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Sweep of Ole Miss won't be enough
Posted on 5/16/24 at 8:07 am
Posted on 5/16/24 at 8:07 am
If we happen to get a sweep, I still don't think it will be enough to be a lock for a regional. Historically, 13 SEC wins are at 30% odds at making a regional, 14 wins are 70%. Not a math guy, but I don't feel like 30% is good odds to gamble with. Going to have to win 1 in Hoover as well. What y'all think?
20
Posted on 5/16/24 at 8:09 am to HvacGoon
If we sweep ole miss we are in. If we don't we ain't. Pretty simple
Posted on 5/16/24 at 8:10 am to HvacGoon
This season with these SEC teams I think it will. Look at some of the bubble teams around us. Their metrics are way below ours.
Posted on 5/16/24 at 8:12 am to HvacGoon
It’s 38% of 13 win teams, not 30% and it would’ve been enough had we won the Bama series and OM series since we would’ve won 5 straight series, but now having lost the Bama series I could see it not being enough to finish 13-17.
We’d need some help (UF lose series to UGA and finish 12-18 & Vandy get swept by UK and finish 12-18), otherwise we’ll have to win some games in Hoover.
We’d need some help (UF lose series to UGA and finish 12-18 & Vandy get swept by UK and finish 12-18), otherwise we’ll have to win some games in Hoover.
Posted on 5/16/24 at 8:16 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
30% or 38%, still dog shite odds
Posted on 5/16/24 at 8:17 am to HvacGoon
The bubble is very weak. The conference record is the only negative. 13-17 with an RPI in the 20's with not a lot of strong cases for the final handful of spots will be good enough.
Posted on 5/16/24 at 8:17 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
otherwise we’ll have to win some games in Hoover.
I think we need to do this regardless
Posted on 5/16/24 at 8:22 am to HvacGoon
Posted on 5/16/24 at 8:26 am to BadaBingBadaBoom
quote:if we manage to sweep this weekend we’re going to be squarely on the bubble so it wouldn’t hurt.
I think we need to do this regardless
I’m definitely going to have my eye on Vandy @ #2 UK and UF @ #9 UGA series too though this weekend because I’m confident at least 9 SEC teams get in at a minimum and we’ll finish in 9th if those series pan out the way we hope plus an LSU sweep
Posted on 5/16/24 at 8:27 am to HvacGoon
I think sweeping Ol Piss may be enough.
38% is the odds for all teams. You need to see what the odds are for an SEC defending national champion or even just a tier one program.
There are plenty of at large births, LSU has a history that will count in the committees eyes.
38% is the odds for all teams. You need to see what the odds are for an SEC defending national champion or even just a tier one program.
There are plenty of at large births, LSU has a history that will count in the committees eyes.
Posted on 5/16/24 at 8:36 am to HvacGoon
quote:
Going to have to win 1 in Hoover as well. What y'all think?
They have shown time and time again that winning one or two games in the conference tournament don’t matter (same as losing the first game).
The only thing that keeps us out at 13 wins is if the small conferences have a bunch of teams win their tournament that shouldn’t have. Basically it gives the auto bid to teams that shouldn’t be there and can take away spots for bubble teams
Posted on 5/16/24 at 8:42 am to HvacGoon
Will getting swept be enough to stop you armchair analysts?
Posted on 5/16/24 at 8:42 am to HvacGoon
The SEC has 12 teams in the top 35 in RPI. There are teams that are going to host with RPIs lower than 30.
I mean, the coaches poll is still ranking LSU #38 in the nation
The SEC is as strong of a conference as it has ever been. The top 4 teams in the nation are SEC schools. If LSU gets 13, they are in. If they get 12, they have to get to the final in Hoover, and if they get 11, we don't have to have anymore conversations.
That 13 win/30% number doesn't play this year. The SEC has 8-9 teams that would finish first in other major conferences. You can see that by looking at the RPI and ELOs.
No way the committee won't (and frankly shouldn't) see this year as an outlier. IF LSU sweeps, they are undoubtedly in. This year, 13 wins is the equivalent of 14 most years.
I mean, the coaches poll is still ranking LSU #38 in the nation
The SEC is as strong of a conference as it has ever been. The top 4 teams in the nation are SEC schools. If LSU gets 13, they are in. If they get 12, they have to get to the final in Hoover, and if they get 11, we don't have to have anymore conversations.
That 13 win/30% number doesn't play this year. The SEC has 8-9 teams that would finish first in other major conferences. You can see that by looking at the RPI and ELOs.
No way the committee won't (and frankly shouldn't) see this year as an outlier. IF LSU sweeps, they are undoubtedly in. This year, 13 wins is the equivalent of 14 most years.
This post was edited on 5/16/24 at 8:49 am
Posted on 5/16/24 at 8:45 am to lsu4life77
we aren't getting swept bum
Posted on 5/16/24 at 8:46 am to HvacGoon
quote:
HvacGoon
Wrong
Posted on 5/16/24 at 8:50 am to HvacGoon
Posted on 5/16/24 at 8:53 am to HvacGoon
We would likely have and RPI high enough to make the tournament with 13 wins. Many of those 13 win teams that didn't make it had a 50+ RPI. Ours would likely be in the 20's
Posted on 5/16/24 at 9:32 am to HvacGoon
Imagine the draw for the 2-3 game if lsu is in any regional. I know ticket books are sold but I bet national tv ( espn, espn2 etc ) would show their games which means more viewers in a regional that may not get that much attention. While record, RPI, SOS plays a big part, don’t thing for a second if we get to 13 wins or 2 out of 3 and play on Saturday or Sunday in the SEC tournament the committee will give us a bid somewhere.
Posted on 5/16/24 at 9:38 am to HvacGoon
Nobody really knows. We can all look at precedent, etc. But, the committee has never been completely predictable.
Posted on 5/16/24 at 9:46 am to DRock88
Kendall Rogers with D1 Baseball says LSU is "golden" if we sweep
Also said that if we win 2 out of 3 and win 1 in the SEC tourney, we'll also get in
Let's just make it easy on ourselves and get the sweep!
Also said that if we win 2 out of 3 and win 1 in the SEC tourney, we'll also get in
Let's just make it easy on ourselves and get the sweep!
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