.

Conclusion
We’re likely 10–15 years from limited autonomous surgical robots for routine procedures, with fully autonomous general surgery decades away. Progress depends on AI reliability, regulatory frameworks, and public trust. If you’re curious about specific procedures or companies, I can dig deeper—let me know!

Human anatomy is unpredictable, especially when you throw in things like cancer and even dna glitches. Robots can be great when you already have a mapped out patient, but before that, no way.

Does that mean I don’t have to pay for a surgeon’s trip to some exotic location as my “bill”

I have been consulting on the development of a therapeutic medical device that kills sepsis in the body using highly specialized imaging sensors that can clearly "see" to 1 micron (as reference, the thickness of human hair typically ranges from 17 to 181 microns). These sensors are read by AI, looking for sepsis bacteria as small as 2 microns. As it recognizes it, AI directs a series of more than 4 million tiny laser diodes that fire off individually as directed by AI. In a 30 minute procedure, the device can clear the body's blood of up to 94% of live sepsis bacteria, allowing the body's immune system to avoid being overwhelmed, giving patients who develop sepsis from an injury or surgery an expected 90% improvement in survival rate. No doctors will perform any work. It'll all be set up by trained technicians and then run by AI.

quote:

---

Elon Musk: Robots will surpass good human surgeons within a few years

---

Maybe so man, but I have to say Dr Eric Oberlander at the Neuromedical Center on Bluebonnet helped me a ton!! Did my L4, L5 disc fusion in 2017 and I'm still going strong.