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re: Tomorrow's unemployment report... approaching Sahm Rule

Posted on 8/1/24 at 11:08 pm to
Posted by Jjdoc
Cali
Member since Mar 2016
54087 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 11:08 pm to
LINK


This is the Sahm Rule indicator. You can select a year. Should unemployment rise tomorrow, it will break .5.... and that is a recession
Posted by Neutral Underground
Member since Mar 2024
375 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 11:15 pm to
What are y'all talking about? The economy is great. Jobs are up. Inflation? More like shrinkflation. Stop thinking. Just listen to what the Media tells you. They have you best interests at heart. You trust them to raise your children right? Lol. Americans really are as stupid as foreigners say. You put us in fancy hotels and give us free healthcare while your veterans and homeless suffer.
This post was edited on 8/1/24 at 11:18 pm
Posted by Hangit
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
40871 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 4:36 am to
quote:

Conn’s and Babcock are closing over 530 stores,


It is spelled Badcock and is leading in the unfortunate name category.
Posted by IMSA_Fan
Member since Jul 2024
100 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 4:41 am to
You are never going to convince me that a country is in a recession with an unemployment rate around 4%
Posted by CamdenTiger
Member since Aug 2009
63791 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 4:44 am to
quote:

You are never going to convince me that a country is in a recession with an unemployment rate around 4%


Smoke and mirrors, and fudging the numbers, adding more jobs to the Government; but probably been in a recession since late 2023
Posted by IMSA_Fan
Member since Jul 2024
100 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 4:51 am to
I’m not saying by any means the stock market is a recession indicator, but it is up 23% in the last year. I have a hard time accepting that we are anywhere near a recession based on that number
Posted by CamdenTiger
Member since Aug 2009
63791 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 5:00 am to
I think we are deficit spending a trillion every 98 days to prop this up, in an election year… That much liquidity will keep the markets humming, but the economy has been in recession, and I think we will soon see that play out..
Posted by CamdenTiger
Member since Aug 2009
63791 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 8:00 am to
Looks like Sahm rule got triggered, may get emergency cut, probably won’t get it since they are scared about inflation, so the Fed will always be lagging…. Pain about to be felt
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
53378 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 8:09 am to
quote:

Looks like Sahm rule got triggered, may get emergency cut, probably won’t get it since they are scared about inflation, so the Fed will always be lagging…. Pain about to be felt


There won't be an emergency cut this close to September (if there is one, it's going to be purely political and send inflation roaring again by Christmas). This has definitely moved the needle more towards pointing at a September cut as a certainty.

July CPI comes out on August 14th, if CPI comes in below 3%, book that Sept cut. If it continues to remain sticky at/above 3%, we're pretty much in stagflation and shite will be about to hit the fan unless GDP for Q2 comes in very low.

There was never going to be a "soft landing". Ever.
Posted by BuckyCheese
Member since Jan 2015
52902 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 9:50 am to
quote:

Smoke and mirrors, and fudging the numbers, adding more jobs to the Government


Government and healthcare (quasi government) have been the leading job providers for months.
Posted by Hangit
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
40871 posts
Posted on 8/2/24 at 8:18 pm to
quote:

I’m not saying by any means the stock market is a recession indicator, but it is up 23% in the last year.


Now do it without the Magnificent 7.
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