re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Rybar update on Eastern Front

https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1578014219873787904

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??On the Kupyansk section of the front, the 2nd and 3rd battalions of the AFU 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade attempted to storm Tavilzhanka and Vilshana with artillery fire support. Russian troops repulsed the attack, and the AFU retreated.

Due to numerous failures in this area, the Ukrainian command has changed its tactics: AFU formations plan to capture Vilshana from the south (Synkivka) and from the north (Horobyivka). Air defenses in the area of Lyman-1 are providing cover from air strikes.
In the Petropavlivka sector, AFU strike groups of the 14th and 92nd brigades continue attempts to reach the Kyslivka-Orlianske line. On the evening of October 5, AFU tank units engaged the enemy in the area of Stepova Novoselivka.

During the clash, Ukrainian infantry suffered casualties and retreated to Petropavlivka. Despite the setback, the brigade leadership set a mission to take Kyslivka within the next 24 hours.

To do this, a sabotage and reconnaissance group of foreign mercenaries and members of AFU special forces units numbering up to 20 people is being formed in the area of Petropavlivka.

?? In the Kreminna area, AFU are finishing regrouping for an offensive on Kreminna and Svatove.

Up to 200 mobilized civilians have been redeployed to the vicinity of Torske. In the areas east of Makiivka and south of Ploschanka, Ukrainian recon groups are active, probing the Russian Armed Forces' defenses.

For the past two days, Ukrainian artillery has been attempting to establish fire control over the Kreminna-Svatove road. Targeting is provided by reconnaissance UAVs equipped with a projectile drop device.

Units of the AFU 25th Airborne Brigade form the backbone of AFU's offensive grouping. The control and coordination of operations in both the Svatove and Kreminna sectors is carried out from the command post in Lyman.

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Rybar is a bit behind. That Eastern front map is already outdated, as Ukraine has taken Hlushkivka (on the Oskil River). There are videos.

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Rybar is a bit behind. That Eastern front map is already outdated, as Ukraine has taken Hlushkivka (on the Oskil River). There are videos.

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It sounds to me as if Russian resistance has stiffened on all fronts, or that Ukraine has paused a bit to reorganize after their bug successes of last week.

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Ukraine has paused a bit to reorganize after their bug successes of last week

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Ukrainian logistics is far, far better than Russian logistics, but it's not NATO logistics. There are problems with mud and bad roads, and don't forget that Ukraine is operating a true menagerie of vehicles and weapons. Keeping up with the maintenance and ammo needs of so many different systems is a huge headache for the Ukrainian command.

In the East, I don't expect the big push towards Svatove for another couple of days. In the South, you'll likely see probing attacks, as Ukraine looks for the soft spots in the newly improvised Russian defense.

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I love the USA but there is going to have to come a time when we really sit down and think about what it would mean to actually go to war with the country that makes a massive percentage of all of our consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, finished products, etc. It would be very painful for China to not have access to the American consumer, but it would be catastrophic for us to be cut off from Chinese products. It's very simple. We DO NOT HAVE THE CAPACITY to produce the manufactured goods which we NEED TO SURVIVE. We need China more than they need us. That is why China will take Taiwan whenever they decide to do it. Because we can't stop them no matter what we tell ourselves.

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This will be my only comment since it is only tangentially related(though it does speak to the need to diversify supply chains at home and abroad because of this sort of instability from authoritarian regimes)

The irony here is that the same people that whine most about China(left and right) are the same that shat and poisoned the well of trade agreements that would have helped transition away from Chinese economic reliance such as the TPP. Which sought to formalize relationships and create favorable supply chains with other asian and South American countries that could serve as low cost manufacturing partners that aren't China, and adjust barriers with economic partners like Canada and Australia on current exports America struggles to sell to other developed nations. Both Trump and Clinton torpedoed it with no viable alternatives created and so we remain as economically interlocked with China as ever. With only piecemeal legislation to try and bolster domestic supply chains and the framework of attempts to create unilateral trade agreements that were neither sufficient or sufficiently effective substitutes.

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EXCLUSIVE @BILD : We spoke to local dentist Sergey in the village about this horror-photo: „The teeth look like the ones from my cabinet, my house was looted by russians. They come from people that I treated all these years. I took these teeth out.“

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I notice the good doc is silent about where the dildo came from.

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EXCLUSIVE @BILD : We spoke to local dentist Sergey in the village about this horror-photo: „The teeth look like the ones from my cabinet, my house was looted by russians. They come from people that I treated all these years. I took these teeth out.“


I notice the good doc is silent about where the dildo came from.

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Is there a good reason for why he keeps all these teeth?

One of three things is about to happen.

1) UF starts an offensive in Zap region. RU will need to divert troops from west to stop run to metripol

2) UF is pulling a feint to pull troops from west to take finish the current offensive in west

3) UF waits to see if RU moves troops or not to zap from west and then decides if major attack west or at Zap

With RF having troop/eq shortages I wouldn’t be surprised if the start the offensive on one then start the second shortly after. A delayed “draw” play….

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Is there a good reason for why he keeps all these teeth?

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The old Seinfeld joke. The difference between a dentist and a sadist is the sadist has newer magazines.

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Timothy Snyder on how the war in Ukraine ends. TL;DR, the Russian factions all go home to fight it out over who controls the disentegration of Russia. LINK

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Thanks Jim. Excellent article on the situation Putin is dealing with now and what awaits the Russians in the near future -

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And so we can see a plausible scenario for how this war ends. War is a form of politics, and the Russian regime is altered by defeat. [...] In such a struggle, it makes no sense to have armed allies far away in Ukraine who might be more usefully deployed in Russia: not necessarily in an armed conflict, although this cannot be ruled out entirely, but to deter others and protect oneself. For all of the actors concerned, it might be bad to lose in Ukraine, but it is worse to lose in Russia. The logic of the situation favors he who realizes this most quickly, and is able to control and redeploy. Once the cascade begins, it quickly makes no sense for anyone to have any Russian forces in Ukraine at all.

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If you're thinking this looks like a mafia war, Snyder links this update as confirmation. Here are some highlights but the article goes into more explanation -

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Putin is visibly failing at balancing the competing demands of the Russian nationalists who have become increasingly combative since mobilization began despite sharing Putin’s general war aims and goals in Ukraine. ISW has identified three main factions in the current Russian nationalist information space: Russian milbloggers and war correspondents, former Russian or proxy officers and veterans, and some of the Russian siloviki—people with meaningful power bases and forces of their own. Putin needs to retain the support of all three of these factions.

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The Kadyrov-Prigozhin incident sparked a rift between the siloviki and the milbloggers, with the milbloggers defending [Central Military District (CMD), Alexander] Lapin.

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Fractures are emerging within the Russian milblogger community itself, moreover.

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The fragmentation of the Russian nationalist information space could have significant domestic impacts and could even affect the stability of Putin’s regime. Putin will be unable to meet the mutually exclusive demands of various groups. Kadyrov and Prigozhin are pushing for a change in the way Russia fights the war to one more suited to their unconventional modes of mobilizing personnel and fighting. The veterans have been pushing for a more traditional overhaul of the Russian higher military command and MoD and for putting Russia on a conventional war footing and the Russian MoD. Russian milbloggers are currently defending the Kremlin’s selection of uniformed commanders while continuing to attack the MoD and making a variety of extreme demands and recommendations of their own—all the while reporting on Russia’s frontline failings in detail even as the MoD tries to silence them. Putin cannot afford to lose the support of any of these groups, nor can satisfy them all as the war wears on and Russian troops continue to sustain losses.

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And finally, the tipping point -

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[What] Prigozhin and Kadyrov are calling for is an intensification of the war, and mocking the Russian high command in the most aggressive possible tone, but meanwhile they seem to be protecting their own men. That too seems like a trap. By criticizing the way the war is fought, they weaken Putin's informational control; by forcing him to take responsibility even as they will not do so, they expose his position further. They are telling him to win a war that they do not, themselves, seem to be trying to win. In the overall logic that I am describing, rivals would seek to conserve whatever fighting forces they have, either to protect their own personal interests during an unpredictable time, or to make a play for Moscow. If this is indeed the present situation, it will soon seem foolish for everyone involved to have armed forces located in distant Ukraine, or, for that matter, to get them killed there day after day. Then comes a tipping point. Once some people realize that other people are holding back their men, it will seem senseless to expend (or alienate) one's own.

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