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Started By
Message
re: While America Slept -- Bessent's Remarks to the 2026 Reagan National Economic Forum
Posted on 5/31/26 at 8:50 am to wdhalgren
Posted on 5/31/26 at 8:50 am to wdhalgren
quote:
you're the one making assumptions, or just making things up on the fly.
What ?
My comments about the American economy are completely fact-based.
quote:
We're on a path to a debt crisis
I don't disagree, but we are still in a better position than our economic competition. We also, at least until this proposed Trumpian devolution takes hold, have the economy to deal with it better than our competition.
quote:
AND a currency crisis
No. Due to our economic and international status, along with the failure of the Euro, USD has even less competition today.
The economic discussion is much more of a relative-based discussion than an absolute status discussion, but the absolute status/facts do matter. Currency is almost entirely relative, as you have to have a replacement. The USD has no peer. There is nothing potentially on the horizon as a replacement. The Euro was created to challenge the US, backed by the best economies in the world that weren't the US, and it completely failed.
2
Posted on 5/31/26 at 9:04 am to wdhalgren
quote:
We're on a path to a debt crisis AND a currency crisis. If the rest of the world wants to join us in going over that cliff, that's their problem
While I completely agree with this, why are you so vigorously defending the person / administration that will have (by the end of his 2nd term) contributed roughly 30-40% of this problem?
This current economy is being held together by govt spending (ie debt) and a single entity w/ bubble possibilities (AI).
At some point, you have to call a spade a spade.
This post was edited on 5/31/26 at 9:06 am
Posted on 5/31/26 at 9:14 am to NC_Tigah
Bessent is awesome, period!
Posted on 5/31/26 at 9:17 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
My comments about the American economy are completely fact-based.
Fact based or not (and that's debatable), they're irrelevant. The US consumes more than it produces, has done so every year for the last 50+. The trade deficit in goods is exploding higher (over a trillion a year now) at the same time the state and federal budget deficits are exploding higher. The combination of those deficits, trade and budget, are a ticking time bomb for the dollar and the only way to fix them is by consuming less and producing more. Every resolution will be very painful, i.e., not optimal. Most of them are involuntary at this point.
quote:
Currency is almost entirely relative, as you have to have a replacement. The USD has no peer.
This is the silliest argument ever used in a debate; we're too big, too important, to fail. It's so patently absurd that it's not worth debating. Every massive tree eventually rots and falls. Every fiat currency eventually falls too. The US dollar may collapse in isolation or simultaneously along with every other abused fiat currency, but it's headed for a fall relative to things with intrinsic value. No matter how that plays out, we will suffer greatly when the next currencies become materials needed for survival.
You didn't give me your "optimal" solution. I guess you can say "optimal" is relative too, but if you think that means less painful than tariffs, you're mistaken. The pain is baked into the cake.
This post was edited on 5/31/26 at 9:19 am
Posted on 5/31/26 at 9:25 am to Ten Bears
It's a valid question, and the answer is that Trump is at least addressing the problems. Tariffs for trade, cutting bureaucracy for budget, fixing illegal immigration for budget. The other side tried none of that, entrenched Republicans have done nothing, Congress has done nothing, states have done nothing, and they all actively obstruct every attempt Trump makes to change anything, up to and including judicial overreach and violent means. The better question than why support Trump is "who else has suggested anything better"?
As for Trump's contribution to our debt, Covid and interest on the debt, exploding social security, medicare, welfare state, were a massive part of those expenditures. I posted on this board in 2016 that our federal debt would double over the next 10 years; it did. If Trump had neglected to fund any of those exploding costs above, you'd be accusing him of having crashed the economy several years ago.
As for Trump's contribution to our debt, Covid and interest on the debt, exploding social security, medicare, welfare state, were a massive part of those expenditures. I posted on this board in 2016 that our federal debt would double over the next 10 years; it did. If Trump had neglected to fund any of those exploding costs above, you'd be accusing him of having crashed the economy several years ago.
This post was edited on 5/31/26 at 9:51 am
Posted on 5/31/26 at 9:28 am to wdhalgren
You’re taking a legitimate concern about deficits and overconsumption and stretching it into ‘collapse is inevitable, pain is baked in, and anyone questioning the path is unserious.’
That’s a very confident view but it’s not the same thing as having settled the debate.
That’s a very confident view but it’s not the same thing as having settled the debate.
Posted on 5/31/26 at 9:31 am to CrystalPreserves
quote:
You’re taking a legitimate concern about deficits and overconsumption and stretching it into ‘collapse is inevitable, pain is baked in, and anyone questioning the path is unserious.’
That’s a very confident view but it’s not the same thing as having settled the debate.
People don't like that discussion, but I started studying this in the 1980's. Not chat boards, but textbooks, technical books, data, reading, studying and trying to understand it from every angle. I, along with many others, knew we were headed for a debt crisis well before the collapse of 2008. I never thought we'd be so foolish as to print money as the solution. Didn't even attempt to address the debt; just the oppposite. When that happened, I read and studied more until I understood that we're now facing a currency crisis. We're going to devalue the dollar at an accelerating pace. Nothing I can say here will summarize all of that, so if you believe otherwise, we're at an impass.
Is a crash inevitable? I won't say that but it's very likely. Maybe technology, AI, can find new forms of abundant, portable, affordable and relatively clean energy. Beyond that I don't see how we save the dollar.
This post was edited on 5/31/26 at 10:11 am
Posted on 5/31/26 at 10:18 am to CrystalPreserves
quote:No.
People are asking whether the economic strategy is delivering measurable results.
Obviously, Iran is currently a drag.
Likewise, the onshoring benefits of tariffs were NEVER going to immediate.
So what you mean is people are asking, "Daddy, daddy, are we there yet? Are we there yet, daddy?"
Posted on 5/31/26 at 10:27 am to wdhalgren
quote:
The US consumes more than it produces, has done so every year for the last 50+.
This just means we're rich and confirms my argument.
quote:
The trade deficit in goods is exploding higher (over a trillion a year now) at the same time the state and federal budget deficits are exploding higher.
Conflation.
And I already addressed the debt issue. It's a major issue, but we're better off than basically everyone.
quote:
This is the silliest argument ever used in a debate; we're too big, too important, to fail. I
If the USD fails, that means we're Western Europe after the Western Roman Empire fell. Immediate devolution and centuries of squalor.
This reminds me of the Tom Moore quote on why Peyton Manning's backup didn't get any reps in practice:
quote:
Fellas, if 18 goes down we're fricked, and we don't practice fricked.
The backdrop of total collapse of the global economy and devolution of human society means that no argument is a good one. This isn't some "gotcha" like you think it is.
Posted on 5/31/26 at 10:33 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
He's promoting a less efficient system that will be very expensive for American consumers.
You know this how? I mean do you understand automation at all? How smart is it to “outsource” critical segments of the market. Did we learn anything from Covid?
quote:
This system will raise prices and lower our SOL, while diverting resources from our more productive and advantageous economic areas to lower-level, inefficient, and less advantageous economic areas.
Bet you believe Tarriffs will cause massive inflation as well? Economics is not your forte and you can only regurgitate drivel from liberal media. Stick with traffic court or no contest divorces. That is about you are capable of intellectually grasping.
Posted on 5/31/26 at 10:36 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
SlowFlowPro
The fact you think you know better than Scott Bessent should illustrate to the entire board how delusional you really are!
Posted on 5/31/26 at 10:46 am to ABearsFanNMS
quote:
You know this how?
It's basic math and market prices.
To make these manufactured good viable to be produced in the US, you have to raise prices (without other undiscussed policies like eliminating minimum wage or attacking the regulatory state) or subsidize the industry via government.
Either route means less money circulating elsewhere in the economy. Either consumers are paying more for these goods or are being taxed.
That means less money circulating in our more productive areas.
And yeah, you'll have "factory salaries" adding to the tin, but you'll lose higher-paying salaries in those more productive industries.
So we make goods more expensive, shift spending to less productive industry, take away spending on on more productive industries, losing jobs and those salaries circulating. It's a complete shift in economic output and SES.
quote:
How smart is it to “outsource” critical segments of the market.
You're doing the Democrat thing and excusing your socialism by including it in a term. They famously just did this with infrastructure under Biden.
You're just changing "infrastructure" to "national security." Same meme is in play.
quote:
Economics is not your forte and you can only regurgitate drivel from liberal media.
My arguments are anti-liberal
They believe in this market manipulation and doing it for the "working man" was a DEM policy long before Trump incorporated it into his populism. This is a classic DEM-left policy. Trump just rebranded it as "populism" and many on the right adopted it with him.
Posted on 5/31/26 at 10:48 am to IMSA_Fan
Econ 101 is your friend
Posted on 5/31/26 at 10:49 am to ABearsFanNMS
quote:
The fact you think you know better than Scott Bessent should illustrate to the entire board how delusional you really are!
I think Scott Bessent is relaying administration talking points. He's being a good soldier.
Bessent, like the admin, has shifted on how to sell tariffs, I must remind you.
Remember the "Refinance the debt" narrative?
He's even had to backtrack on prior coments calling tariffs inflationary
quote:
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday ?said he was wrong when ?he and his Key Square investment firm told ?partners in January 2024 - before U.S. President Donald Trump won the presidency - that "tariffs are inflationary."
This wasn't a decade ago. That was in 2024
Posted on 5/31/26 at 10:50 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
cheap, stable money builds factories
No.
Demand and profitability builds factories.
Yeah, they all do.
This post was edited on 5/31/26 at 10:50 am
Posted on 5/31/26 at 11:02 am to wdhalgren
I respect the time you’ve put into it.
I just think there’s an important difference between ‘I’ve developed a deeply informed conviction’ and ‘the matter is largely settled.’
Those are not quite the same thing.
I just think there’s an important difference between ‘I’ve developed a deeply informed conviction’ and ‘the matter is largely settled.’
Those are not quite the same thing.
Posted on 5/31/26 at 11:09 am to SlowFlowPro
We're
No, we're not. We have more debt, in relative and absolute terms than most of the first world, and we run massive trade deficits to boot. In other words, we're the dependent party. We're dependent on them to support our consumption and our currency. If they stop holding dollars, dollar based debt, or buying our assets, which they absolutely will at some point as our debt balloons and the Fed intermittently monetizes it in increasing amounts, then the dollar is toast. Eventually, like every other creditor in history, they will say "No mas", or their currencies will follow (or lead) ours down the tube.
No other first world country of note has our lethal combination of massive, rapidly increasing debt and foreign dependency for consumption. Our negative $30 trillion dollar net international investment position is a millstone that our creditors carry, but saying they will never stop accumulating more short of drowning is pure hubris.
I told you there are no optimal solutions, just painful solutions. It's not a gotcha, it's a fact. The fact that some other countries will share that future pain is no consolation.
quote:
we're better off than basically everyone.
No, we're not. We have more debt, in relative and absolute terms than most of the first world, and we run massive trade deficits to boot. In other words, we're the dependent party. We're dependent on them to support our consumption and our currency. If they stop holding dollars, dollar based debt, or buying our assets, which they absolutely will at some point as our debt balloons and the Fed intermittently monetizes it in increasing amounts, then the dollar is toast. Eventually, like every other creditor in history, they will say "No mas", or their currencies will follow (or lead) ours down the tube.
No other first world country of note has our lethal combination of massive, rapidly increasing debt and foreign dependency for consumption. Our negative $30 trillion dollar net international investment position is a millstone that our creditors carry, but saying they will never stop accumulating more short of drowning is pure hubris.
quote:
The backdrop of total collapse of the global economy and devolution of human society means that no argument is a good one. This isn't some "gotcha" like you think it is.
I told you there are no optimal solutions, just painful solutions. It's not a gotcha, it's a fact. The fact that some other countries will share that future pain is no consolation.
This post was edited on 5/31/26 at 11:27 am
Posted on 5/31/26 at 11:10 am to Strannix
quote:
And in the name of efficiency, we began to celebrate “just in time” while neglecting “just in case.”
This is a great point. People bow down to TPS (Toyota) for JIT.
There’s value in security and contingencies that are more important than keeping costs as low as possible.
This post was edited on 5/31/26 at 11:11 am
Posted on 5/31/26 at 11:11 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:In what way?
He's promoting a less efficient system
quote:That viewpoint massively discounts, or completely ignores, long-term consumer hazards associated with predatory business/trade practices.
while diverting resources from our more productive and advantageous economic areas to lower-level, inefficient, and less advantageous economic areas.
Posted on 5/31/26 at 11:15 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
SlowFlowPro
I figured one of the Useful Idiots would enter this discussion sooner or later.
Bad news for me? I bet $50 bucks it would be Bunk
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