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re: Lara Trump is not backing down. She is what the RNC has needed for quite some time.
Posted on 4/11/24 at 4:53 pm to GumboPot
Posted on 4/11/24 at 4:53 pm to GumboPot
quote:
Lara got the number of registered voters wrong here, but I'm not holding it against her. We still love her and she is doing a great job. Her intentions are pure
Not a cult
1
Posted on 4/11/24 at 4:54 pm to Flats
quote:
We still love her and she is doing a great job. Her intentions are pure.
I would say her intentions are unabashed, which is getting the Republican Nominee elected.
I'm not sure why any Republican would have the tiniest problem with that, though.
Posted on 4/11/24 at 4:59 pm to GumboPot
quote:
This info looks more accurate for 2020:
Those 168m numbers are pulled from the 2020 Census of people that responded to that question they were registered. What is missing is the 37.5m people that did not answer that question. How many of those 37.5m people are registered voters?
Posted on 4/11/24 at 5:06 pm to SoonerK
quote:
Those 168m numbers are pulled from the 2020 Census of people that responded to that question they were registered. What is missing is the 37.5m people that did not answer that question. How many of those 37.5m people are registered voters?
168m + 37.5 doesn’t get you to 209 million. That’s assuming every last one of the 37.5 non responders were registered to vote.
Posted on 4/11/24 at 5:10 pm to Sofaking2
quote:
Those 168m numbers are pulled from the 2020 Census of people that responded to that question they were registered. What is missing is the 37.5m people that did not answer that question. How many of those 37.5m people are registered voters?
168m + 37.5 doesn’t get you to 209 million. That’s assuming every last one of the 37.5 non responders were registered to vote.
No, that is in addition to why you should not use the Census as it is just responses and not verifiable. That is why I showed the data from each states numbers that adds up to 209m.
Posted on 4/11/24 at 5:20 pm to SoonerK
I would hope the EAVS does not use surveys to collect data like the Census does? Hopefully, they use hard data from the states and not surveys? 209m out of a possible 239m were registered to vote! That means 86% of all voting aged people were registered? That seems awfully high. That includes voters not cleaned off the voting rolls for whatever reason?
Posted on 4/11/24 at 5:32 pm to SoonerK
quote:That is not my understanding at all. The USCB estimates registered voters regularly, not just in census years.
Those 168m numbers are pulled from the 2020 Census of people that responded to that question
They employ a combination of methods data sources and statistical models including voter registration data and demographics, population projections and registration rates, surveys and sampling, etc. The fact folks didn't answer the question is little different from folks electing to not take part in a political poll.
Posted on 4/11/24 at 5:34 pm to Sofaking2
quote:
I would hope the EAVS does not use surveys to collect data like the Census does? Hopefully, they use hard data from the states and not surveys? 209m out of a possible 239m were registered to vote! That means 86% of all voting aged people were registered? That seems awfully high. That includes voters not cleaned off the voting rolls for whatever reason?
The state data will have some issues based on how well each states voter roles are maintained, but at least they are based on hard data and not surveys like the Census does. My guess is the actual numbers are around 195m-200m but nowhere near the 133m and 168m that have been thrown out.
Posted on 4/11/24 at 5:36 pm to SoonerK
quote:And you been shown that method significantly overestimates eligible registered voters. That fact you're still touting it is telling.
That is why I showed the data from each states numbers that adds up to 209m.
Posted on 4/11/24 at 5:38 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
That is not my understanding at all. The USCB estimates registered voters regularly, not just in census years.
They employ a combination of methods data sources and statistical models including voter registration data and demographics, population projections and registration rates, surveys and sampling, etc. The fact folks didn't answer the question is little different from folks electing to not take part in a political poll.
The 2020 Census data shows the 168m is clearly under the Reported registered line which also also has a column of No response to registration which includes 37.5m people. The 168m is obviously flawed because that would mean a turnout of 94% of the registered voters in 2020 election.
Posted on 4/11/24 at 5:39 pm to SoonerK
quote:No one gives a flip about your "guess." Especially after you stuck to methods double or triple counting nearly every voter who moved out of state in the past 5yrs.
My guess
Posted on 4/11/24 at 5:41 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
And you been shown that method significantly overestimates eligible registered voters. That fact you're still touting it is telling.
It could be overstating by 5% which can be expected as registrations are not a static data point.
Posted on 4/11/24 at 5:42 pm to jlnoles79
quote:
Lara got the number of registered voters wrong here, but I'm not holding it against her. We still love her and she is doing a great job. Her intentions are pure
Not a cult
She also said the RNC's only job was getting Trump elected.
I'm sure all the other GOP candidates for Senate/House/State level seats loved to hear that.
Posted on 4/11/24 at 5:42 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
No one gives a flip about your "guess." Especially after you stuck to methods double or triple counting nearly every voter who moved out of state in the past 5yrs.
Oh enlightened one, what is your number of registered voters in 2020?
Posted on 4/11/24 at 5:43 pm to SoonerK
quote:Not as obviously flawed as 81 million supposed votes* for a basement dwelling potatobrain.
The 168m is obviously flawed because that would mean a turnout of 94% of the registered voters in 2020 election.
Posted on 4/11/24 at 5:57 pm to SoonerK
I was wrong. It is not estimated at 86% of eligible voters being registered, but closer to 90%! Look at this breakdown of EAVS by MIT’s election lab.
Holy crap, 9 out of 10 people in the US are registered to vote! LOL, I better not hear another person in the media saying we need to register more people to vote. Damn near the entire country is already registered, haha.
MIT Election Lab
quote:
The Election Assistance Commission’s 2022 report on the implementation of the NVRA stated that there were over 203 million active registered voters in the 50 states plus the District of Columbia. With an estimated voting-eligible population of 226.4 million, this suggests that about 90% of eligible voters are registered and on the voting rolls.
Holy crap, 9 out of 10 people in the US are registered to vote! LOL, I better not hear another person in the media saying we need to register more people to vote. Damn near the entire country is already registered, haha.
MIT Election Lab
This post was edited on 4/11/24 at 6:01 pm
Posted on 4/11/24 at 7:20 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
I would say her intentions are unabashed, which is getting the Republican Nominee elected.
I thought she was running the RNC, not Trump's campaign. That would mean her intentions should be to get a lot of Republicans elected.
I suspect, especially given her little slip of the tongue, that this will go the way of Trump's bait & switch PAC. Time will tell.
Posted on 4/11/24 at 7:34 pm to BuckyCheese
quote:
I'm sure all the other GOP candidates for Senate/House/State level seats loved to hear that.
She knows they will because she knows the Trump voters will want Trump to have a GOP House and Senate which is completely different from the Biden voters of 2020. Biden lost 14 seats for the Democrats in 2020 and even more in 2022.
She knows!!
Posted on 4/11/24 at 7:35 pm to Timeoday
81 million votes is NOT the same as 81 million voters.
Posted on 4/11/24 at 7:37 pm to Flats
quote:
I thought she was running the RNC, not Trump's campaign. That would mean her intentions should be to get a lot of Republicans elected.
I suspect, especially given her little slip of the tongue, that this will go the way of Trump's bait & switch PAC. Time will tell.
Do you also suspect people voting for the Republican nominee will be voting for democrats down ballot?
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