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Tomorrow's unemployment report... approaching Sahm Rule
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:39 pm
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:39 pm
quote:
Friday brings a fresh set of data — and a new catalyst for stocks: July’s nonfarm payrolls. Economists polled by Dow Jones are calling for growth of 185,000 jobs, down from June’s gain of 206,000. The unemployment rate, which is especially important as traders search for signs of an impending recession, is expected to hold steady at 4.1%.
Factory orders are also on deck Friday morning.
LINK
For my portfolio sake, I hope the report beats expectations, but I think we see unemoyment tick up.
This post was edited on 8/1/24 at 6:46 pm
13
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:45 pm to Jjdoc
You know we’ve turned a corner because the market has stopped responding positively to bad news, and started reacting negatively to bad news.
“The beatings will continue until moral improves” is the broad philosophy the fed has used, and it looks like “moral is improving”
“The beatings will continue until moral improves” is the broad philosophy the fed has used, and it looks like “moral is improving”
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:48 pm to Jjdoc
Conn’s and Babcock are closing over 530 stores, just filed for bankruptcy. So add 10k or so to the unemployment numbers from them alone.
Company survived for over 130 years, survived 2 world wars and the Great Depression.
Couldn’t survive Biden.
Company survived for over 130 years, survived 2 world wars and the Great Depression.
Couldn’t survive Biden.
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:50 pm to Jjdoc
Anything showing any growth at all is entirely propped up by inflation.
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:54 pm to Jjdoc
Job growth will be revised down in a few weeks like all the others.
This post was edited on 8/1/24 at 5:58 pm
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:56 pm to Jjdoc
Im thinking it comes in line with expectations
Hope its weaker for a bond party
Hope its weaker for a bond party
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:57 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
The unemployment rate, which is especially important as traders search for signs of an impending recession, is expected to hold steady at 4.1%.
Two consecutive quarters of decline used to be th telltale indicator that the US was in a recession.
But then, Joe Biden was fraudulently installed into the White House, and suddenly multiple consecutive quarters of decline was redefined by the White House and the MSM Narrative Control Apparatus to mean "great progress" and "economic triumph".
I'm done with this simulation where up is down and blue is West. If Trump had presided over this economy, he'd have been rightfully crucified by EVERYONE.
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:57 pm to Jjdoc
JPow needs it to come in low to better justify a cut in September. If it comes in beating June (which I doubt), the market is going to shite itself. 
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:57 pm to Crimson Wraith
quote:
It will be revised down in a few weeks like all the others.
yep. 3 weeks from now at 1658 on a Friday.
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:58 pm to Jjdoc
Manufacturing is down again for something like 20 of the last 21 months.
Posted on 8/1/24 at 6:01 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
Tomorrow's unemployment report
Will be a wonderful work of Democrat fan fiction
Posted on 8/1/24 at 6:06 pm to Jjdoc
Just remember two things, no matter what the number is:
1. It will be revised down, probably right after DNC convention, at least 10% maybe up to 20%
2. This chart- not counting COVID, the worst since 1977
1. It will be revised down, probably right after DNC convention, at least 10% maybe up to 20%
2. This chart- not counting COVID, the worst since 1977
Posted on 8/1/24 at 6:24 pm to I20goon
Watch the mix……They are running out of places to put Federal Employees.
It’s the exact tactic Obama used. The reason Trump put the Magic Wand up Obama’s arse …. You don’t build on Federal BS. You build on private enterprise.
It’s the exact tactic Obama used. The reason Trump put the Magic Wand up Obama’s arse …. You don’t build on Federal BS. You build on private enterprise.
Posted on 8/1/24 at 6:43 pm to Hateradedrink
We have not turned a corner, in fact we could very well be in a serious recession soon.
Sahm Rule
Sahm Rule
Posted on 8/1/24 at 9:52 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
We have not turned a corner, in fact we could very well be in a serious recession soon.
That’s the point.
We’re finally acting like bad news is actually bad news. 6 months ago, a bad jobs report would have made the market go up and a good report would make it go down.
Posted on 8/1/24 at 9:57 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
think we see unemoyment tick up.
I think that would be a post election revision
Posted on 8/1/24 at 10:02 pm to Baldy
quote:covers up all the bad stuff.
post election revision
Posted on 8/1/24 at 10:04 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
We’re finally acting like bad news is actually bad news. 6 months ago, a bad jobs report would have made the market go up and a good report would make it go down.
Yep.
The market going up because they were expecting lower rates never made a lot of sense to me. Dropping rates generally signifies a slowing economy.
15 years of essentially zero interest has completely skewed expectations it seems.
*Semis have been nuts the past couple days. Completely irrational.
Posted on 8/1/24 at 10:06 pm to BuckyCheese
quote:
The market going up because they were expecting lower rates never made a lot of sense to me. Dropping rates generally signifies a slowing economy.
Exactly. It was the dumbest shite ever. The fed is never going to lower rates when the market is blowing up because “rates might go down”. That is just feeding inflation.
Posted on 8/1/24 at 11:01 pm to Jjdoc
Any job growth listed Fri will be illegals aided. Fundamentals are bad.
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