Based on 2021 crime statistics, the implied lifetime murder rate for black males is 4.5%.

Reason # 1,277 why I spend 99% of my time in whiteyville.

Nope not a fed, no way.

While I WHOLEHEARTEDLY agree that the crime in the black community is out of control, the math on this is off.

The 4508 number is the expected number of murders committed by blacks in a span of 70 years. To estimate the percentage of black men who are murderers, you have to divide that number by the total number of all black men that will exist in a 70 year span. In theory, the rate will still be 64.4/100,000.

Black crime is a major issue, but that percentage is way too high. 1 out of 20 black men will not commit murder. 1 out of 370 white men are not murderers either.


Edit: I'll concede there is something wrong with my math and interpretation too, since 4508 murderers in 70 years is way too low.

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I'm not saying the math is right, but it's 4508 per 100,000 people in a span of 70 years.

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That's what they intended, but 4508/100000 assumes the murder rate itself keeps increasing each year.

I also view it as this: if the 4.5% number was accurate, then nearly 1/20 black male LSU athletes will commit murder in their lifetimes, and nearly 1/370 white male LSU athletes will commit murder in their lifetimes. We have a large enough sample size to know this isn't likely true.

Again, black men commit an inordinate level of violent crime, and it angers me dearly. I'm not arguing against that point.

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I also view it as this: if the 4.5% number was accurate, then nearly 1/20 black male LSU athletes will commit murder in their lifetimes

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It doesn't mean that at all.

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then nearly 1/20 black male LSU athletes will commit murder in their lifetimes, and nearly 1/370 white male LSU athletes will commit murder in their lifetimes.

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Only if LSU athletes commit murder at rates commensurate with their base demographic and are not considered exceptional populations -- which they are. Murder rates are much lower for the "college educated" cohort, yes?

I did an estimate for north baton rouge.
Black males.
It was like 1 in 12 would be murdered at some point.

I'm drinking beer and watching wrestling now. But, I'll have to look over this guys method tomorrow.

Sounds a little high, but you never know.

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was like 1 in 12 would be murdered at some point

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Horrible if true. And it may be. I went to Central Middle is the 90s and there were black students from Glen Oaks and Brookstown bussed in. Don't know how many to be exact, probably more than 24 males, but I do know that 2 of them were murdered by the time I finished high school.

Im thinking it’s high too because you forget that black men actually commit a high rate of serial homicides. Meaning the number of people doing killings is smaller because you have multiple offenders.

Other than perpetually keeping people slaves to government handouts, we are doing a shite job on letting criminals out.