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re: Do you believe in the Fermi Paradox: The Great Filter?

Posted on 11/20/18 at 5:29 pm to
Posted by MusclesofBrussels
Member since Dec 2015
4544 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 5:29 pm to
quote:

What's frightening is the Dark Forest theory:

-All life desires to stay alive.
-There is no way to know if other lifeforms can or will destroy you if given a chance.
-Lacking assurances, the safest option for any species is to annihilate other life forms before they have a chance to do the same.


Somebody has read the three body problem

Posted by airmonkee
Houma, La
Member since Mar 2009
188 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 5:33 pm to
It's not about matter....it's emergence energy of the mind.
Posted by PsychTiger
Member since Jul 2004
99349 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 5:33 pm to
quote:

It is crazy how small we are.



Speak for yourself.
Posted by AMS
Member since Apr 2016
6498 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 5:40 pm to
quote:

The Great Filter is scary. What's frightening is the Dark Forest theory:

-All life desires to stay alive.
-There is no way to know if other lifeforms can or will destroy you if given a chance.
-Lacking assurances, the safest option for any species is to annihilate other life forms before they have a chance to do the same.

Basically eliminate all life you discover before it can eliminate you. And we've been broadcasting our location for decades.




Dark forest theory is already discredited. There are numerous examples of symbiosis in nature. In fact evolution trends to niche specialization and utilization of resources in ways that avoid competition.

I am unaware of any species that specialize or even generally use a tactic of annihilating other species as self defense. This seems extremely unlikely as this strategy seems to maximize potential conflict, which makes 0 sense from a logical or evolutionary standpoint.

This post was edited on 11/20/18 at 5:53 pm
Posted by foshizzle
Washington DC metro
Member since Mar 2008
40599 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 5:43 pm to
quote:

The fact that 2 cars can theoretically hit head-on but go right through each other without touching is mind blowing enough. But being theoretically possible to teleport could be a game changer in interstellar travel.


You misunderstand this.

It's true that subatomic particles do something like this, in fact it's becoming a major problem for transistor manufacturers. Particles will simply "tunnel" through a barrier.

But even that isn't quite stating accurately what is happening. A particle doesn't really have a position, it has a probability function that describes the likelihood of it's position if one measures it. That probability is slightly > 0 for certain subatomic particles in transistors.

But keep in mind that this is for a single tiny particle jumping a few nanometers across a barrier. For large objects (like cars) jumping meters past each other is another matter. That probability is so small that for the lifetimes of billions of universes it still isn't happening. It's greater than zero, but so incredibly tiny that we can confidently say it just won't happen.

And "teleporting" across interstellar distances is even less likely than that.

Source: Got my degree in Physics and Astronomy and spent far too much time doing homework calculating stuff like this. For subatomic particles yes this is a thing, anything larger and no it isn't.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61581 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 5:47 pm to
I think the Great Filter is economic. Conquering the universe would be expensive compared to exploring it in virtually by jacking in to The Matrix.
Posted by PCRammer
1725 Slough Avenue in Scranton, PA
Member since Jan 2014
1458 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 5:48 pm to
quote:

That probability is so small that for the lifetimes of billions of universes it still isn't happening. It's greater than zero

Posted by Buckeye Jeaux
Member since May 2018
17756 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 5:51 pm to

quote:

Except, our broadcast have hardly covered any space even in just our own galaxy

Wow. Thanks for posting that. Gotta be one of the most mind-blowing illustrations I've ever seen
This post was edited on 11/20/18 at 5:54 pm
Posted by tiggerthetooth
Big Momma's House
Member since Oct 2010
61359 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 5:53 pm to
quote:

And "teleporting" across interstellar distances is even less likely than that.


Not if it's moving through a wormhole.
Posted by lilmoonlsu
Member since Jan 2015
671 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 5:56 pm to
Not sure if there is other life in the universe or we are alone. Both are equally frightening.
Posted by DownshiftAndFloorIt
Here
Member since Jan 2011
66763 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 6:08 pm to
I chose to believe that at some point in the next 500 or so years there will be some type of great enlightenment that will cause an explosion of knowledge and discovery.
Posted by boxcarbarney
Above all things, be a man
Member since Jul 2007
22790 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 6:10 pm to
quote:

Somebody has read the three body problem


I did. But the theory is based off of the works of scientist David Brin:

quote:

It is consistent with all of the facts and philosophical principles described in the first part of this article. There is no need to struggle to suppress the elements of the Drake equation in order to explain the Great Silence, nor need we suggest that no ETIS anywhere would bear the cost of interstellar travel. It need only happen once for the results of this scenario to become the equilibrium condition in the Galaxy. We would not have detected extraterrestrial radio traffic- nor would any ETIS have ever settled on Earth- because all were killed shortly after discovering radio.


quote:

He then reminds us that broadcasts of I Love Lucy are racing across the cosmos, ready to reveal our location and sense of humor to anybody who can pick them up.




Posted by Ole War Skule
North Shore
Member since Sep 2003
3409 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 6:18 pm to
fermi paradox explanation for those who aren't familar, very cool

long read, but well worth it

prepare to

This post was edited on 11/20/18 at 6:25 pm
Posted by GeauxxxTigers23
TeamBunt General Manager
Member since Apr 2013
62514 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 6:24 pm to
The Fermi Paradox sounds like something a retard came up with the first time he smoked weed.
Posted by boxcarbarney
Above all things, be a man
Member since Jul 2007
22790 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 6:34 pm to
quote:

Dark forest theory is already discredited.


By whom?

quote:

There are numerous examples of symbiosis in nature. In fact evolution trends to niche specialization and utilization of resources in ways that avoid competition.


You are speaking of life forms that have evolved in the same environment, on the same planet, not species competing to stay alive across galaxies. Symbiotic relationships can't evolve over such vast differences.

quote:

I am unaware of any species that specialize or even generally use a tactic of annihilating other species as self defense. This seems extremely unlikely as this strategy seems to maximize potential conflict, which makes 0 sense from a logical or evolutionary standpoint.


You mean like the theory that homo sapiens wiped out Neanderthal? (And I know this theory is hotly contested, but the fact that it was accepted for so long kind of puts to bed the notion that "species don't annihilate other species")


And I don't necessarily buy into the Dark Forest theory - most likely, it is wrong - but I do find it fascinating from a thought experiment standpoint.
Posted by TutHillTiger
Mississippi Alabama
Member since Sep 2010
43700 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 6:35 pm to
No it’s complete bullshite based upon limited data and ridiculous assumptions.

We are are very young planet on the edge of the universal in a young solar system. There are billions maybe Trillions of planets that an support life as we know it, that are billions or years older than us.

The likelihood that some advanced life form don’t exist somewhere is basically zero.

Plus we have been in contact with him for many many years.

Think about Star Treks prime directive rule of non interference, but we are basically lab rats for them. We are much more violent and scary than 99% of universe. They want us left out here on boonies.
Posted by olgoi khorkhoi
priapism survivor
Member since May 2011
14895 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 6:38 pm to
Compared to monkeys playing Mozart, interstellar space travel seems like a small thing.
Posted by NOLALGD
Member since May 2014
2250 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 6:47 pm to
quote:

But keep in mind that this is for a single tiny particle jumping a few nanometers across a barrier. For large objects (like cars) jumping meters past each other is another matter. That probability is so small that for the lifetimes of billions of universes it still isn't happening. It's greater than zero, but so incredibly tiny that we can confidently say it just won't happen.


I think I remember someone trying to calculate the odds of two similar sized objects doing this and it was something like 1 in some number with a million zero's. And to be perfectly clear for the OT that is not 1 in 1,000,000. It is 1 in that number with a million zero's behind it!
Posted by Soup Sammich
Member since Aug 2015
3301 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 6:51 pm to
quote:

In 20 years of space travel (sputnik 57 - Voyager 77) we launched Voyager. It is now in interstellar space some 14 billion miles from Earth, which is farther past Pluto than the distance from the sun to Pluto. If another civilization has maybe been around for maybe only 200 years longer than us who's to say what they can/are accomplishing.


Man has made huge leaps in a relatively short period but interstellar travel within a lifetime is nowhere close to being feasible. The energy required to even travel at the speed of light is a huge obstacle. (Huge understatement)

Like in my OP, time seems to be the biggest hurdle. A planet being wiped out by asteroids isn’t that rare. Earth had a volcano kill all but about 10,000 people according to scientists.
Just the destruction of the Library of Alexandria may have set humans back centuries. *that is just an uneducated guess

The point is that it isn’t unreasonable to think other life forms in the universe would have similar problems.

But I’m not necessarily disagreeing with you because it’s a good chance what you posted is true. I just like discussions on this topic.
Posted by nola000
Lacombe, LA
Member since Dec 2014
13139 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 6:58 pm to
The OP is forgetting about Moore's Law and Accelerating Change, not to mention the Technological Singularity
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