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Real Clear Polling No Toss Up Map
Posted on 11/3/24 at 8:41 am
Posted on 11/3/24 at 8:41 am
5
Posted on 11/3/24 at 9:14 am to rds dc
This poll has been dog shite the last 8 years. Good news, they’ve historically underestimated the Republican vote by a few %.
If this holds, Trump may well win VA.
If this holds, Trump may well win VA.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 9:21 am to fjlee90
RCP is the average of all polls. The good polls and the skewed polls.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 9:24 am to rds dc
I could actually see that being the map, but I think we pick up Wisconsin. I keep hearing about Nevada and the firewall, but I will believe it when I see that as well.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 9:24 am to rds dc
The Harris +0.5% in Michigan is skewed by a stupid CNN poll that shows Harris +6%.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 9:26 am to rds dc
The Kamala crowd is very bullish on their chances. One dude said this is the first week he has had confidence.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 9:27 am to tigeraddict
quote:
RCP is the average of all polls. The good polls and the skewed polls.
I know what RCP is. I can’t be convinced that taking bad data and averaging it turns it into good data somehow. Way too much variability in the data sets for this to be meaningful, statistically anyways.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 9:29 am to fjlee90
So the average of almost every poll underestimating Trump? LOL, can someone point out the 1 or 2 reliable ones?
Posted on 11/3/24 at 9:37 am to rds dc
I think this map is closest to what it will actually be but I don’t trust Ohilly and Pittsburgh so watch PA go Harris but Trump flip one of WI or MI in which case he still wins the election. Any break in that blue wall and she’s done.
This post was edited on 11/3/24 at 9:38 am
Posted on 11/3/24 at 9:48 am to fjlee90
quote:
This poll has been dog shite the last 8 years
That's not a poll.
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