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Message
Almost 45 trying to determine where I want to be bond vs equity mix now that there is rate
Posted on 5/4/24 at 8:10 am
Posted on 5/4/24 at 8:10 am
Any good articles or suggested reading to determining portfolio mix?
Also my 6 month emergency is all Treasury ladders do I segregate that or cout towards my total mix
Interested in any feedback good or bad lol
Also my 6 month emergency is all Treasury ladders do I segregate that or cout towards my total mix
Interested in any feedback good or bad lol
6
Posted on 5/4/24 at 8:25 am to thelawnwranglers
The bond market has changed dramatically in the last few years with the amount of debt we have now.
It is experiencing historical draw downs that we have not seen before.
Bond prices are trading at 2013 levels
You are only 45, stay in the S&P 500 (even though only 10 of the companies are responsible for 90% of the growth) and consider a small portion of your portfolio to a hard asset that can't be printed out of this air (gold/BTC)
Seriously, at 45 there is no reason to have any money in bonds. If you were 70, my opinion on the matter would change slightly.
It is experiencing historical draw downs that we have not seen before.
Bond prices are trading at 2013 levels
You are only 45, stay in the S&P 500 (even though only 10 of the companies are responsible for 90% of the growth) and consider a small portion of your portfolio to a hard asset that can't be printed out of this air (gold/BTC)
Seriously, at 45 there is no reason to have any money in bonds. If you were 70, my opinion on the matter would change slightly.
Posted on 5/4/24 at 9:27 am to I Love Bama
I haven’t changed anything in my 401k in 12 years. Just went and looked and my bonds were sucking arse. Moved it to S&P 500 because it was out performing everything else I’m in except for my company stock.
Posted on 5/4/24 at 9:31 am to Rize
quote:
haven’t changed anything in my 401k in 12 years. Just went and looked and my bonds were sucking arse. Moved it to S&P 500 because it was out performing everything else I’m in except for my company stock.
Yeah that's my feeling still to young not to be mostly in
Posted on 5/4/24 at 9:33 am to thelawnwranglers
Yeah I’m 42 and need to get my shite together.
I didn’t know what the S&P 500 was until a couple weeks ago
and still don’t even know what all I’m invested in. I can see what all I have my money in but I have no idea what it is.
I didn’t know what the S&P 500 was until a couple weeks ago
and still don’t even know what all I’m invested in. I can see what all I have my money in but I have no idea what it is. This post was edited on 5/4/24 at 9:36 am
Posted on 5/4/24 at 9:33 am to thelawnwranglers
Why hold bonds? I’d rather bury cash in my back yard.
Posted on 5/4/24 at 2:04 pm to OTIS2
I’m the same age. Have an I-bond, as well as some CDs and T-bills that are laddered. Rest of my money is an 80/20 split.
While I could probably be more aggressive, I think diversity is important.
While I could probably be more aggressive, I think diversity is important.
Posted on 5/4/24 at 2:14 pm to thelawnwranglers
Some data shows over decades “small” caps outperform “large” caps.
I have 403b/457 in low cost funds.
Basically split into small cap, mid cap, and real estate.
I have a lot of money in individual stocks in other accounts. Majority is mega cap like Apple, Altria, Verizon, Proctor and Gamble, JNJ, etc.
I keep a good chunk of cash in money market and CDs in case I want a car or a trip or a major expense occurs.
I have 403b/457 in low cost funds.
Basically split into small cap, mid cap, and real estate.
I have a lot of money in individual stocks in other accounts. Majority is mega cap like Apple, Altria, Verizon, Proctor and Gamble, JNJ, etc.
I keep a good chunk of cash in money market and CDs in case I want a car or a trip or a major expense occurs.
Posted on 5/4/24 at 2:52 pm to thelawnwranglers
I'm 46 and 100% stocks. No plans to change that in the next 10 years.
Posted on 5/5/24 at 7:30 am to I Love Bama
quote:
The bond market has changed dramatically in the last few years with the amount of debt we have now.
It is experiencing historical draw downs that we have not seen before.
Bond prices are trading at 2013 levels
You are only 45, stay in the S&P 500 (even though only 10 of the companies are responsible for 90% of the growth) and consider a small portion of your portfolio to a hard asset that can't be printed out of this air (gold/BTC)
Seriously, at 45 there is no reason to have any money in bonds. If you were 70, my opinion on the matter would change slightly.
In a regime of fiscal dominance where debt/gdp must be shrunk to avoid govt insolvency long bonds are certificates of confiscation, reward free risk.
Posted on 5/5/24 at 10:20 am to Rize
Putting the majority of your money in the s&p500 isn't a bad idea. If you don't understand what the other options are, then you might go ahead and move that to the s&p as well.
Posted on 5/5/24 at 10:38 am to thelawnwranglers
quote:
Also my 6 month emergency is all Treasury ladders do I segregate that or count towards my total mix?
Segregate that. The whole point of an emergency fund is near instant liquidity in the event of an “emergency”, right?
So if you’re laddered in Treasury bills for that purpose, it would create a skew if you counted that in the total mix as you decide on appropriate allocations over time. At your age, in your (true) investment accounts, there’s little need for much if any bond allocation. Throwing in a light percentage of notes, preferred class and/or healthy dividend paying equities isn’t a bad idea. But again, at your age, I’d still lean toward having the heaviest allocation in growth equity products like ETFs and maybe some commons that don’t individually exceed 10% of the portfolio.
Posted on 5/5/24 at 12:37 pm to Rize
quote:
I haven’t changed anything in my 401k in 12 years. Just went and looked and my bonds were sucking arse. Moved it to S&P 500 because it was out performing everything else I’m in except for my company stock.
At the end of a rate hike cycle? You’re essentially selling at the bottom… the time to get out of bonds was when the fed starting raising rates. JMO.
The window for bonds to rally WITHOUT stock is still pretty dang small though. That’s the perverse thing about them. Rarely do they ever outperform, even when they “should”. Rates get cut bonds will go up, but only for a bit. Eventually stocks will bottom and start to outperform. Of course this is assuming that rate cuts happen because something broke and needs rescuing. Not the Fed just cutting to cut. If that happens bonds are still going to underperform.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 4:22 pm to thelawnwranglers
I’m the same age and just went through a financial analysis. I was told that I should be in an 80/20 mix compared to what I had, which was at 90/10
Posted on 5/6/24 at 5:34 pm to I Love Bama
quote:This.
You are only 45, stay in the S&P 500 (even though only 10 of the companies are responsible for 90% of the growth) and consider a small portion of your portfolio to a hard asset that can't be printed out of this air (gold/BTC)
Seriously, at 45 there is no reason to have any money in bonds. If you were 70, my opinion on the matter would change slightly.
I wish I could justify a significant bond position. ROI is just not competitive ... yet.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 5:42 pm to Bourre
quote:Given current ROI, I'd have to be hard pressed to go 20% bonds at age 45. Run the numbers, including taxes.
I should be in an 80/20 mix
Obviously nothing is guaranteed, but I'd look at other ways to diversify.
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