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re: ATL Thread | 2023 offseason hot takes + discussion

Posted on 12/4/23 at 12:15 pm to
Posted by volfan30
Member since Jun 2010
40956 posts
Posted on 12/4/23 at 12:15 pm to
Sounds like they got $5M or so from Seattle. If they can unload Gonzales for a little more salary relief they will be getting Kelenic for about the same amount they were paying Rosario + the prospect cost of Kowar and Phillips which is estimated at about $3 million.

How is that terrible? Kelenic is a million times better defensively, had a higher wRC+ last year, is two years removed from being a top 5 overall prospect and has 5 years of control.
Posted by volfan30
Member since Jun 2010
40956 posts
Posted on 12/4/23 at 12:16 pm to
AA dropped a young Joc Pederson comp on Kelenic today at the winter meetings by the way as far as how they view him internally.
Posted by 21zereaux
Member since Aug 2017
1369 posts
Posted on 12/4/23 at 12:23 pm to
Look, I know what I am about to post is obscenely silly based on all that we know, but just treat it as a ‘what if?’ scenario. I get to watch Hot Stove in the mornings and JP Morosi, who is a legit baseball reporter, keeps saying that there is some smoke between the Braves and Ohtani. Based on everything we know about AA I don’t see it happening, ever. Hypothetically DH for 24, pitching, in theory, in 25+ seems the likely path for Ohtani. What would that look like getting him on the roster? What fallout would take place if he were to sign?
Posted by K9
wayx....BOBO IN '19
Member since Sep 2012
24087 posts
Posted on 12/4/23 at 12:25 pm to
Can they give him stock options in braves or part ownership of battery profits? Lol I'm like you, don't see how we are still in convo when the floor is like 500 million
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
2246 posts
Posted on 12/4/23 at 12:30 pm to
quote:

JP Morosi, who is a legit baseball reporter, keeps saying that there is some smoke between the Braves and Ohtani. Based on everything we know about AA I don’t see it happening, ever. Hypothetically DH for 24, pitching, in theory, in 25+ seems the likely path for Ohtani. What would that look like getting him on the roster? What fallout would take place if he were to sign?


IMO the only way this happens is if we've been planning for it for years, which is certainly possible. In terms of philosphy I think it can fit into AA's baseball "worldview" so to speak in that he is basically two players (or at least 1.5 if you count extra rest) for the price of one, even if that player is outrageously expensive. Its also a way to generate a ton of hype, merch sales, attendance, and a boost in viewership.

I do think it would likely be a shorter deal for more AAV, but maybe other teams won't give him 10 or 12 years or whatever either.

I still think it'll be the Dodgers or Giants. But who knows.
Posted by POCKET
Member since Nov 2011
2609 posts
Posted on 12/4/23 at 12:46 pm to
What is Gonzalez’s trade value? Negative and we will have to attach a prospect to find a taker?
Posted by volfan30
Member since Jun 2010
40956 posts
Posted on 12/4/23 at 1:46 pm to
Negative by himself. Mariners are attaching $4.5 million to him though. If we send the $4.5 million and $1.5 million or so more with him I think he would have positive value in another deal as an innings eater at 1 yr/$6M and we would also save $6M.
Posted by VinegarStrokes
Georgia
Member since Oct 2015
13345 posts
Posted on 12/4/23 at 2:28 pm to
nothing to add, but I felt compelled to make this post to get us off of 666 replies. Don't need that bad juju getting in the way of a Shohei signing.
Posted by 21zereaux
Member since Aug 2017
1369 posts
Posted on 12/4/23 at 2:43 pm to
quote:

ts also a way to generate a ton of hype, merch sales, attendance, and a boost in viewership.


I’d think that is the only way Liberty would go for it, the extra revenue generated by having him there. The extra advertising dollars alone would be interesting.
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
2246 posts
Posted on 12/4/23 at 3:02 pm to
quote:

I’d think that is the only way Liberty would go for it, the extra revenue generated by having him there. The extra advertising dollars alone would be interesting.



People who are still kidding themselves will be in shortly to tell you Liberty has no input
This post was edited on 12/4/23 at 3:03 pm
Posted by 21zereaux
Member since Aug 2017
1369 posts
Posted on 12/5/23 at 9:09 pm to
https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1732234159039353104

quote:

The Pittsburgh Pirates are acquiring left-handed starter Marco Gonzales in a trade from the Atlanta Braves, sources tell ESPN. The Braves will send cash to the Pirates and receive a player to be named later.
Posted by volfan30
Member since Jun 2010
40956 posts
Posted on 12/5/23 at 9:17 pm to
Wonder how much cash we sent.

Good sign that we’re still planning on adding a significant arm.
Posted by Finkle is Einhorn
Member since Sep 2011
4251 posts
Posted on 12/5/23 at 9:48 pm to
Unless there’s some advanced metrics that show he’s better than his actual value I just don’t see anything good about this guy.

He’s hit .181, .142 and .253 in his 3 seasons. With 14, 7 and 11 HRs. I understand he’s young but there’s nothing impressive that I see with this guy. I would love to be wrong though.
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
2246 posts
Posted on 12/6/23 at 6:56 am to
quote:

Unless there’s some advanced metrics that show he’s better than his actual value I just don’t see anything good about this guy.

He’s hit .181, .142 and .253 in his 3 seasons. With 14, 7 and 11 HRs. I understand he’s young but there’s nothing impressive that I see with this guy. I would love to be wrong though.



I don't dive too deep into this stuff, but the base level "advanced stats" seem to suggest he hit at about his ceiling or maybe even got a little lucky and went over his head a bit last year. That said, maybe we get Chipper and whoever else working with him like they did Dansby and we turn his career around. Advanced stats don't take into account approach or other changes a player can make.
Posted by 21zereaux
Member since Aug 2017
1369 posts
Posted on 12/6/23 at 4:53 pm to
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/braves-leury-garcia-agree-to-minor-league-contract.html

quote:

The Braves are in agreement with Leury García on a minor league deal, as first reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. Robert Murray of FanSided tweets the utility player will get a look in big league Spring Training
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
71432 posts
Posted on 12/6/23 at 4:56 pm to
The new Adrianza
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
71432 posts
Posted on 12/6/23 at 10:17 pm to
D-Backs sign Eduardo Rodriguez for $80m/4yr.

We would've had that money if we declined Morton's option.
Posted by lsusa
Doing Missionary work for LSU
Member since Oct 2005
4662 posts
Posted on 12/6/23 at 11:11 pm to
quote:

D-Backs sign Eduardo Rodriguez for $80m/4yr. We would've had that money if we declined Morton's option.


I’d much rather pay ER $20 million for one season than Morton.

I’m not sure if I’d rather have $60 million available 25-27 or ER more.


Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
71432 posts
Posted on 12/7/23 at 12:09 am to
quote:

I’m not sure if I’d rather have $60 million available 25-27 or ER more.



Considering we lose Fried after next season, give me a solid starting pitcher behind Strider through 27.
Posted by PJinAtl
Atlanta
Member since Nov 2007
12762 posts
Posted on 12/7/23 at 10:56 am to
quote:

Its also a way to generate a ton of hype, merch sales, attendance, and a boost in viewership.

How much of a percentage of merch sales do clubs get from the online stores? I know Ohtani would sell jerseys/etc. here in Atlanta, but I would think a majority of the sales would come from outside the Atlanta market via online storefronts. How much would the team get from that?

quote:

I still think it'll be the Dodgers or Giants.

Same here. How many big name Japanese players have spent the bulk of their careers anywhere other than the west coast? The only one I can think of is Yu Darvish with the Rangers/Cubs. I would think the west coast teams are attractive because it is a shorter flight for fans/media flying over from Japan. But Tokyo to ATL is only about 2.5 hours longer than Tokyo to LAX on direct flights.
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