The enduring myth of "The Switch" and the "Southern Strategy"

It's time to put this one to bed once and for all.

Here is a congressional map of the United States in the aftermath of the 1964 election and the Civil Rights Act of 1964.



As you can see, Republicans have made major gains in the states of Mississippi, Georgia, and Alabama in the aftermath of the Civil Rights Act passing through Congress. Could this be a tell-tale sign of the legendary switch we hear about so often? Let's fast forward four years to the aftermath of the 1968 election:



Many of those gains have all but disappeared and the majority of those seats are now in the hands of Democrats yet again.

Let's flash forward to 1972, Richard Nixon's electoral landslide of a re-election, and check in to see how that so-called Southern Strategy is paying off for the Republicans:



By the looks of it...not very well. The Deep South still remains deeply blue. Those racists haven't switched over to the Republican Party quite yet. However, Nixon's strategy did manage to turn some House seats from blue to red so, well done there.

Now let's head on over to 1976 and see what the map looks like after Carter won the presidency!



Still mostly blue. We're almost through the 70s and we have yet to see this great party switch that we were told happened around the time of Goldwater and Nixon. Let's continue onward!

I know! Let's fast forward a couple of election cycles to 1984. Surely the emergence of Ronald Reagan and the rise of conservatism would have convinced those racist southerners to switch political parties and start voting for Republicans at the congressional level!



Okay. A little movement to the red but the south is still overwhelmingly blue even after the Reagan landslide of 1984.

Let's go to 1988 and the election of George H.W. Bush to the White House. Maybe we'll see some more Republican gains!



shite. We actually lost a little ground in the Deep South. Three districts shifted back from red to blue in Texas and Georgia. Meanwhile, however, Florida is actually starting to transform into a Republican stronghold.

Let's fast forward four years to 1992 and see what the map looks like after Clinton was elected to the White House.



A little bit more red has begun to appear in the Deep South but Democrats still hold a majority in the region. We're now almost 30 years removed from the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and that great switch has still yet to show up at the House level.

Let's fast forward to the 30th anniversary of Barry Goldwater's presidential campaign, as well as the 30th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. 1994! Here we come!



Oh, shite. Look all of that red appear on the map in the Deep South. I wonder what could have happened to bring this about? Newt Gingrich promised Americans going into the '94 mid-terms a Congress that would limit the size and power of the government. That message resonated with southern voters and they voted Republican en masse for the first time ever in the Deep South.

Alabama is still a stubborn hold out though. We haven't seen things change in that state in years. Let's fast forward two years and see if that changes any...



And there goes Alabama...finally. Mississippi is finally beginning to see the light as well. However, a few districts in South Carolina, Louisiana, and Texas shifted back to blue.

Anyways...let's bring this presentation to a close by showing off the next presidential election cycles.

2000


2004


2008


2012


2016


So what does this all mean? It definitely doesn't show evidence of some great switch that happened over a period of just a few years. If anything...this switch took decades to manifest at the local level.