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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 5/2/24 at 12:56 pm to
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
36090 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 12:56 pm to
quote:

How much longer does everyone think before Russia gets a break through in the lines? I think it is getting worse by the day. At some point Ukraine is going to crack. It may not be over run but I think they will give up some big areas. Ukraine is being smart by reacting to Russian attacks but it will only take one mistake and Russia will exploit it. Not enough men on the lines for Ukraine.


It seems that way, but despite all the doom and gloom on the Ukraine side; for some reason Russia has not broken through in a major thrust.
Posted by Pfft
Member since Jul 2014
3695 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 1:01 pm to
I cant imagine being in those trenches for a day much less the months and years these guys have been there.
It is a sad thing that we do this to each other.
And we rinse and repeat constantly.
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
2020 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 1:26 pm to
You haven't refuted anything I've posted with any actual evidence. I'm not some economic savant, but I obviously know more than you.

Granted, low bar there.
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
2539 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 1:37 pm to
Russian Gazprom suffers net loss of almost US$6.7 billion in 2023
Thursday, 2 May 2024, 17:56

Russian Gazprom reported a financial loss of RUB 629 billion (almost US$6.7 billion) in 2023, compared to a net profit of RUB 1.226 trillion (US$13 billion) in 2022.

Source: Gazprom's report on International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS)

Details: It is expected that in the first quarter of 2024, Gazprom lost over RUB 47 billion (US$501 million) on sales, compared to a profit of RUB 125.4 billion (US$1.34 billion) the previous year.

In addition, Gazprom's revenue fell by 27% last year to RUB 8.54 trillion from RUB 11.7 trillion in 2022.

The energy company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) amounted to RUB 618.369 billion, compared to RUB 2.798 trillion the previous year.

Ukrainska Pravda
Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
22411 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 2:46 pm to
quote:


"I'm Not Ruling Anything Out" - Macron Says Troops for Ukraine Possible if Russia Breaks Front Lines



Macron is a windbag like 3-4 posters on here. He likes to make statements to get his 30 minutes of press but he never comes through on anything he says. He is almost as weak as Scholz but with a bigger ego and mouth.

Sadly for Ukraine they have hitched their wagon to Western European countries, the US and Canada whose leaders have the spine of a caterpillar and in one case a dementia patient.

Putin knew who he was up against when he started this.

This post was edited on 5/2/24 at 3:07 pm
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9542 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 3:13 pm to
quote:

Russian Gazprom reported a financial loss of RUB 629 billion (almost US$6.7 billion) in 2023, compared to a net profit of RUB 1.226 trillion (US$13 billion) in 2022.


Yet Gazprom had to play games with "outages" in 2021 and 2020 causing the spot market to rise in Europe in an Enron manner.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
36090 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 3:15 pm to
quote:

Putin knew who he was up against when he started this.
m

Yet ten years after he started the war and two years after his “special operation”, he can not vanquish Ukraine. In fact he isn’t that much better off than he was before the SO began.

People ridicule Zelensky but in my opinion he has out performed Putin, Biden, Johnson, Macron, and all the others.
Posted by LSU7096
Houston
Member since May 2004
2498 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 3:18 pm to
No voter ID
Mail in voting
No signature matching
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
2020 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 3:28 pm to
quote:

People ridicule Zelensky but in my opinion he has out performed Putin, Biden, Johnson, Macron, and all the others.


I am shocked that this is your opinion
Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
22411 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 3:29 pm to
Yes,,but Putin has an objective and he is willing to make any sacrifice to achieve it. He has actually doubled down. He knew all he had to do is hang on. Putin don't give a damn regarding the sacrifices that the Russian people have to make. That is their history. Putin will not quit unless he.is thoroughly defeated. Russia hasn't changed one bit since the fall of the Soviet Union. They did not have to go through a cleansing, de-nazification or what happened to Japan after WWII. Russia was never cleansed of the Soviet structures. That is the difference.
When war gets to a state of attrition the side that can or produces the most wins. For example, the Eastern front in WWII. The Nazis had to knockout the Soviets quickly. Even they knew that. When that didn't happen and the front stalled, it was over. Germany could not out produce the Soviets in material or manpower and the rest is history.

Ukraine's manpower shortage is critical and the west has not delivered the materials needed for Ukraine to win. That chance was missed in 2022.
This post was edited on 5/2/24 at 3:38 pm
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9542 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 3:30 pm to
quote:

How much longer does everyone think before Russia gets a break through in the lines?
I think it is getting worse by the day. At some point Ukraine is going to crack. It may not be over run but I think they will give up some big areas.


Who knows? Most everyone thought that Russia would keep its march in 2022. It suffered some defeats and loss of territory.
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
2020 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 3:39 pm to
quote:

How much longer does everyone think before Russia gets a break through in the lines?
I think it is getting worse by the day. At some point Ukraine is going to crack. It may not be over run but I think they will give up some big areas.
Ukraine is being smart by reacting to Russian attacks but it will only take one mistake and Russia will exploit it. Not enough men on the lines for Ukraine.


I am starting to wonder if Russia's advances are more just moving the lines to include certain towns/villages rather than really trying to gain much ground.

Once they take some of these contested towns there is a lot of open ground between them and the next town..... it doesn't really make strategic sense to push too far and end up sitting out in the open.

Given Russia's tactics historically haven't always been exactly "stand up" in a moral sense, I could see them just taking the nearby towns and using the people still in them as human shields, i.e. Gaza. If there are even many residents left... I don't know which areas have been totally evacuated, if any.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9542 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 3:42 pm to
quote:

Germany could not out produce the Soviets in material or manpower and the rest is history.


part of the issue was Germany made tanks one by one, handfitting parts like a Rolls Royce. Russia used Henry Ford methods of assembly line mass production. Also consider that every German offense stopped when it ran out of enough fuel to maneuver. Rommel could well have taken Egypt crossed the Suez and marched up to take oilfields in the Middle East (Syria) then the oilfields in Iran if he had enough fuel. So he was actually stopped before Montgomery assumed command in North Africa.

Russia was once a manufacturing powerhouse but it has lost all of that and is dependent on imports to have the tooling necessary to build anything. It has been dependent on the West and now is dependent on China for technology even to keep its Western built refineries and chemical plants operating.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
36090 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 3:46 pm to
quote:

Yes,,but Putin has an objective


Yes to conquer Ukraine.

quote:

He has actually doubled down
Because he lost his first bet and then decided he couldn’t accept defeat.

quote] He knew all he had to do is hang on[/quote] Actually he learned the hard way, the only way he could win was to wear Ukrsine down.

By every measure Putin has fallen short to date. He began having a major advantage, and two years after his two year special operation is over he has been reduced to grinding Ukraine down.

He is certainly not a military genius, he just is the dictator of a large nation trying to impose his will on a much smaller and having a hard time doing it.
This post was edited on 5/2/24 at 3:47 pm
Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
22411 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 3:52 pm to
quote:

Russia was once a manufacturing powerhouse but it has lost all of that and is dependent on imports to have the tooling necessary to build anything. It has been dependent on the West and now is dependent on China for technology even to keep its Western built refineries and chemical plants operating.


They are still.out producing or obtaining more than the west has provided. Plus their enormous stock piles left over from the cold war.

But most importantly, they can produce far more men than Ukraine can.

2022 was Ukraine's chance and that opportunity was wasted.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9542 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 3:53 pm to
You start at 1985 not 1980 when interest rates were close to 20% Those rates matter a lot. All you have to do is look around and see all the toys and gadgets people have today compared to even 1990 to see even hood rats are better off materially. The housing market took off around 2001 when the Fed dropped rates from 6% to under 2% in just over a year.

Industrial sales for me (the company I own) were good in 2022 because interest rates were near ZERO so cost of money was cheap for manufacturers. They were able to modernize and expand as a result. Now the biggest problem with fabrication for refining and chemical processing in the USA has been the boomers retirement party. It's been looming since 2000. There are definite labor shortages where blue collar skills are needed. Fabrication yards have about 50% of the labor they need to build everything they could take orders for and be profitable. Industrial contractors have had to offer guaranteed overtime, travel expense (per diem) to locals, just to get enough workers and at double the base pay from 2000.
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
2020 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 3:57 pm to
I started in 1980 because thats the year I had good income statistics for.

Per Bankrate the average 1985 mortgage rate was 12.43%, 1980 was 13.74%
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
2020 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 3:59 pm to
quote:

They are still.out producing or obtaining more than the west has provided. Plus their enormous stock piles left over from the cold war.


The west can FAR out produce Russia if we choose to buckle down and do it. The problem for the US specifically is how defense contracts work... its way more expensive for us to produce equivalent stuff.
Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
22411 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 4:02 pm to
quote:

By every measure Putin has fallen short to date.


I agree, but so did Stalin and the Soviets until the war reached a specific stage. After that, the Germans were on the backfoot. The war may have reached that stage for Ukraine.

I still say I will not be shocked to see a collapse in the lines going into the summer. Maybe I'm wrong.

And regarding Putin, he knows the game is up if he loses. They are pretty confident at the moment, Rolling all of that captured/destroyed western equipment into Moscow for May Day. They believe the tide has turned.

If Putin wins this, he will say: " You see we defeated Ukraine, Nato and the West."
Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
22411 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 4:09 pm to
quote:

The west can FAR out produce Russia if we choose to buckle down and do it.


Yes, but have they done it?

Germany has completely shutdown Taurus production. What about the EU and those million shells that they promised to produce?

In truth the capability is not there and won't be for a long time. The Europeans hollowed out their militaries and military production and spent it on social welfare while hiding under the protection.of the US taxpayer.
This post was edited on 5/2/24 at 4:10 pm
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