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The Storm Before The Calm is an interesting book

Posted on 11/9/24 at 9:07 am
Posted by olemc999
At a blackjack table
Member since Oct 2010
14496 posts
Posted on 11/9/24 at 9:07 am
George Friedman is a geopolitical forecaster that notices trends and cycles in historical patterns. In his book Friedman goes on to claim that America experiences two types of cycles on a recurring basis and these are institutional cycles and socioeconomic cycles. The institutional cycles last around 80 years and the socioeconomic cycles go on for about 50 years. The end of a cycle experiences turbulence before a new one begins. Friedman wrote this book in the early 2010s but I think he published it in 2020. Friedman stated that the Twenties would be a real rocky time frame because for the first time in American history, both cycles are ending within a few years of each other. That being the institutional around 2025 and the socioeconomic around 2030.

A theme in his book was about political shifts and movement within parties. He said that right would form a workforce coalition that would eat away and corrode the lefts identity politics. That would leave the left only catering to the corporate/political elite and the managerial class. This would give the edge to the right the for the next 50-80 years because the populace would grow to despise the elites and managerial class.

Another concept is about how there are 2 American empires. The first being 1776-WW2. The first American empire being an empire within itself and largely growing from within. The second empire from the end of WW2 to the present day where America exerted its force through foreign policy and the military. The third American empire will become one where America will exert foreign power through technology and innovation and become self sufficient and focus on its infrastructure and wealth.

It's a damn good read for anyone that's interested or curious for what the future might hold.
This post was edited on 11/9/24 at 9:10 am
Posted by lake chuck fan
westlake
Member since Aug 2011
17750 posts
Posted on 11/9/24 at 9:11 am to
I like this guy. He does videos on many different aspects of the same general topic you described.





Posted by juice4lsu
Member since Dec 2007
3729 posts
Posted on 11/9/24 at 9:21 am to
This is similar to the book The Fourth Turning and the more recent The Fourth Turning is Here. Very interesting, detailed reads on history, economics and demography. You don't need the background of the first book to read the second.

Far more detail in the book but you can get a high level view of their theory here:
LINK


Video explaining the book a bit
This post was edited on 11/9/24 at 9:23 am
Posted by GhostOfFreedom
Member since Jan 2021
12925 posts
Posted on 11/9/24 at 9:25 am to
Found it! Thanks, I will add it to my reading list.



https://amzn.to/48Mg80e
Posted by olemc999
At a blackjack table
Member since Oct 2010
14496 posts
Posted on 11/9/24 at 9:47 am to
Damn good video. I am gonna grab that 4th turning book.
Posted by juice4lsu
Member since Dec 2007
3729 posts
Posted on 11/9/24 at 9:57 am to
It is a phenomenal book. Whether the theory is correct or not, is one of the best history books I've ever read. The original book, The Fourth Turning, was written in the early to mid 90's. It actually predicted much of what we are dealing with today along with a financial crisis in 2007-2008.

It does give you some perspective and you start to see patterns in today's world. Ultimately, I found it encouraging. If history is linear, we are on a path to destruction, but with a cyclical view of history the night is darkest before the dawn.
Posted by olemc999
At a blackjack table
Member since Oct 2010
14496 posts
Posted on 11/9/24 at 10:03 am to
quote:

If history is linear, we are on a path to destruction, but with a cyclical view of history the night is darkest before the dawn.


Absolutely. You can't have a rebirth or renaissance without something dying. You can't build and create without tearing down and destroying something else.
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