Started By
Message

Hurricane Season '24 - Buckle Up - Euro Seasonal 200+ ACE

Posted on 4/4/24 at 5:52 pm
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20302 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 5:52 pm




quote:

We anticipate that the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be extremely active.
Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall,
leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the
eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to
remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season. A warmer-than-normal
tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment
for hurricane formation and intensification. This forecast is of above-normal confidence
for an early April outlook.



LINK

ETA: Euro Seasonal coming in Hot

This post was edited on 4/6/24 at 10:18 am
Posted by LSUFANMICK
Colorado Springs
Member since Sep 2009
1235 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 5:53 pm to
Sure
Posted by 0x15E
Outer Space
Member since Sep 2020
13473 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 5:54 pm to
Isn’t their accuracy rate in the mid-20s or something?
Posted by LNCHBOX
70448
Member since Jun 2009
85393 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 5:54 pm to
Same bullshite claim is made every April. Clickbait
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
171251 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 5:54 pm to
quote:

This forecast is of above-normal confidence
for an early April outlook.



Oh the same thing they say every year


FYI, last year was supposed to be worse than 2020. It wasn't
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
59475 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 5:55 pm to
I was wondering who would post it.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
59475 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 5:55 pm to
quote:

Oh the same thing they say every year

Didn't take long.
Posted by jbird7
Central FL
Member since Jul 2020
5606 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 5:56 pm to
These people can barely predict the tracks of these storms when they form, let alone predict how many there will be 3 months out.
Posted by Y.A. Tittle
Member since Sep 2003
104887 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 5:58 pm to
I'd put as much stock into Peej's forecast for the season.
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
27354 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 6:00 pm to
I watched a video a think by "Just Weather" a couple of weeks ago that showed historically there is a significant level of Gulf activity in the years following El Nino years.


Found it:

YT
Posted by Hammond Tiger Fan
Hammond
Member since Oct 2007
16274 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 6:00 pm to
If I ever lose my house due to a hurricane or some other catastrophe, that will be my excuse to get the hell out of Louisiana. I'm never rebuilding in this shithole.
Posted by Bama and Beer
Baldwin Co, AL
Member since Oct 2010
81611 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 6:03 pm to
They say this shite every year
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20302 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 6:03 pm to
quote:

Isn’t their accuracy rate in the mid-20s or something?


CSU is usually pretty conservative and actually busted low in '16, '17, & '18. Their initial forecast last season was for below normal.

quote:

We anticipate that the 2023 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly belowaverage activity
Posted by RougeDawg
Member since Jul 2016
6324 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 6:05 pm to
When was the last year they predicted an average year?
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
2676 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 6:06 pm to
The pattern setup for the summer is conducive for a more than active season. They are just basing their predictions off of that.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
59475 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 6:08 pm to
quote:

FYI, last year was supposed to be worse than 2020. It wasn't

FYI, last year their April forecast was low for named storms. They were over for hurricanes by just 2, and they were over for major hurricanes by 1.

ETA: I was wrong. I mistakenly looked at their August updated forecast. Their April forecast was below average across the board. Their August update is what I quoted, and it was pretty damn accurate.
This post was edited on 4/4/24 at 9:05 pm
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
59475 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 6:10 pm to
quote:

When was the last year they predicted an average year?

2023

They forecast it to be below average.
This post was edited on 4/4/24 at 6:35 pm
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
123130 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 6:12 pm to
Most active season in the history of the planet!
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
59475 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 6:14 pm to
quote:

CSU is usually pretty conservative and actually busted low in '16, '17, & '18. Their initial forecast last season was for below normal.

Is there anywhere that has an archive of their initial April forecasts?
This post was edited on 4/4/24 at 6:14 pm
Posted by Bigfishchoupique
Member since Jul 2017
8884 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 6:14 pm to
quote:


I was wondering who would post it.



Only one of our OT qualified weathermen. rds dc
first pageprev pagePage 1 of 5Next pagelast page

Back to top
logoFollow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram to get the latest updates on LSU Football and Recruiting.

FacebookTwitterInstagram