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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/14/24 at 8:38 am to Hateradedrink
Posted on 5/14/24 at 8:38 am to Hateradedrink
quote:.
Hateradedrink
I literally said in my first post on the subject that we are almost certainly looking at a different leader by the time they rebuild their military, which could be a bad thing.
1
Posted on 5/14/24 at 8:40 am to CitizenK
quote:
Then they will be made in China. Demographic collapse has already doomed Russia. It has to already import labor worse. It imported skilled labor from Eastern Europe nations pre 2022, and that has dried up.
And wherever its made, the end result is the same. A better equipped Russian military with who knows what kind of leader by then.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 8:50 am to VolSquatch
quote:
And wherever its made, the end result is the same. A better equipped Russian military with who knows what kind of leader by then.
Russia had no idea what QA/QC is. Made better?
Posted on 5/14/24 at 8:56 am to VolSquatch
It’s also not short-term. You just disagree on the outcome after 20 years.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:00 am to VolSquatch
quote:
You're looking at this short term. Their military likely won't be strengthened during this war, but in the years after its entirely possible if not the most likely outcome that the equipment they are pulling out of storage will be replaced with newly manufactured equipment. Its unlikely that a nation as large and with as many people and natural resources as Russia just withers away into a shell of itself and not rebuild its military, regardless of the result of the Ukraine War.
Russia faces a number of issues. They’re cut off from trading with the “west” for the next 5+ years, minimum, likely the next 10+ years.
They’re proving their equipment is junk compared to old NATO kit, so they’re losing billions of future contracts on weapons.
They’ve lost 1m+ educated young people. The engine of their future bailed.
And they’ve done that … to gain more coal and oil. They already had a lot of both.
It’ll be 10+ years before they can get their act together. They’ll fall further behind in that timeframe. And that’s just some of it, not factoring in demographics, etc.
In short: stupid move to invade.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:02 am to CitizenK
quote:
Made better?
Would you rather have a product made in the 60's with poor QC or made in the 2020's with poor QC?
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:04 am to Hateradedrink
quote:
It’s also not short-term. You just disagree on the outcome after 20 years.
Nah, he just wants to be a contrarian flying against reality. Same old arguments long ago debunked.
The whole thing that Russia can roll out arms like an automobile plant assembly line is a ludicrous fantasy. They don't have the labor force and motivation to do more than drag arse when/if they are sober for little pay often suspended. While not the same level as gorillas in Uganda skills, not much above it.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:09 am to RuLSU
quote:
It’ll be 10+ years before they can get their act together. They’ll fall further behind in that timeframe. And that’s just some of it, not factoring in demographics, etc.
That scenario also plays into mine. Lets journey 10+ years into the future when they finally do get their act together (and I'm grading on a curve here, because Russia having its act together isn't the same as say the US).... they either have a new leader by then or will very soon, they still have a ton of natural resources, an economy that at the very least is a higher % focused on weapons and equipment for war than it was in 2021, and you've got the economic unrest from all of these sanctions.
That seems like a very possible outcome and its a recipe for something awful.
quote:
They’re cut off from trading with the “west” for the next 5+ years, minimum, likely the next 10+ years.
On this point I'm not so sure. It really depends on how long the conflict goes and how it ends. We've already seen some selective easing of sanctions during the war, not sure they are going to get hammered after since that will just strengthen the BRICS.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:16 am to CitizenK
quote:
Nah, he just wants to be a contrarian flying against reality. Same old arguments long ago debunked.
And you just try to find minute points to nit pick (and you're doing a piss poor job at that, as usual) instead of addressing the broader issue that we could be creating a monster with an unpredictable ruler that we can't deal with easily by trying to grind down one that has shown to be inept and ruled by someone who is a thug but is nothing if not predictable.
quote:
The whole thing that Russia can roll out arms like an automobile plant assembly line is a ludicrous fantasy.
Didn't claim they could. We could be talking several decades of buildup here. It was 20 years from the end of WW1 to the start of WW2 even for Germany who had a far more capable manufacturing system than Russia has. You don't have to be busting arse making hundreds of tanks per month if you do it over decades.
I know its hard for you to look any further than 2 weeks from now when you get your next payment of Zelensky Bucks for shilling on TigerDroppings, but there actually are long term consequences to what we decide to do today.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:17 am to VolSquatch
quote:
Therefore if we "grind Russia down" and don't plan on going in ourselves with NATO to finish the job, all we are really doing is strengthening their military and their military economy long term.
Yes
New equipment will make up a much larger percentage of their force when this is over, and it will be more modern, with changes and updates that reflect their experience fighting in Ukraine.
Their relative industrial advantage will also increase.
quote:
We also know for a fact there is an effort to transition the Russian economy to a wartime economy.
They did that two years ago.
This post was edited on 5/15/24 at 8:23 am
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:17 am to Hateradedrink
quote:
It’s also not short-term. You just disagree on the outcome after 20 years.
I'm not predicting an outcome after 20 years. Thats foolish. I'm laying out a possibility based on facts we have now. Sorry that you don't like it
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:19 am to CitizenK
quote:
They don't have the labor force and motivation to do more than drag arse when/if they are sober for little pay often suspended. While not the same level as gorillas in Uganda skills, not much above it.
Your bizarre racism is something I don’t understand.
What did the Russians do to you?
This post was edited on 5/14/24 at 1:29 pm
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:20 am to VolSquatch
quote:
Then they will be made in China. Demographic collapse has already doomed Russia. It has to already import labor worse. It imported skilled labor from Eastern Europe nations pre 2022, and that has dried up. And wherever its made, the end result is the same. A better equipped Russian military with who knows what kind of leader by then.
Ask Iraq how Chinese equipment fared compared to their soviet equipment. Russia rearmed with Chinese equipment is still a weaker than Russia was on 2/22/22.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:21 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
You’re bizarre racism is something I don’t understand.
Dude clearly is Ukrainian or at the very least has family there, he is so invested in this and gets so mad about any point that isnt 100% in Ukraine's favor. He gobbles Zelensky's knob like its going to give him eternal life
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:22 am to WeeWee
quote:
Ask Iraq how Chinese equipment fared compared to their soviet equipment. Russia rearmed with Chinese equipment is still a weaker than Russia was on 2/22/22.
Chinese equipment is probably worse than the best equipment Russia has now, but is it worse than equipment from the 60's and earlier? I highly doubt it.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:24 am to VolSquatch
analogue is far easier to repair than digital
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:25 am to AU86
I have some questions for those in the know:
What is the number of replacement troops that Ukraine has taken in per month over the last 6 months/ year?
What is the actual troop ratio of Ukraine to Russia now on the front lines? I have heard it is 1.5 to 1 in favor of Russia.
How many recruits/conscripts is Ukraine currently getting per month? What are they getting vs. What do they need?
What is the length of time for their training? How long is it taking to get them to the frontline? I have heard two weeks, but I don't really know.
Does anyone have accurate knowledge of this? Thanks.
What is the number of replacement troops that Ukraine has taken in per month over the last 6 months/ year?
What is the actual troop ratio of Ukraine to Russia now on the front lines? I have heard it is 1.5 to 1 in favor of Russia.
How many recruits/conscripts is Ukraine currently getting per month? What are they getting vs. What do they need?
What is the length of time for their training? How long is it taking to get them to the frontline? I have heard two weeks, but I don't really know.
Does anyone have accurate knowledge of this? Thanks.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:26 am to RuLSU
quote:
They’re proving their equipment is junk compared to old NATO kit, so they’re losing billions of future contracts on weapons.
I don’t agree with that blanket statement. With tanks for example, the Soviet Russian designs are outperforming ours.
It’s partly weight, our tanks are too heavy. And that’s a problem for long periods of the year. But it’s also reliability. They break down more often and it’s much harder to repair them in the field than it is with the Soviet/Russian ones.
There’s a useful lesson for us here.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:26 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
New equipment will make up a much larger percentage of their force when this is over, and it will be more modern, with changes and updates that reflect their experience fighting in Ukraine.
Are you high or just stupid? The vast majority (~90%) of new Russian equipment produced last year was 50 year old equipment taken from storage.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:28 am to WeeWee
quote:
Are you high or just stupid? The vast majority (~90%) of new Russian equipment produced last year was 50 year old equipment taken from storage.
And what happens when that is replaced? They gonna build a time machine and get even older stuff? Or will it be newly manufactured?
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