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re: No matter how LSU baseball finishes, they will be 1-5 in series vs ranked opponents
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:05 pm to ell_13
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:05 pm to ell_13
Here are some stats on SEC teams getting a regional bid since 1999 (when they went to the current postseason format):
12 SEC wins = 2 out of 13 eligible teams (15.4%)
13 SEC wins = 10 out of 25 eligible teams (40.0%)
14 SEC wins = 15 out of 23 eligible teams (65.2%)
15 SEC wins = 19 out of 25 eligible teams (76.2%)
*must be at least .500 overall to be eligible for regional play.
-2009 Vanderbilt went 12-17 in SEC play, 34-25 overall, went to SEC Tournament Championship as 8 seed, RPI of 34 on selection day.
-2006 Miss State went 12-17 in SEC play, 35-21 overall, missed SECT, RPI of 34 on selection day.
12 SEC wins = 2 out of 13 eligible teams (15.4%)
13 SEC wins = 10 out of 25 eligible teams (40.0%)
14 SEC wins = 15 out of 23 eligible teams (65.2%)
15 SEC wins = 19 out of 25 eligible teams (76.2%)
*must be at least .500 overall to be eligible for regional play.
-2009 Vanderbilt went 12-17 in SEC play, 34-25 overall, went to SEC Tournament Championship as 8 seed, RPI of 34 on selection day.
-2006 Miss State went 12-17 in SEC play, 35-21 overall, missed SECT, RPI of 34 on selection day.
This post was edited on 5/5/21 at 2:14 pm
2
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:06 pm to ell_13
What source are you using for rankings?
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:08 pm to MOT
The TD.com poll
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:10 pm to ell_13
Due to COVID some teams will get benefit of doubt with a smaller sample size
I still think an under 500 lsu team in sec play would need a win or two in Hoover to feel safe
I still think an under 500 lsu team in sec play would need a win or two in Hoover to feel safe
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:14 pm to ell_13
Lets bet lunch at walkons
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:14 pm to josh336
You got it
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:15 pm to AstroTiger
How many wins vs top 25?
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:15 pm to AstroTiger
quote:do you have the sec tourney performances of these teams and/or their rpis? I know im asking for too much. Im guessing the rpis of the 35% of teams that went 14-16 werent very high
12 SEC wins = 2 out of 13 eligible teams (15.4%)
13 SEC wins = 10 out of 25 eligible teams (40.0%)
14 SEC wins = 15 out of 23 eligible teams (65.2%)
15 SEC wins = 19 out of 25 eligible teams (76.2%)
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:16 pm to ell_13
I think it’s very unrealistic to think if LSU goes 14-16 in conference that we miss regionals. That’s not going to happen with our RPI and SOS. They may go down over the next few weeks, but it won’t be much.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:16 pm to bubbz
Cant imagine our rpi drops too much if we win 7 games
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:18 pm to ell_13
quote:
I'll take this bet. I don't think 14-16 and only winning vs unranked teams is going to convince the committee
Name your price
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:18 pm to josh336
We win 7 of next 9 SEC games, it won’t drop out of the top 25 and SOS will likely remain top 10, which will further solidify our spot.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:18 pm to lsufball19
All of your Todd Walker memorabilia
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:19 pm to ell_13
quote:
All of your Todd Walker memorabilia
What do I get?
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:20 pm to lsufball19
All of my Todd Walker memorabilia.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:20 pm to ell_13
frick I want in on this bet too 
All these bets going to happen and LSU is going to go 8-1 or 9-0 - wishful thinking
All these bets going to happen and LSU is going to go 8-1 or 9-0
- wishful thinking Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:24 pm to josh336
I added it for the 12 win teams
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:30 pm to AstroTiger
I know, i was curious about the 14 teams. If you had that data easily available. If not, no biggie
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:32 pm to AstroTiger
Do stats for me, clown!
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:41 pm to ell_13
quote:
Are both likely to fall given our next 3 opponents.
Probably not, assuming for the sake of argument LSU performs well. Obviously this is multi-factored and impossible to predict with 100% accuracy, but right now Warren Nolan has LSU finishing with a #2 SOS and #22 RPI. And that PREDICTS LSU loses 2 of 3 to both Auburn and Alabama.
I think it is probably reasonable to believe that if LSU can will all three series their SOS likely will finish no worse than 4-5 and RPI somewhere between 20-25. The teams directly behind LSU in SOS don't exactly have brutal schedules either. Miss. St. is 3rd in SOS and (currently) the average RPI of their 3 remaining SEC opponents is 57. LSU's is 55, plus LSU will play a good La. Tech team once more.
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