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Message
re: Forecaster who hasn't missed a presidential prediction in 40 YEARS reveals prediction
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:43 am to TDsngumbo
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:43 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
And you’re wrong that Trump is not some “super liked” candidate. He IS super liked, as a candidate .
Unfortunately he's also "super hated" as a candidate.
People keep claiming he's massively popular because he has rabid support from his base, but that's a misuse of the word. He's polarizing, not popular.
1
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:46 am to Junky
quote:
But did he really?
I don’t know man, you tell me. I thought I was in touch with reality but maybe I’m not.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:49 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
I agree that Trump shouldn’t have been the nominee because he’s too tainted. I love him and will vote for him a third time but I do not believe he will win.
It will be close like 2016 and 2020 were and come down to the same handful of states. The days of 'landslide' elections are over - the country is too divided at this point. I can absolutely see Trump flipping Michigan but I see no way he wins in Arizona or Georgia and that is a problem for him.
quote:
there WILL be fraud in specific counties of the few major swing states
There is 'fraud' in every election. Ballot harvesting in the states where it is legal is however not 'fraud'. It is gamesmanship which Republicans can absolutely do as well but seem to not want to.
quote:
The media and left will claim there’s again no evidence of widespread fraud
Dominion is still stacking bodies on claims of fraud and they are undefeated in court so far I'm sure they are hoping there is claims of fraud again
quote:
He IS super liked, as a candidate
His approval ratings nationally are abysmal and just as bad as Biden's are and we have both seen how bad of a job Biden has done - hence this election is not a slam dunk because of one man - Donald Trump.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:51 am to Covingtontiger77
quote:
Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
quote:
Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.
quote:
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
quote:
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
quote:
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
quote:
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
quote:
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
quote:
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national he
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:51 am to Covingtontiger77
This False prophet is trying to blow smoke up everyone's arse .
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:52 am to Flats
quote:
Unfortunately he's also "super hated" as a candidate. People keep claiming he's massively popular because he has rabid support from his base, but that's a misuse of the word. He's polarizing, not popular.
He received over 74 million votes in 2020, up from 63 million votes in 2016 and his support has only grown since 2020. He’s going to receive 75 million or more votes this time. How can you claim he’s not massively popular?
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:54 am to SDVTiger
quote:
So which Republican would have beaten JB?
Why does is always have to be Dem/Rep? Why can’t an independent win? Everyone is always talking shite about hating the establishment, yet no one has the balls to back an independent candidate.
Voting for an independent would be the ultimate “frick you” move to all of those pieces of shite in Washington.
This post was edited on 5/1/24 at 8:56 am
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:56 am to ronricks
quote:
This election should be a slam dunk for Republicans but won't be because Trump.
Bull fricking shite! Donald Trump only exists as a political force because Repubs have a long track record of putting forth horrible candidates. The John McCain’s, the Mitt Romney’s, the Jeb’s, that fat bastard Chris Christy, Lindsey Gramnesty and the list goes on.. you can piss and moan about it all you want but apathetic voters and the sorry GOP created him.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:56 am to SDVTiger
quote:Lol. The one that gets your panties in a bunch.
So which Republican would have beaten JB?
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:59 am to ronricks
quote:
And when it comes down to the same 5 or 6 swing states as it did in 2016 and 2020 you will just scream 'fraud' 'cheating' 'rigged' etc.
When IDs aren't required and votes can come from whomever whenever, then it's not a secure election
If they want people to stop claiming rigged then they can tighten up the requirements on voting
Posted on 5/1/24 at 9:02 am to Covingtontiger77
So, if this guy is a bellwether, it really means POTUS Trump wins but only after shutting down the count while millions of votes behind.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 9:02 am to Covingtontiger77
His method doesn't account for cheating that happened in 2020.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 9:04 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
How can you claim he’s not massively popular?
Because "popular" has an actual meaning. Bernie Sanders has a lot of loyal supporters too; does that mean he's popular?
If 2/3rds of the country loved Trump and 1/3 hated him, "popular" would be accurate, especially in a political context. If half the country hates/doesn't want him, "popular" isn't the word you're looking for.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 9:05 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
He’s going to receive 75 million or more votes this time. How can you claim he’s not massively popular?
He's not going to get close to that without mail in voting. Almost 26% of his 74 million were from mail in votes in 2020.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 9:07 am to ronricks
No one thinks he is a flawless candidate, if we only had four years of his presidency to judge then your argument might make sense. Idiots like you pretend Covid wasn’t thrust upon him and stupidly argue he is no different than Biden to justify staying home or voting third party. It’s not his fault the election will be close. It’s the millions of idiots like yourself that will stay home or vote for Biden that are to blame not Donald Trump.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 9:11 am to Rip Torner
quote:
vote for Biden
I have not and will not vote for Biden. You people are insane. Not thinking Trump is perfect like his TDS cult does in no way shape or form means someone is voting for Biden or is a 'lib' 'dem' 'soy' or any other word you can come up with. Trump is obese he is damn near 80 and is cognitively declining. This isn't even taking into account his horrid appointments like Milley, Wray, Sessions, Bolton, etc or his horrid job of handling Covid.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 9:11 am to ronricks
quote:
Nominating Trump made this an option. This election should be a slam dunk for Republicans but won't be because Trump.
He shouldn’t be the nominee. I know people here don’t want to hear this but it is obvious.
He has small leads in swing states, for now, against a freakin’ barely-walking ancient mannequin . . . in a horrible economy, with massive inflation, and civil unrest. That’s it.
There are dozens of others more qualified and with far less baggage. DeSantis (and a few others) would have a 10 point lead by now. Easily.
This post was edited on 5/1/24 at 9:13 am
Posted on 5/1/24 at 9:12 am to SDVTiger
NONE - massive corruption and cheating.
People need to WTF that we are in the prequel to the Hunger Games and this country is not going back to where it was.
People need to WTF that we are in the prequel to the Hunger Games and this country is not going back to where it was.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 9:13 am to L1C4
quote:
Lol. The one that gets your panties in a bunch.
Which is?
quote:
Why does is always have to be Dem/Rep? Why can’t an independent win?
It can be. Do you have a name to provide?
This post was edited on 5/1/24 at 9:16 am
Posted on 5/1/24 at 9:14 am to ronricks
quote:
Under normal circumstances this would be true but Trump is the one that makes this not a slam dunk. There are people out there who dislike Trump so much they don't care if gasoline or milk is $10 a gallon they simply are not going to vote for Trump. Trump changes everything and his TDS cult can't understand this because they have convinced themselves somehow that Trump actually has high approval ratings. Its the most bizarre thing ever.
Under normal circumstances, this would be true, but Biden is the one that makes this a slam dunk. A lot of people hate Trump, but everyone, including Trump haters, know that the Biden admin is far worse in every aspect possible. There just isn't a logical or valid enough reason to dislike Trump so much so, that anyone would vote for Biden for that reason alone. Once you add in performance, the gap between them grows abundantly larger. A good analogy would be that people hate bank A so much so, that they would rather put there money in bank B even though bank B yields a significant loss, comparably. This just isn't true and no one would do this.
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