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S & P 500 Forward P/E Ratio at great buy levels
Posted on 4/8/25 at 11:40 pm
Posted on 4/8/25 at 11:40 pm
Just doing a bit of research (yes I know the volitility is number 1 currently) but with everyone saying how over inlfated the market and indexes were for the last year..it's really a value buy at this point. Am I missing something besides the obvious geopolitical stuff?
ETA: it's below 18 currently
ETA: it's below 18 currently
This post was edited on 4/8/25 at 11:41 pm
8
Posted on 4/8/25 at 11:54 pm to DraggingPride
quote:18 is above the long-term average. It's certainly more fair than it was 2 weeks ago, but I don't know about "great buy".
S & P 500 Forward P/E Ratio at great buy levels
DraggingPride
Just doing a bit of research (yes I know the volitility is number 1 currently) but with everyone saying how over inlfated the market and indexes were for the last year..it's really a value buy at this point. Am I missing something besides the obvious geopolitical stuff?
ETA: it's below 18 currently
Posted on 4/8/25 at 11:56 pm to Big Scrub TX
What would be a great buy number?
Posted on 4/9/25 at 12:06 am to Big Scrub TX
Fair point, I guess I got a little too hyped up about the opportunity to enter
Posted on 4/9/25 at 12:11 am to PNW_TigerSaint
quote:A GREAT buy? Starting maybe at 12X?
What would be a great buy number?
Posted on 4/9/25 at 12:18 am to DraggingPride
18x is mostly based off of pre-tariff earnings expectations.
I prefer forward PE over traditional PE, but it’s still an educated guess at best. For perspective, GFC bottom was around 12 forward PE, which is still another 50% fall from here.
ETA: was closer to 9 forward PE…
I prefer forward PE over traditional PE, but it’s still an educated guess at best. For perspective, GFC bottom was around 12 forward PE, which is still another 50% fall from here.
ETA: was closer to 9 forward PE…
This post was edited on 4/9/25 at 12:25 am
Posted on 4/9/25 at 12:24 am to PNW_TigerSaint
quote:
What would be a great buy number?
Nibbling here is fine but you have to have a significant confidence in earnings to hold up an even appreciate to buy here IMO.
Food for thought…
Posted on 4/9/25 at 5:36 am to DraggingPride
I just worry the bid side has peaked. That’s not saying that prices have peaked just that the easiest money has been squeezed from the trade as we enter a more uncertain era.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 6:35 am to DraggingPride
quote:
it's below 18 currently
Now run the numbers with earnings at $225 …
Posted on 4/9/25 at 7:10 am to DraggingPride
Nobody really knows how the E part of P/E will be affected by a trade war. My bet is it goes lower. As JPM’s Dimon said last week, “there will be blood”. You haven’t seen blood yet.
This post was edited on 4/9/25 at 7:15 am
Posted on 4/9/25 at 10:33 am to DraggingPride
Them tariffs about to tank earnings and earnings forecasts for 99% of companies. I won’t be upgrading my phone this year
Posted on 4/9/25 at 10:36 am to fareplay
I haven't upgraded a phone in nearly 5 years and don't see the need now. It does what I need it to do.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 10:40 am to VABuckeye
Biggest issue is battery life for me. 93% capacity after 1 year sucks.
We’re likely cutting discretionary spend Incase layoffs hit me. Just spend less now
We’re likely cutting discretionary spend Incase layoffs hit me. Just spend less now
This post was edited on 4/9/25 at 10:41 am
Posted on 4/9/25 at 10:42 am to DraggingPride
quote:
S & P 500 Forward P/E Ratio at great buy levels
Might want to wait and see where the "E" portion of that ratio is at in the coming weeks. Financials kick off earnings season on Friday.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 11:58 am to slackster
CAPE needs to be cut in half before we’re talking value with risk free rates where they are and rising. MBS is good value right now with rates rising due to their convexity profiles and limited risk of forced selling of single family homes.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 12:00 pm to VABuckeye
quote:
I haven't upgraded a phone in nearly 5 years and don't see the need now. It does what I need it to do.
same. may have had mine longer than that
Posted on 4/9/25 at 12:06 pm to VABuckeye
quote:
I haven't upgraded a phone in nearly 5 years and don't see the need now. It does what I need it to do.
Unless your battery has gone to shite or you smashed the screen, I don't see the point.
Seems to me like if you just keep the OS up to date, everything will be fine.
Posted on 4/10/25 at 11:19 pm to fareplay
quote:assuming the other countries can out wait us...which most can't, this is all to reduce ours once they budge
Them tariffs about to tank earnings and earnings forecasts for 99% of companies. I won’t be upgrading my phone this year
Posted on 4/11/25 at 9:46 am to DraggingPride
quote:
S & P 500 Forward P/E Ratio at great buy levels
quote:
Am I missing something besides the obvious geopolitical stuff?
The the 'E' in PE ratio is in the denominator of the formula. If companies start to report lower earnings guidance, the forward PE ratio will not look so good.
All comes down to whether you're bullish or bearish given the current economic climate.
Personally, I think the market got ahead of itself after the November election results. Tariffs not withstanding. I felt some profit taking was inevitable and not sure earnings could keep up with the optimism.
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