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Message
Hurricane Season '24 - Buckle Up - Euro Seasonal 200+ ACE
Posted on 4/4/24 at 5:52 pm
Posted on 4/4/24 at 5:52 pm
quote:
We anticipate that the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be extremely active.
Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall,
leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the
eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to
remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season. A warmer-than-normal
tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment
for hurricane formation and intensification. This forecast is of above-normal confidence
for an early April outlook.
LINK
ETA: Euro Seasonal coming in Hot
This post was edited on 4/6/24 at 10:18 am
35
Posted on 4/4/24 at 5:53 pm to rds dc
Sure
Posted on 4/4/24 at 5:54 pm to rds dc
Isn’t their accuracy rate in the mid-20s or something?
Posted on 4/4/24 at 5:54 pm to rds dc
Same bullshite claim is made every April. Clickbait
Posted on 4/4/24 at 5:54 pm to rds dc
quote:
This forecast is of above-normal confidence
for an early April outlook.
Oh the same thing they say every year
FYI, last year was supposed to be worse than 2020. It wasn't
Posted on 4/4/24 at 5:55 pm to rds dc
I was wondering who would post it.
Posted on 4/4/24 at 5:55 pm to stout
quote:
Oh the same thing they say every year
Didn't take long.
Posted on 4/4/24 at 5:56 pm to rds dc
These people can barely predict the tracks of these storms when they form, let alone predict how many there will be 3 months out.
Posted on 4/4/24 at 5:58 pm to rds dc
I'd put as much stock into Peej's forecast for the season.
Posted on 4/4/24 at 6:00 pm to rds dc
If I ever lose my house due to a hurricane or some other catastrophe, that will be my excuse to get the hell out of Louisiana. I'm never rebuilding in this shithole.
Posted on 4/4/24 at 6:03 pm to rds dc
They say this shite every year
Posted on 4/4/24 at 6:03 pm to 0x15E
quote:
Isn’t their accuracy rate in the mid-20s or something?
CSU is usually pretty conservative and actually busted low in '16, '17, & '18. Their initial forecast last season was for below normal.
quote:
We anticipate that the 2023 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly belowaverage activity
Posted on 4/4/24 at 6:05 pm to rds dc
When was the last year they predicted an average year?
Posted on 4/4/24 at 6:06 pm to Bama and Beer
The pattern setup for the summer is conducive for a more than active season. They are just basing their predictions off of that.
Posted on 4/4/24 at 6:08 pm to stout
quote:
FYI, last year was supposed to be worse than 2020. It wasn't
FYI, last year their April forecast was low for named storms. They were over for hurricanes by just 2, and they were over for major hurricanes by 1.
ETA: I was wrong. I mistakenly looked at their August updated forecast. Their April forecast was below average across the board. Their August update is what I quoted, and it was pretty damn accurate.
This post was edited on 4/4/24 at 9:05 pm
Posted on 4/4/24 at 6:10 pm to RougeDawg
quote:
When was the last year they predicted an average year?
2023
They forecast it to be below average.
This post was edited on 4/4/24 at 6:35 pm
Posted on 4/4/24 at 6:12 pm to LegendInMyMind
Most active season in the history of the planet!
Posted on 4/4/24 at 6:14 pm to rds dc
quote:
CSU is usually pretty conservative and actually busted low in '16, '17, & '18. Their initial forecast last season was for below normal.
Is there anywhere that has an archive of their initial April forecasts?
This post was edited on 4/4/24 at 6:14 pm
Posted on 4/4/24 at 6:14 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
I was wondering who would post it.
Only one of our OT qualified weathermen. rds dc
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