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re: Bayesian Statistics and the Conversion Attempt
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:39 pm to MidCityTiger
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:39 pm to MidCityTiger
Bayesian statistics also say you should go for it on 4th down in just about every situation. Statistics are great until you factor in the risk aversion associated with getting fired from your $10M job because you chose to be the outlier in your industry.
This post was edited on 9/9/22 at 12:42 pm
0
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:40 pm to Friar Tuck
quote:
It should have never come down to this question, if we had taken care of business the first three quarters of the game.
Thanks Captain Obvious.
Please make a list of things we are allowed to discuss.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:52 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
Right call by Coach but I would have personally gone for 2 pts. simply to show our team that I had confidence in them in rough situations. Anyway, the team will hopefully learn an important lesson in humility and mature. The coaches will learn a lot about the he@rt of the team and the want to be champions again. We have got the get better fast SEC begins very soon. Also, we need to get Nuss some playing in case Jayden goes down. Jayden running so much is not a good thing and increases his possibility of injury.
Geaux fighting tigers
Geaux fighting tigers
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:52 pm to 0x15E
quote:
2-pt conversion would’ve been the right call, but I don’t fault BK for the extra point.
With the way, the O-line played the possibility of Daniels getting sacked or the playing falling apart was pretty high. I think Daniels got sacked twice on that drive and had three scrambles.
This post was edited on 9/9/22 at 12:53 pm
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:57 pm to Willie Stroker
quote:
Why would you think that?
Because we shoved it down their dickhole on offense in the fourth. They were on skates. I think either call was appropriate.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 1:03 pm to Gings5
quote:
We probably get the 2pt conversion and also probably beat them in OT. We had all the momentum.
Yet they blocked our extra point.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 1:08 pm to MidCityTiger
Geez. That is why I don’t think relying on analytics heavily is great. It’s an intuitive game, meaning that the more you break trends, the more your competition has to recalibrate and adjust. If both teams are relying on them, a deduction can be made on what each other will call in critical situations. So back to being intuitive….why even bother.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 1:09 pm to MidCityTiger
I'm not seeing the Bayesianism in the OP.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 1:25 pm to Friar Tuck
Our defense made two critical stops in short field situations following the muffs. Had to field good about stopping them on defense in OT and being able to get 6.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 1:28 pm to 0x15E
quote:
2-pt conversion would’ve been the right call, but I don’t fault BK for the extra point.
I was hoping they would come out and line up for 2, but there is no right or wrong call. Coach is responsible to put his players in the best position to win, and BK's read was to play for the tie and win in OT.
I would have gone for 2, but I am sitting here eating a cheeseburger and surfing the net. BK is preparing the team for a game tomorrow.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 1:34 pm to MidCityTiger
quote:
BK may have been correct regarding kicking for the PAT and playing for overtime, but maybe not.
I stopped reading after this line....
Posted on 9/9/22 at 1:36 pm to Penrod
quote:completely disagree. We had just ripped their hearts out with the goal line fumble recovery and 99 yards drive. We had ALL the momentum and they were demoralized.
Nope. Our chances of winning were best if we kicked the PAT and won in OT.
I would've gone for 2 and ended it right there.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 1:40 pm to Penrod
quote:
Our chances of winning were best if we kicked the PAT and won in OT
Not the way the special teams played all night long. I had no confidence in the XP.
We had them on their heels. Some things require more than a quick look at analytics. When you're hot, you finish them off.
BK did the right thing on paper, but sometimes thats not the right thing in real life.
This post was edited on 9/9/22 at 1:41 pm
Posted on 9/9/22 at 1:41 pm to Alt26
This 100%
Posted on 9/9/22 at 1:42 pm to atltiger6487
quote:
We had just ripped their hearts out with the goal line fumble recovery and 99 yards drive. We had ALL the momentum
Facts. Put the dagger in their heart.
I can see BK isn't going to be a risk taker, get used to safe calls.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 2:20 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
quote:
I think most people would agree it was the right call.
Rational people would. But rational people also understand that Kelly made the objectively proper decision in kicking.
The irrational people on here who are saying he for sure should have gone for two would be the same people criticizing Kelly for taking the riskier approach.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 2:26 pm to ROPO
quote:
made the objectively proper decision in kicking.
If previous performance and current momentum are not to count, correct.
If you toss out all the intangibles, you are correct.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 2:30 pm to MidCityTiger
I felt like we should have gone for 2 with Daniels running it in
FSU hadn’t stopped him all day
FSU hadn’t stopped him all day
Posted on 9/9/22 at 2:30 pm to MidCityTiger
Maybe CBK was thinking he had the better team at that point in the game and getting to OT favored LSU.
Shows confidence in players after a game where most things didn't go your way
.
Shows confidence in players after a game where most things didn't go your way
.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 2:34 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
Why go for 2 on the first touchdown? If you don't make it you are down 8 and then to tie it you MUST make a 2 point conversion just to tie
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