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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/2/24 at 4:11 pm to AU86
Posted on 5/2/24 at 4:11 pm to AU86
quote:
If Putin wins this, he will say: " You see we defeated Ukraine, Nato and the West."
You're right about your earlier statement, too... Putin's guiding philosophy is that "Democracy" is a weakness because "the people" have no tolerance for inconvenience and are easily manipulated (and Russia internally brags about how they manipulate Americans with social media operations). "Let's see how Europe likes being cold this winter without our gas, then watch them force their leaders to abandon Ukraine," etc.
He seized this as his opportunity to prove that to the world, so other strongmen dictators will stop fearing retaliation by "The West."
2
Posted on 5/2/24 at 4:16 pm to doubleb
quote:
It seems that way, but despite all the doom and gloom on the Ukraine side; for some reason Russia has not broken through in a major thrust.
They sure have sent a lot of men and materiel through the meat grinder trying though.
Posted on 5/2/24 at 4:21 pm to AU86
quote:
The Europeans hollowed out their militaries and military production and spent it on social welfare while hiding under the protection.of the US taxpayer.
I don't think many envisioned trench and mortar round warfare in the 21st Century...
But we kind of wanted them in the position they are in... frankly, we convinced Western Europe to be human shields between the US and the USSR/Eastern Bloc. We didn't want them fighting among each other, necessarily, and weakening that... we wanted them to be dependent on our leadership and especially our Nuclear Umbrella. That stopped making sense with the dissolution of the USSR and Eastern Bloc. I still think we don't want Nukes proliferating everywhere...
Posted on 5/2/24 at 4:27 pm to Lee B
The US doesn't want Europe to be too big in producing their own weapons. Too much money to be made by the MIC in the US. That was probably part of the equation, we will do the heavy lifting but buy your weapons.and weapon systems from.us.
Macron is screaming for Europe to build its own MIC.
Macron is screaming for Europe to build its own MIC.
Posted on 5/2/24 at 4:29 pm to Lee B
quote:
We didn't want them fighting among each other, necessarily, and weakening that... we wanted them to be dependent on our leadership and especially our Nuclear Umbrella.
I agree with that. And I will give NATO credit for stopping/limiting those wars in Europe for 75 years.
Posted on 5/2/24 at 4:30 pm to AU86
quote:
2022 was Ukraine's chance and that opportunity was wasted.
Unlike the Russians, the American and NATO military doesn't depend so much on artillery, but air and armor. Meanwhile, Ukraine is advised by US and NATO, but they don't have the air power to make it work since Russia still has some air superiority.
Ukraine needs a bunch of F16's with contractor pilots and maintenance to augment Ukraine's pilots and maintenance crews in training.
Posted on 5/2/24 at 4:34 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
They sure have sent a lot of men and materiel through the meat grinder trying though.
I have heard a report that is suppose to be true that a Russian soldier that got killed his mother received an amount of money from the government when it happened. She bought a house and started renovating but ran out of funds. She has now sent her youngest son to the military and Ukraine.
Posted on 5/2/24 at 4:38 pm to AU86
quote:
And regarding Putin, he knows the game is up if he loses
Looks to me like one thing that could get Putin removed is the fact that his war has been bad for many of the Russian oligarchs' business interests. Some have turned on him and died as a result, but I suspect that there is lots of stuff simmering under the opaque surface.
Putin could have taken the path of peace and prosperity, but he chose a war of aggression instead.
Posted on 5/2/24 at 4:47 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
Putin could have taken the path of peace and prosperity, but he chose a war of aggression instead.
Besides his economy, if he wins in Ukraine he will consider it a victory. He is in the process of getting Georgia back as we speak and he will eventually get Moldova.
I still say 1 year after this is over the Germans and other European countries will be back trading with him. That is what he is betting on. Medvevdev has already stated: "The west will bitch and moan for awhile, but they will come crawling back. They always do."
They know the west and its leaders. All they have to do is.mention NUCLEAR and they know the reaction of the weak western leaders.
Escalation Management has not worked. The US has engaged in that strategy in every conflict starting with the Korean war. And what is our track record in regards to conflicts since then?
This post was edited on 5/2/24 at 4:53 pm
Posted on 5/2/24 at 5:11 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
The problem for the US specifically is how defense contracts work... its way more expensive for us to produce equivalent stuff.
Yes because the defense manufacturing was gutted by Clinton then more by Obama. Many facilities were shuttered. Yes because of labor cost. No because Russia is full of economic inefficiencies. Even its cash cow, oil and gas, is very inefficient.
As an example Australians make a lot of money per hour, their unions have made cost per widget many times greater than the USA. It was a real eye opener when assessing cost to dismantle a refinery owned by Shell near Sydney as to how low the labor productivity was in 2914. Lots of standing around with fingers up their butt type of labor with forced to hire oversized work crews. So, dollars per hour wages is no real indication of cost per widget cost
Posted on 5/2/24 at 5:18 pm to AU86
quote:
Besides his economy,
He has wrecked the economy other than for war. Russia may well collapse economically when the war ends, unless another war. How will he pay for the wars to continue? It's not like Russia is making bank on sales of refined products or playing Enron games with the EU via Gazprom any longer like they could through 1/3 of 2022 and the two years before.
This post was edited on 5/2/24 at 5:25 pm
Posted on 5/2/24 at 5:36 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
Putin could have taken the path of peace and prosperity, but he chose a war of aggression instead.
There can be no peace for the strongman. If there is no enemy and no "heroic" struggle the people see they're being screwed and cheated.
Putin owns the Oligarchs. They will not take him down.
Posted on 5/2/24 at 5:43 pm to Lee B
quote:
Putin owns the Oligarchs. They will not take him down.
I have to admit: I've been impressed with his ability to keep them in line. Of course he has thick files on each of them. They all have daughters in Paris and London etc. And none of them want to wake up to a snuff film where their kid is the feature being gang raped by a pack of African immigrants before having their throat slit.
But even Putin can only get away with so much for so long. If he doesn't deliver Ukraine -- and all the promises associated with its plunder -- he'll be the one in the snuff film.
Posted on 5/2/24 at 6:02 pm to No Colors
For fricks sake.
Not a sky is falling Russia is taking over post, but ffs we look so weak in many areas. We just keep emboldening the same behavior we’re throwing hundreds of billions against. Same with Israel, we support Israel and simultaneously spend $320 million on a port for Gaza aid we know is held hostage by Hamas and not helping any suffering citizens. I won’t get on the domestic bs with Palestinian support
Posted on 5/2/24 at 7:05 pm to DabosDynasty
OSINTtechnical
@Osinttechnical
Per VOA, the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant is now producing more than 36,000 155mm shells per month.
Before 2022, the plant produced roughly 7,000 shells per month; the Army aimed to hit 35,000 shells per month by 2027. SCAAP beat that goal by over two years.
source...
Carla Babb
@CarlaBabbVOA
155mm production in Scranton and Wilkes-Barre last month ramped up to more than 36,000 shells, their highest in decades, Army's Doug Bush tells reporters.
@Osinttechnical
Per VOA, the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant is now producing more than 36,000 155mm shells per month.
Before 2022, the plant produced roughly 7,000 shells per month; the Army aimed to hit 35,000 shells per month by 2027. SCAAP beat that goal by over two years.
source...
Carla Babb
@CarlaBabbVOA
155mm production in Scranton and Wilkes-Barre last month ramped up to more than 36,000 shells, their highest in decades, Army's Doug Bush tells reporters.
Posted on 5/2/24 at 7:21 pm to CitizenK
The anti Trump video released by the Ukrainian soldiers makes my blood boil. I am now rooting for Russia to dominate this war and take what they want, provided it is in a Christian manner and within the regulations of the Geneva Convention.
Posted on 5/2/24 at 7:26 pm to CitizenK
US Defense production contracts are setup for efficiency at a fairly low rate for anything complex. Always a battle of numbers, per unit costs, life time costs and production totals.
Long- lead items are exactly that and can't be turned on quickly in most cases. Many involve non-US sources, whether raw materials or finished product.
DoD assumed that large numbers over an extended time would not ever really be needed.
Hopefully this is a wake-up call but it's costing Ukrainians lives and US money.
Long- lead items are exactly that and can't be turned on quickly in most cases. Many involve non-US sources, whether raw materials or finished product.
DoD assumed that large numbers over an extended time would not ever really be needed.
Hopefully this is a wake-up call but it's costing Ukrainians lives and US money.
Posted on 5/2/24 at 8:20 pm to Pfft
quote:
How much longer does everyone think before Russia gets a break through in the lines?
Russia has repeatedly demonstrated in this war that they lack the capability to exploit openings with true breakthroughs.
Posted on 5/2/24 at 8:45 pm to SirWinston
quote:
provided it is in a Christian manner
You've said some bizarre shite on here.
But do us all a favor and explain how an aggressive war of conquest is conducted in a "Christian manner".
This post was edited on 5/2/24 at 8:45 pm
Posted on 5/2/24 at 8:49 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Russia has repeatedly demonstrated in this war that they lack the capability to exploit openings with true breakthroughs.
Exploiting a breakthrough has traditionally included combined arms maneuver warfare with a big punch of armor. And lots of IFVs and BMPs and MBTs. And trucks. Lots and lots of trucks to supply the lead columns in the breakthrough.
But that won't work in this war. Any sort of armored thrust would get obliterated by drones and artillery and HIMARS etc.
Russia will have to push forward across a broad front with a crush of artillery. Except no one has the shells anymore. The days of firing 80,000 shells per day are over..
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