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Started By
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RCP "no toss up" map update Trump 287/251 MI,WI now DEM
Posted on 10/31/24 at 8:50 am
Posted on 10/31/24 at 8:50 am
RCP MAP 10/31 AM
That's down 25 EV from 2 days ago. But... These are all very close, so who knows, but it takes away some margin if it holds.
Hopefully, the polling has a similar Dem bias that it had in 2020 (polling vs actual). Subtract out that bias and it puts Trump ahead in several of these swing states.
That's down 25 EV from 2 days ago. But... These are all very close, so who knows, but it takes away some margin if it holds.
Hopefully, the polling has a similar Dem bias that it had in 2020 (polling vs actual). Subtract out that bias and it puts Trump ahead in several of these swing states.
This post was edited on 10/31/24 at 8:52 am
7
Posted on 10/31/24 at 8:53 am to MidWestGuy
As it has been pointed out, the WI shift is due to a CNN +6, which is a massive outlier.
No one is even close to that degree of spread.
No one is even close to that degree of spread.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 8:54 am to MidWestGuy
CNN came through for Harris in that ridiculous +6 Harris poll in WI.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 8:56 am to MidWestGuy
It seems that it will be PA or bust for both candidates.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 8:58 am to MidWestGuy
If you want to feel better, go look at the outliers for Harris in Michigan that moved the number to Harris' column - Susquehanna and Quinnipiac.
Now go look at their polling in Pennsylvania.
Now go look at their polling in Pennsylvania.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 8:59 am to MidWestGuy
I would suggest to stop looking at polling this late, as was suggested by a professional pollster, and look at turnout analytics.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 9:00 am to MidWestGuy
Has Trump ever been favored prior to election day in either 2020 or 2016?
seems like Hillary and Biden were both favored except for a small number of pollsters.
seems like Hillary and Biden were both favored except for a small number of pollsters.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 9:00 am to Jon Ham
Yep most likely whoever takes Penn is president and the polling is a complete toss up there.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 9:00 am to Jon Ham
quote:
seems that it will be PA or bust for both candidates.
It's always been PA. The winner of that state wins the presidency.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 9:18 am to MidWestGuy
Is that Michigan poll that had Trump down 11 still factored in?
Posted on 10/31/24 at 9:35 am to tWildcat
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