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Weakening Travel Demand Forecasted for Airlines
Posted on 3/12/25 at 8:56 pm
Posted on 3/12/25 at 8:56 pm
I've been reading about this over the last few days especially with the Southwest recent news on their basic economy fares. In essence, all of the major airlines (Delta, American, United, and Southwest) are lowering their expectations for revenues due to 'weakening travel demand', the recent AA incident in DC/ DL incident in Toronto, and lower government travel. If you take a look at the airline stocks, they're all down ~20-30% over the last month.
LINK
Curious as to the boards thoughts on all of this. Are you going to be tightening your travel budget for the spring/summer? Doing domestic trips on a budget? On the lookout for great travel deals if no one else is traveling?
quote:
American, JetBlue, Southwest Airlines and United Airlines joined Delta in lowering their expectations for the first quarter. The common theme: a weak macroeconomic environment and lower consumer confidence, particularly after the AA5342 accident at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA) in January.
Unsaid was the cause of much of that economic uncertainty. Since President Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20, government travel spending has slowed dramatically, probationary federal employees have been laid off en mass and the administration has threatened or implemented steep tariffs on goods from China and some of the U.S.'s closest trading partners, including Canada and Mexico.
United has also been hit hard by the pullback in U.S. government spending thanks, in part, to its hub at Washington's Dulles International Airport (IAD). Government-related revenue is down by about half since the beginning of the year, CEO Scott Kirby said. The segment previously made up roughly 2% of United's global revenue.
LINK
Curious as to the boards thoughts on all of this. Are you going to be tightening your travel budget for the spring/summer? Doing domestic trips on a budget? On the lookout for great travel deals if no one else is traveling?
6
Posted on 3/12/25 at 10:31 pm to CuseTiger
Going to cut back on summer and fall trips, might go to Nashville with some friends. Far cry from the Hawaii trip I took last year though. Hoping to scoop up some deals over the next few months for the 25/26 ski season.
Posted on 3/12/25 at 10:38 pm to CuseTiger
I w got to go to Cincinnati, Fort Lauderdale, and Chicago in June/July for my son’s basketball team.
Flights are like $400 each to all those places right now… Will this get cheaper? When , in your opinion, is best time to lock in?
Flights are like $400 each to all those places right now… Will this get cheaper? When , in your opinion, is best time to lock in?
This post was edited on 3/12/25 at 10:39 pm
Posted on 3/13/25 at 7:45 am to CuseTiger
quote:
United has also been hit hard by the pullback in U.S. government spending thanks, in part, to its hub at Washington's Dulles International Airport (IAD). Government-related revenue is down by about half since the beginning of the year,
Aw, shucks.
My plans aren't changing. Heading somewhere overseas this fall for a week or two. Haven't decided where, but whatever they're blaming as the cause, it's not softening either business class seats, or economy travel during the summer busy season. Searching for SNN, DUB, MAN, and IST in July for ten days puts all the tickets, RT, at between $900 and $1300 (most expensive are to IST.) They look like basic economy fares, which is a pain in the arse to figure out (I had to click through to United.com to see this, on ITA/Google Flights it just showed "economy.") Close enough, even though I'd pay for seat selection, etc.
ITA Matrix appears to have removed the easy checkbox allowing you to restrict flight selection by alliance, you have to use codes (not hard to figure out, but much less convenient especially for non frequent flyers.)
Posted on 3/13/25 at 3:24 pm to CuseTiger
Airlines were cleaning up transporting illegals all over the country. Trump stopped that.
Posted on 3/13/25 at 6:05 pm to fargobison
quote:
Going to cut back on summer and fall trips
That's what I'm planning as well
quote:
I w got to go to Cincinnati, Fort Lauderdale, and Chicago in June/July for my son’s basketball team. Flights are like $400 each to all those places right now… Will this get cheaper? When , in your opinion, is best time to lock in?
I'd expect airlines trying to charge an arm and a leg for summer travel trying to maximize profits. When they see no one booking, they'll either reduce schedules or offer discounts. If you see a price you're comfortable with booking, I'd go ahead and book that. If the price goes down, you can rebook later and get an ecredit for the difference from most of the airlines
quote:
ITA Matrix appears to have removed the easy checkbox allowing you to restrict flight selection by alliance, you have to use codes
I'm one of the few who knows a few of those codes
Posted on 3/13/25 at 8:59 pm to CuseTiger
quote:
I'm one of the few who knows a few of those codes
Oh, I know. I speak in TK, LH, UA, too. I was warning everyone else, and those that don't know search parameters ( -UA means exclude UA, UA means include them, etc.)
One thing I did notice today was that it now tells you how much more you pay booking through a third party app for the same flights as it does booking direct through airline sites. While I didn't click through every link, it betrayed that the third parties make money by showing most consumers comparisons between "deals" through CrapPedia, etc., and not comparisons between the costs of the tickets direct. Lowest cost on CrapPedia may be 20% higher than what is listed on United, but you "got a great deal," because it was the lowest cost on the third party. It's like all the people that have sworn SWA (Southwest) has been a low cost airline for the last ten years and never looked anywhere else.
Posted on 3/13/25 at 11:11 pm to CuseTiger
I've already booked trips through March of next year so there's really nothing I can do about that now
The conflicting thing about this news is it should lead to more award availability.
The conflicting thing about this news is it should lead to more award availability.
Posted on 3/14/25 at 12:06 am to CuseTiger
We were looking at Europe this summer but flights were 30% more than 2 years ago so we decided to stay domestic. Was watching flights to NYC and returning from Hartford and they were $375 but dropped to $189 this week. Bought at that price.
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