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re: Playoff Probability & Scenarios, Tie Breaker Rules, & Schedules

Posted on 12/27/10 at 4:26 pm to
Posted by BayouBengals03
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
99999 posts
Posted on 12/27/10 at 4:26 pm to
Saints need the Bears to get the 2 seed in the NFC. I think we can beat them on the road easier than we could beat Philly on the road.

And I also think Green Bay could potentially beat both Philly and Atlanta on the road, giving the Saints a home game in the NFC Championship.

Yay!
Posted by JETigER
LSU 2011 National Champions
Member since Dec 2003
7081 posts
Posted on 12/27/10 at 4:43 pm to
{paul allen}this is detroit man{\paul allen}

did you see where the Lions Vikings game is a zero meaning game. None of the other teams even needs that game to sort out the strength of victory tiebreaker.

Only one year after it took a miracle for the Vikings to lose to the Saints. Unbelievable.
Posted by gpttigers
Katy, TX
Member since May 2005
957 posts
Posted on 12/27/10 at 11:18 pm to
Can the Saints and the Falcons be the number 1 and 2 seeds and both get byes even though they are in the same division?

Update: Never mind. The two top "divisional" winner get byes. Hence, two teams from the same divisions can not get the one and two seed. Seems like if we win then we have a great shot at the 3 or 4 seed and a home playoff game.
This post was edited on 12/27/10 at 11:30 pm
Posted by Rohan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
1572 posts
Posted on 12/28/10 at 12:37 am to
If you don't win your division you are a wild card and cant be higher than a 5 seed.
Posted by blueslover
deeper than deep south
Member since Sep 2007
22792 posts
Posted on 12/28/10 at 12:04 pm to
just moving the links to this page

playoff probabilities

playoff scenario generator

they're going with a 4% chance of the Saints winning & birds losing to get the #1 seed. Much more improbable and stranger events have occurred in NFL history. I'd go 7%. Something for Fox to hang his hat on to go out. Some fluke injury or weird turnovers.
Posted by IlikeyouBetty
Bossier City, LA
Member since Nov 2010
1262 posts
Posted on 12/28/10 at 1:50 pm to
The Falcons/Panthers has a 267 importance while the Saints/Bucs is a 21. WTF? Shouldn't they be the same importance?
Posted by LSU Coyote
Member since Sep 2007
53390 posts
Posted on 12/28/10 at 2:26 pm to
quote:

can not get the one and two seed. Seems like if we win then we have a great shot at the 3 or 4 seed and a home playoff game.


No also wrong again, the top 4seeds are just for division champs. Best seed without having to win the division is 5.
Posted by BlacknGold
He Hate Me
Member since Mar 2009
12054 posts
Posted on 12/28/10 at 7:08 pm to
so if green bay wins they are in and have to then play chicago again. pretty rough
Posted by Pectus
Internet
Member since Apr 2010
67302 posts
Posted on 12/28/10 at 8:59 pm to
I'm going to laugh if Saints have the second best record in the nfc but are the five seed (pending a bears loss (gb win) and eagles loss to vikes tonight.
Posted by Dro
Barrett's Barleycorn
Member since Feb 2010
12619 posts
Posted on 12/28/10 at 10:32 pm to
quote:

I'm going to laugh if Saints have the second best record in the nfc but are the five seed (pending a bears loss (gb win) and eagles loss to vikes tonight.
Get ready to laugh...
Posted by tigerfan76
Shreveport, LA
Member since Jan 2008
338 posts
Posted on 12/28/10 at 11:19 pm to
How did Eagles loss impact us? Assuming Atlanta gets it done, it doesn't look like it will change the Saints seed or first round opponent, but maybe who we play in round 2, correct?
Posted by tad1015
Lafayette, LA
Member since Oct 2008
118 posts
Posted on 12/29/10 at 11:06 am to
quote:

I'm going to laugh if Saints have the second best record in the nfc but are the five seed


In my opinion this is the most ridiculous rule in all of sports. Even if Chicago finishes with a worse record than the Saints, they still get the 2 seed (and a first round bye) because they won their division. Not to mention, a team with a losing record like Seattle or St. Louis gets a higher seed than the Saints and home field advantage because they won the most god-awful division in all of professional sports. It makes absolutely no sense to me at all.
Posted by blueslover
deeper than deep south
Member since Sep 2007
22792 posts
Posted on 12/29/10 at 11:52 am to
I don't have a problem with it myself. It works both ways. In 2000 the division winning Saints hosted a game while the better record iggles wildcard team had to hit the road. I'm just wondering how many would be ranting the same if the roles were reversed this year?... "It's just not right us having to host a home game just because we won our division!"
Posted by tad1015
Lafayette, LA
Member since Oct 2008
118 posts
Posted on 12/29/10 at 12:47 pm to
I'm not delusional enough to think that I would have the same complaint if it worked out in the Saints favor this year, but I think from an unbiased standpoint it just makes no sense. They should just take the 4 division winners and the 2 playoff teams and seed the 6 teams based on their record only.
Posted by Eternalmajin
Member since Jun 2008
13113 posts
Posted on 12/29/10 at 5:22 pm to
I really think the biggest issue is that a team might be 7-9 and hosting. Any issues with 8-8 come from the team looking like they suck arse and are only 8-8 cause the rest of their division is crap. If they add some special rule in, I'd be fine with it being specific to 7-9 teams.
Posted by Simplemaaan
Member since Sep 2007
3841 posts
Posted on 12/30/10 at 3:15 am to
Well, on the bright side, NFL doesn't use the BCS calculations to determine seeds. But in all honesty, the top six records should go, throw out the divisions and play round robin.
Posted by gar90
Member since Sep 2009
6065 posts
Posted on 1/2/11 at 10:19 am to
They should do what the NBA does. Keep the seeding as it is now, but in the event a wild card team has a better record then the team they are matched up against, they should get home field for that game.
Posted by xyz
Member since Dec 2010
355 posts
Posted on 1/2/11 at 12:28 pm to
Keep the divisions but rank the teams by conference.
This post was edited on 1/2/11 at 12:32 pm
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