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Posted on 3/31/20 at 11:05 pm to FairhopeTider
quote:it also assumes no treatments will be found and is based on skewed numbers because that’s all they have
keep in mind that number is what could occur with these massive social distancing measures.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 11:06 pm to Volvagia
Two words: herd immunity.
We were never going to reach 1-2MM fatalities, regardless.
I do agree with some of the social distancing measures, but mostly for the sick and elderly.
We were never going to reach 1-2MM fatalities, regardless.
I do agree with some of the social distancing measures, but mostly for the sick and elderly.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 11:08 pm to ThePoo
quote:
He essentially said that because it is a possibility we should be prepared for it but he hedged that hard and made it pretty clear on that hedging that he doesn’t think that number is coming
Yep.... prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 11:11 pm to Volvagia
quote:
Jesus fricking Christ. This is where the “muh flu” people are at now. BTW, that would be triple the average flu season, and that would be in spite of containment measures never used in living memory. Btw, that projection assumes a quarter of people get infected with coronavirus who typically get infected with flu in a given year.
This post was edited on 3/31/20 at 11:13 pm
Posted on 3/31/20 at 11:13 pm to IronmanHTX
Such horse shite.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 11:15 pm to Dr Rosenrosen
quote:
Two words: herd immunity.
Four words: talking points and feelings
Basic math:
It is widely agreed the base replication value for this virus is between 2-3.
In order to get that value under 1 and therefore no longer in a growing sustainable infection chain, that means you need 50-66% of the population to be infected.
Even assuming the mildest of mortality estimates of a fraction of a percent, when applied to a number THAT big(>160 million), it works out to over 800k dead. Also, so do this within the next 18 months will require a level of epidemiological penetration that has no precedent.
No. Herd immunity will not be the calvary rushing up the hill. The only thing on the horizon for that is streamlining the HCQ + A drug combo.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 11:21 pm to Volvagia
You're extrapolating from here to kingdom come. If you do that, we all get this thing.
But it doesn't work that way, especially with young (under 60) healthy people.
I do agree with large gatherings being cancelled. That combined with social distancing the sick/elderly would have been very effective.
But it doesn't work that way, especially with young (under 60) healthy people.
I do agree with large gatherings being cancelled. That combined with social distancing the sick/elderly would have been very effective.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 11:23 pm to FlexDawg
Actually that number has already been cut back to ~60k from that prelim estimate, and is still being worked on.
But that doesn’t contradict what I said. I didn’t define flu by the worst case of it in the past 40-50 years. I gave numbers of the average year.
Which is a fraction of the value you are trying to act like flu is always at.
Oh, and in case you were wondering...the year that broke the streak of seasonal flus? It was the last major flu pandemic.
LINK
But that doesn’t contradict what I said. I didn’t define flu by the worst case of it in the past 40-50 years. I gave numbers of the average year.
Which is a fraction of the value you are trying to act like flu is always at.
Oh, and in case you were wondering...the year that broke the streak of seasonal flus? It was the last major flu pandemic.
LINK
Posted on 3/31/20 at 11:27 pm to Dr Rosenrosen
quote:
You're extrapolating from here to kingdom come. If you do that, we all get this thing.
No I’m not. I’m just following through on what you said would happen. Don’t blame me for you not understanding the implications of what you said.
You don’t get herd immunity unless significant fractions of the population is immune, which at this time requires infection. That’s not extrapolation. That’s common sense. What, you thought herd immunity was a factor when less than even a quarter of the population has been exposed? Only maybe if the bug has a base replication value of near 1....which we know is not the case here.
I do not think that many will become infected, and by extension I do not think that many will die.
I was illustrating why you are wrong to think that “herd immunity” is a saving grace here and now. (Or even the near future.)
This post was edited on 3/31/20 at 11:30 pm
Posted on 3/31/20 at 11:32 pm to IronmanHTX
I don’t believe they think this is what will happen.
Give a way high number so that:
A) people are nervous enough they continue social distancing to insure it doesn’t get out of control.
B) justify the $2TT + we just spent
C) justify the drop in stock market
D) look like you saved the day when it’s only 15-25% of that.
There is no game theory situation where low balling deaths makes any strategic sense whatsoever.
Give a way high number so that:
A) people are nervous enough they continue social distancing to insure it doesn’t get out of control.
B) justify the $2TT + we just spent
C) justify the drop in stock market
D) look like you saved the day when it’s only 15-25% of that.
There is no game theory situation where low balling deaths makes any strategic sense whatsoever.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 11:33 pm to Volvagia
You can have regional herd immunity, too. But that's beside the point.
The point here is that the original worst case estimate of 1-2MM fatalities was the worst case scenario if we do nothing. Now, we are getting a worst case of 100K. And I assure you it's not just because the government put everyone on house arrest.
The point here is that the original worst case estimate of 1-2MM fatalities was the worst case scenario if we do nothing. Now, we are getting a worst case of 100K. And I assure you it's not just because the government put everyone on house arrest.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 11:34 pm to Cosmo
quote:
So double the regular flu? Which we have a vaccine for? Sounds pretty good.
Imagine how much worse it would have been if we didn't do isolation measures.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 11:40 pm to Azkiger
They’ll have to start digging up dead bodies and planting Coronavirus on them to hit 100k.
Americans need to get their head out of their rears and see this for what it is. A power grab testing tool.
Americans need to get their head out of their rears and see this for what it is. A power grab testing tool.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 11:44 pm to Dr Rosenrosen
quote:
The point here is that the original worst case estimate of 1-2MM fatalities was the worst case scenario if we do nothing. Now, we are getting a worst case of 100K. And I assure you it's not just because the government put everyone on house arrest.
The point here is that you are interjecting your feelings to fill the gaps of you skimming headlines.
And you think it proves something when you manufacture inconsistencies.
No one claimed Fauci’s 100k figure was the new worst case. You just assumed that/made that up.
Hell, even the link provided states it a range between 100-240k, and it explicitly states it assumes we continue to do what we are doing now.
So even if you want to assume the qualifying conditions (which is stupid in of itself)you are incorrect
Ditto with the 1-2kk figure....it was the upper end of the estimation assuming we did nothing
The two different conditions mean the two statements aren’t mutually exclusive.
You can give whatever assurances you want but until you actually read the models you choose to base your discussion on, and not just skim sensationalist headlines of it, they aren’t worth jack shite.
This post was edited on 3/31/20 at 11:45 pm
Posted on 3/31/20 at 11:45 pm to beebefootballfan
quote:
They’ll have to start digging up dead bodies and planting Coronavirus on them to hit 100k.
I hope so, but seeing as we had 748 die today alone it doesn't seem outlandish.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 11:46 pm to Azkiger
quote:
Imagine how much worse it would have been if we didn't do isolation measures.
Imagine how much better it would be if we'd taken our licks and kept the country intact at a socio-economic level
Posted on 4/1/20 at 12:01 am to Presidio
quote:
Imagine how much better it would be if we'd taken our licks and kept the country intact at a socio-economic level
Depends on how many American's would die otherwise. No way our economy goes on unaffected if, say, a million American's died in a year from The wu flu. People would stop going out to eat, seeing movies, etc.
Lives and dollars were going to get lost no matter which path you chose.
This post was edited on 4/1/20 at 12:02 am
Posted on 4/1/20 at 12:25 am to Volvagia
quote:dead? you can't be serious
You remove all government social distancing mandates coast to coast and reopen everything tomorrow, 1-2 million comes back into play
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