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BABIP - Batting Average On Balls in Play
Posted on 4/3/24 at 3:22 am
Posted on 4/3/24 at 3:22 am
Ran the numbers to see what our team BABIP is.
For those not familiar, BABIP indicates how lucky/unlucky you are with regard to where you are hitting the ball. For reference, MLB average is ~.300. If BABIP > .300, you’re “hitting it where they ain’t”; if BABIP under .300, you’re “hitting it right at ‘em”. Should run a bit higher than .300 in college given the level of defender is not that of the MLB.
So here are the numbers..
LSU Overall BABIP: .326
Opponents overall BABIP: .332
LSU SEC Conf BABIP: .280
SEC Opponents BABIP: .354
One could argue our hitters have been unlucky in SEC play, with our opponents being pretty damn lucky at the same time. The good news: these numbers will mean revert over time, assuming we consistently make hard contact on par with our opponents.
Only caveat: I’m not accounting for exit velocity. It’s possible we have a way lower avg exit velocity than our SEC opponents, which could contribute to the lower BABIP.
Only other plausible explanation is Wanaka is sabotaging us from the inside, putting our guys out of position defensively.
In short, THERE IS HOPE
For those not familiar, BABIP indicates how lucky/unlucky you are with regard to where you are hitting the ball. For reference, MLB average is ~.300. If BABIP > .300, you’re “hitting it where they ain’t”; if BABIP under .300, you’re “hitting it right at ‘em”. Should run a bit higher than .300 in college given the level of defender is not that of the MLB.
So here are the numbers..
LSU Overall BABIP: .326
Opponents overall BABIP: .332
LSU SEC Conf BABIP: .280
SEC Opponents BABIP: .354
One could argue our hitters have been unlucky in SEC play, with our opponents being pretty damn lucky at the same time. The good news: these numbers will mean revert over time, assuming we consistently make hard contact on par with our opponents.
Only caveat: I’m not accounting for exit velocity. It’s possible we have a way lower avg exit velocity than our SEC opponents, which could contribute to the lower BABIP.
Only other plausible explanation is Wanaka is sabotaging us from the inside, putting our guys out of position defensively.
In short, THERE IS HOPE
14
Posted on 4/3/24 at 3:30 am to LeGOAT
Kind of a weird thing to deep dive and post at 3AM
Posted on 4/3/24 at 5:30 am to LeGOAT
I can add to this.
Per d1 stats
From a pitching standpoint:
Lsu has a defensive/pitching babip of .332, 3rd worst in the conference. Their 3.04 siera is 3rd best in conference, so they have definitely been on the unlucky side from a pitching and defensive perspective.
Their .327 offensive babip is pretty average for the conference.
Sidenote:
Vanderbilts offensive babip is .362 for 3rd best in conference.
Their defensive babip is .286 for 2nd best in conference.
In other words, regression is heading their way
Per d1 stats
From a pitching standpoint:
Lsu has a defensive/pitching babip of .332, 3rd worst in the conference. Their 3.04 siera is 3rd best in conference, so they have definitely been on the unlucky side from a pitching and defensive perspective.
Their .327 offensive babip is pretty average for the conference.
Sidenote:
Vanderbilts offensive babip is .362 for 3rd best in conference.
Their defensive babip is .286 for 2nd best in conference.
In other words, regression is heading their way
This post was edited on 4/3/24 at 5:34 am
Posted on 4/3/24 at 5:58 am to LeGOAT
Nice post
Posted on 4/3/24 at 6:07 am to LeGOAT
It doesn’t help much if we strike out 12+ times a game.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 6:10 am to LeGOAT
quote:
Only other plausible explanation is Wanaka is sabotaging us from the inside, putting our guys out of position defensively.
Most likely. LSU’s defensive positioning has been a glaring weakness since Day 1 under Jay Johnson.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 6:11 am to LeGOAT
How do the defensive shifts play into this?
Posted on 4/3/24 at 7:08 am to LeGOAT
quote:
For those not familiar, BABIP indicates how lucky/unlucky you are with regard to where you are hitting the ball.
Kinda. If you hit weak popups every time the ball is in play, that's still poor batting.
quote:
Only caveat: I’m not accounting for exit velocity. It’s possible we have a way lower avg exit velocity than our SEC opponents, which could contribute to the lower BABIP.
Yeah that's what I was talking about.
Also, are you using every AB that isn't a strikeout or does it only count ball hit in fair territory? In other words, does it looking at HITS/(AB-SO) or does it look at HITS/(AB-SO-FOUL-OUTS)?
That is an interesting stat, though.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 7:17 am to LeGOAT
Not all balls are hit equally. This isn’t all about luck. A hard hit ball in the gap is not luck compared to a pop fly in the gap that the OF can get under. In other words, a low BABIP can very well indicate a team that is not hitting the ball well.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 7:17 am to LeGOAT
Nice list
Posted on 4/3/24 at 7:31 am to LeGOAT
I just see that we hit a lot more pop flies than our opponents. Loud outs don't get you much.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 7:34 am to LeGOAT
quote:
SU SEC Conf BABIP: .280
SEC Opponents BABIP: .354
Thats tough
Posted on 4/3/24 at 9:39 am to LeGOAT
The problem with these kind of stats though are they are so subjective on their own. Would be interesting to see the average exit velo or percentage of hard hit balls playing into that number. Just seems like a lot of the times in SEC play there aren't a lot of 'loud' outs in my opinion. But I would agree that it seems like other teams have been catching breaks against us, like all of the doubles down the line, etc.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 10:59 am to LeGOAT
quote:
One could argue our hitters have been unlucky in SEC play, with our opponents being pretty damn lucky at the same time.
Not necessarily. That could also mean the batters are chasing the pitchers pitch the gets them to hit ground ball outs and pop ups.
Whitey Herzog built his team around this philosophy in STL. He put a gold glove defense behind rag arm pithers like John Tudor that would throw 80 mph slurves at the bottom of the strike zone all night. He would often go 7-8 inngs and have 14-20 ground ball putouts and popups.
This post was edited on 4/3/24 at 11:01 am
Posted on 4/3/24 at 3:13 pm to LeGOAT
BABIP is dumb. You can make up a stat for anything. Take your calculator and stick it up your butt nerd.
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