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re: CFB Week 5 Betting Thread

Posted on 9/29/22 at 4:31 pm to
Posted by El Magnifico
La casa de tu mamá
Member since Jan 2014
7017 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 4:31 pm to
3 Leg Parlay

Kentucky +6.5
MSU -4
Arkansas +17.5
Posted by Jon Ham
Member since Jun 2011
28637 posts
Posted on 9/30/22 at 7:01 am to
A&M money line
Arkansas +17
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
25455 posts
Posted on 9/30/22 at 7:04 am to
quote:

3 Leg Parlay

Kentucky +6.5
MSU -4
Arkansas +17.5


All kinds of variance on this play. 6/1 isn't near enough value to make that bet.
Posted by hubertcumberdale
Member since Nov 2009
6567 posts
Posted on 9/30/22 at 7:54 am to
quote:


On average, much higher scoring in college football compared to the nfl, so the teased points aren’t worth as much.

Better value on teasers for NFL betting.



Even the majority of NFL spreads are off by an average of at least 7 points, which is how i think the idea of Teasers came into existence (from a books perspectives, since a teaser is usually 6.5-6 points to the spread for football)

quote:

For example, the NFL is by far the easiest league to create point spreads for. Double-digit lines are few and far between and very rarely will they be greater than 14 points. Yet, since 2002, nearly 60 percent of NFL games have been decided by more than seven points of the spread, according to Spreadapedia. More than 28 percent of NFL games have been decided by more than 14 points over the past 10 seasons. And only 5.5 percent of games have landed exactly on the closing point spread.


quote:

Even on those rare occasions when a final score does duplicate the point spread, oddsmakers don’t deserve all the credit. Bettors are more responsible for the closing lines than oddsmakers. In fact, after glancing at their power ratings, checking injury reports and spitting out a number designed, in most cases, to attract even action on both sides, oddsmakers’ jobs are pretty much done. It then becomes the bettors’ job to decide whether a team will beat another by a certain amount of points, thus shaping the line into its closing number.
This post was edited on 9/30/22 at 7:57 am
Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26587 posts
Posted on 9/30/22 at 8:06 am to
The juice may get too inflated, but you'd think there would theoretically be value in taking alternate spreads for big +money.
Posted by Blutarsky
112th Congress
Member since Jan 2004
10037 posts
Posted on 9/30/22 at 8:15 am to
Tonight:

Boise St -6.5
Washington -2.5
UNLV -14

If Bachmeier decides to sit and transfer, it’s a good thing for Boise. He has been dog shite this year at QB.
Posted by SirWinston
PNW
Member since Jul 2014
82744 posts
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:39 am to
Do you think the Boise moneyline is relatively safe?

Was thinking about teasing them up to +3.5 on a 3 teamer
This post was edited on 9/30/22 at 9:41 am
Posted by lsufb1912
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2021
5965 posts
Posted on 9/30/22 at 10:28 am to
quote:

Because everyone knows Kentucky really kind of sucks and people believe in Lane's offense.


I’d bet on Will Levis & UK offense before I bet on Jaxson Dart.

I’m taking UK alt spread +7.5 just to be safe, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they get the W.
Posted by LSUSLU106
Member since Mar 2015
534 posts
Posted on 9/30/22 at 11:14 am to
Back up is a redshirt freshman saw action against Oregon state. He didn't really set the world on fire when he played. SDSU little more stout on defense than OSU I think Bachmeier is there best option right now because I think they would have moved on by now if he wasn't. I like SDSU tonight until Boise proves anything I will keep fading.
Posted by Bunk Moreland
Member since Dec 2010
54057 posts
Posted on 9/30/22 at 11:16 am to
What has UCLA looked like this year? I know they scraped by South Alabama. I'm inclined to jump on a hot Washington team playing at a dead Rose Bowl.
Posted by High C
viewing the fall....
Member since Nov 2012
54179 posts
Posted on 9/30/22 at 11:23 am to
Last night/ tonight, 5 leg (+591):

Utah St v BYU - alt U64.5 (hit)
Tulane v Houston - alt U58.5
SDSU v Boise St. - alt U42.5
Washington ML
UNLV ML
Posted by LSUSLU106
Member since Mar 2015
534 posts
Posted on 9/30/22 at 11:26 am to
They have looked alright. They have not played anybody with a pulse yet. South Alabama has been their best competition so far and they barely escaped at home with a win. UCLA will be without a few defensive linemen tonight as well. Should be a good game tonight I like Washington and Penix to get the job done though tonight. Might be a shootout but Huskies offense is better.
Posted by Winston Cup
Dallas Cowboys Fan
Member since May 2016
65520 posts
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:13 pm to
i love middle tenn st tonight
Posted by Winston Cup
Dallas Cowboys Fan
Member since May 2016
65520 posts
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:14 pm to


I always liked these charts tho the accuracy not guaranteed
Posted by Winston Cup
Dallas Cowboys Fan
Member since May 2016
65520 posts
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:15 pm to
Another week, another Pac-12 spread drawing very strong action at @CaesarsSports.

While not at the same level as USC at Oregon State, Washington (currently -3) at UCLA has gotten over twice as much money wagered on its spread than any other Week 5 college football game.
Posted by Bunk Moreland
Member since Dec 2010
54057 posts
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:17 pm to
Washington feels very trappy, but call me Joey Squareplay.
Posted by Gings5
HTX
Member since Jul 2016
8363 posts
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:26 pm to
I’m not big on parlays but this has good juice.

Minnesota ML
LSU ML
Baylor ML
Kentucky ML
Wake Forest ML

+2500
Posted by LSUSLU106
Member since Mar 2015
534 posts
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:56 pm to
Yeah that is just one books numbers. But its good to see. Washington might be trappy but I will take my chances with a 1 unit play on it. Looking forward to watching it.
Posted by PeteRose
Hall of Fame
Member since Aug 2014
16970 posts
Posted on 9/30/22 at 1:44 pm to
Anyone in here do props?
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6830 posts
Posted on 9/30/22 at 2:03 pm to
Assuming you mean player props? I try to look at them on nights with a few games like tonight, but I don't have time on Saturdays.

Supposedly Pratt is out for Tulane tonight.
This post was edited on 9/30/22 at 2:03 pm
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