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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/15/24 at 2:50 pm to VolSquatch
Posted on 5/15/24 at 2:50 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
If the problem ended with Putin, or if his death wouldn't create more problems, it would have happened already.
This is certainly true.
Even if Yeltsin was "our buddy," he was launching similar wars to keep former satellites under Russian control while he was President... he was just infinitely more charming and cuddly.
The Estonians and Latvians and Lithuanians and Fins and Poles say "the problem isn't just Putin, it's Russia!" Historically, all Russian leaders have been obsessed with using those countries as their own security buffer.
This post was edited on 5/15/24 at 2:57 pm
1
Posted on 5/15/24 at 3:04 pm to CitizenK
Had some called beluga a few years back. Wasn't bad. I'm positive Russia still makes its own ak's and it's variants. But yes, plenty of eastern European variants out there. Had a Romanian 74 that wasn't too bad. Got a little too hot for my tastes though. Like smoldering hand guard hot
This post was edited on 5/15/24 at 3:05 pm
Posted on 5/15/24 at 3:13 pm to CitizenK
quote:
One side has problems manufacturing things that anyone will buy outside its borders. The other side is supply by nations which exports high quality finished goods
Russia the only country in this conflict which is mass producing heavy weapons for the battlefield.
We have service economies, that's why we're getting pushed around.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 3:16 pm to Lee B
quote:
The Estonians and Latvians and Lithuanians and Fins and Poles say "the problem isn't just Putin, it's Russia!" Historically, all Russian leaders have been obsessed with using those countries as their own security buffer.
The concept of buffer states or some form of barrier has been important to every great power in history. Its easy to criticize Russia historically for this, but they have never been the only power in their entire hemisphere (US) been an island (Britain) or been able to keep out your largest existential threat with just a wall (China, in theory anyway).
I think it creates some instability and paranoia among leadership that you don't see in many other places. France has a bit of that through their history too, and Germany.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 3:24 pm to Lee B
quote:
I wonder if a lot of the tepid-seeming approaches the US and West seem to take in this is somewhat due to the "if Putin falls immediately, what happens to the over 5,600 nukes scattered across 14 time zones?" thing?
This is probably very true, which means Ukraine is toast. US and West are too scared of escalating this conflict, which is exactly why Putin did all of this, because he knew the West doesn’t really have the guts to do what needs to be done to stop him in Ukraine. Russia is going to get what they want out of Ukraine. West should have been building up Ukraine long before 2022. Huge foreign policy and status quo failure from the West.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 3:29 pm to sta4ever
quote:
West should have been building up Ukraine long before 2022.
Big weapons deliveries would have spooked the Russians, it probably triggers an earlier invasion.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 3:41 pm to sta4ever
quote:
West should have been building up Ukraine long before 2022. Huge foreign policy and status quo failure from the West.
Or maybe the west should have stayed out of Ukraine and let it be a buffer between NATO and Russia. Who thought expanding NATO right up to Russia’s borders a few hundred km from Moscow was a great idea? At a minimum we had to see it was a big provocation that risked a war, right? Well here we are.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 3:41 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
The concept of buffer states or some form of barrier has been important to every great power in history. Its easy to criticize Russia historically for this, but they have never been the only power in their entire hemisphere (US) been an island (Britain) or been able to keep out your largest existential threat with just a wall (China, in theory anyway).
I think it creates some instability and paranoia among leadership that you don't see in many other places. France has a bit of that through their history too, and Germany.
Yep... even an Ocean wasn't enough for the US+UK, so we set up Breton Woods and NATO to make Western Europe buffer states between us and the Soviets.
And that seems to be ingrained in Russian thinking... and Putin is a paranoid of the highest order...
But who is trying to invade Russia these days? Well... aside from Poland, but we can hold them back.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 3:49 pm to SloaneRanger
quote:
Or maybe the west should have stayed out of Ukraine and let it be a buffer between NATO and Russia. Who thought expanding NATO right up to Russia’s borders a few hundred km from Moscow was a great idea? At a minimum we had to see it was a big provocation that risked a war, right? Well here we are.
You do know that at one point they were talking with Russia about JOINING NATO? Which... well, a secondary thing for the alliance is that it stops fighting between the member states over (in)security issues...
But AGAIN AGAIN AGAIN AGAIN... NATO is a defense-only pact. What does Russia have to fear if it isn't attacking members of NATO?
Posted on 5/15/24 at 3:51 pm to Lee B
and, Ukraine and ex-Soviet satellites want to join NATO so they're protected from Russian aggression... so...
Posted on 5/15/24 at 4:04 pm to SloaneRanger
quote:
Who thought expanding NATO right up to Russia’s borders a few hundred km from Moscow was a great idea
When did Ukraine join NATO? Must have missed that.
This post was edited on 5/15/24 at 4:05 pm
Posted on 5/15/24 at 4:13 pm to IAmNERD
First, you have to be kidding, right? The handwriting was on the wall as early as 2014. Russia saw what was coming and it caused them to act. Second, there are other NATO members that border on Russia. Whether you like or agree with it, Russia sees what has happened and feels threatened. That’s how wars start.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 4:16 pm to IAmNERD
quote:
quote:
Who thought expanding NATO right up to Russia’s borders a few hundred km from Moscow was a great idea
When did Ukraine join NATO? Must have missed that.
yep.
Some of their politicians and leaders expressed interest in joining NATO, and did some kind of early steps, but the public there seemed unconcerned with it...
But joining the EU, which they WERE trying to do (as was Georgia) was a step too far for Putin. The EU's watchdogs fight corruption, which would meddle in Russia's dealing with Ukraine... plus, you can't have a rising standard of living and prosperity right next door without causing problems in Russia due to their kleptocracy.
So should a sovereign Nation be able to chart its own Economic Course?
For Putin that seems to be the point where "they were never a Sovereign Nation... they never existed."
Posted on 5/15/24 at 4:20 pm to SloaneRanger
quote:
First, you have to be kidding, right? The handwriting was on the wall as early as 2014. Russia saw what was coming and it caused them to act. Second, there are other NATO members that border on Russia. Whether you like or agree with it, Russia sees what has happened and feels threatened. That’s how wars start.
There's more of them, now! As a direct result of this war. Lesson learned, NATO countries don't get invaded by Russia. Deterrent! Right up there with "Nuclear countries don't get invaded!" Or... the same thing, since NATO membership puts you under the US+UK+France nuclear umbrella.
Russian arms, etc., are not up to NATO specs and aren't bought by NATO countries (though, I think, some - like Hungary, of course - try to buck that and just do it, anyway)... so that's another piece of the pie.
This post was edited on 5/15/24 at 4:23 pm
Posted on 5/15/24 at 4:21 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Initially, ATACMS was getting through more than 66% of time, now it's somewhere in the single digits.
A key factor is the distance that the missile travels. Belbek Airfield is a relatively short distance from Ukrainian-held Kherson, so the time from launch to impact is very short, which gives Russian air defense very little time to react. Ukraine has a much better chance of hitting Belbek than a target further away (like Kerch).
The other variable is that we originally provided Ukraine with old, expired ATACMS, which have a lower survivability than the newer ATACMS missile variants.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 4:26 pm to GOP_Tiger
breaking/uncomfirmed...
Anton Gerashchenko
@Gerashchenko_en
Crimean Telegram channels report another attack on Belbek airfield in occupied Crimea. Reportedly, a fuel warehouse was hit and a fire started.
Hits on Gvardiysk airbase were also reported.
Information needs official confirmation.
Ukraine Battle Map
@ukraine_map
There are explosions and missiles heard in Sevastopol near Belbek Airfield, Simferopol, and Dzhankoi
A potential ATACMS attack by on Crimea is currently occurring
Anton Gerashchenko
@Gerashchenko_en
Crimean Telegram channels report another attack on Belbek airfield in occupied Crimea. Reportedly, a fuel warehouse was hit and a fire started.
Hits on Gvardiysk airbase were also reported.
Information needs official confirmation.
Ukraine Battle Map
@ukraine_map
There are explosions and missiles heard in Sevastopol near Belbek Airfield, Simferopol, and Dzhankoi
A potential ATACMS attack by on Crimea is currently occurring
This post was edited on 5/15/24 at 4:30 pm
Posted on 5/15/24 at 4:26 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Big weapons deliveries would have spooked the Russians, it probably triggers an earlier invasion.
We didn’t need big weapons deliveries. Could have been the time to get all the basic things built up, delivered, and out of the way though, so that they aren’t something you have to frantically figure out when a war, that everyone knew was inevitable, starts.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 4:26 pm to Lee B
quote:
NATO is a defense-only pact. What does Russia have to fear if it isn't attacking members of NATO?
The reincarnation of Peter The Great fears that NATO will get in the way of his dreams.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 4:29 pm to Lee B
quote:
For Putin that seems to be the point where "they were never a Sovereign Nation... they never existed."
Yet, Kiev was the dominant part of the Kievan Rus before Moscow was even a town.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 4:34 pm to Lee B
quote:
And... that's why all of the "Russia is obviously winning" stuff, to me, doesn't matter... if the collective West decides "there's no fricking way we're letting Putin win" he will be stopped
The industrial base to support that was dismantled decades ago.
It is what it is.
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