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re: Forecaster who hasn't missed a presidential prediction in 40 YEARS reveals prediction
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:07 am to lowhound
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:07 am to lowhound
Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
No, we just have high and growing inflation and rates.
2 year inverted yield curve is still happening and a recession follows that. Always. The average time lag can span 12 to 24 months, according to the San Francisco Fed. Since 1978, the longest delay between a yield curve inversion and the start of a recession was 22 months
No, we just have high and growing inflation and rates.
2 year inverted yield curve is still happening and a recession follows that. Always. The average time lag can span 12 to 24 months, according to the San Francisco Fed. Since 1978, the longest delay between a yield curve inversion and the start of a recession was 22 months
quote:
Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
0
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:07 am to Damone
quote:
Trump lost to Brandon
But did he really?
If anything, the past years have demonstrated that there is no effective way to challenge election results, no matter how outrageous pipe bursting, kicking out opposing party supervisors, covering windows, "delay" vote counting, or, going against state laws regarding mail-in-voting may seem.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:09 am to Covingtontiger77
Anyone who thinks Trump is going to win is delusional. There is no way they are going to let that happen.
This country, as it was originally formed, is done. It has been for a long time but the facade is being dropped as they have won the game of submission.
This country, as it was originally formed, is done. It has been for a long time but the facade is being dropped as they have won the game of submission.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:13 am to Covingtontiger77
quote:
Forecaster who hasn't missed a presidential prediction in 40 YEARS reveals prediction
Well that's a lie. He missed it in 2000 when he predicted Gore would win. Also, he usually makes his final prediction in August so I'm not too sure how much of a political savant he is.
quote:
He will likely make his final prediction in August, according to the Guardian. Lichtman’s only blemish on his record is his prediction that Al Gore would defeat George W. Bush in 2000.
LINK
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:14 am to Covingtontiger77
quote:
It should be noted that while he technically was incorrect in 2000, predicting Al Gore would win, he believes that to be a stolen election and said that Gore won the popular vote.
So did he really predict the winner correctly the last 40 years?
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:14 am to Steadyhands
quote:
That should be easier based on the track record. Everyone paying attention to actual things that effect their personal lives can see that their dollar isn't going as far under Biden and has steadily/drastically gotten worse, noticeably worse, even after trumps botch job with covid.
Under normal circumstances this would be true but Trump is the one that makes this not a slam dunk. There are people out there who dislike Trump so much they don't care if gasoline or milk is $10 a gallon they simply are not going to vote for Trump. Trump changes everything and his TDS cult can't understand this because they have convinced themselves somehow that Trump actually has high approval ratings.
Its the most bizarre thing ever. 
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:15 am to ronricks
So you think Christie would beat Biden?
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:23 am to ronricks
quote:
Nominating Trump made this an option. This election should be a slam dunk for Republicans but won't be because Trump.
This fantasy of yours only works if people like you and the rest of the retard brigade voted Biden and will again.
I’m not buying anyone else would win.
If you are a registered independent and you agree with most of what Biden has done and are happy with the direction we are going you are voting him again. You aren’t voting for the challenger.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:28 am to GREENHEAD22
quote:i think theres a decent chance that Trump will “win”, i.e. end up with more electoral votes
Anyone who thinks Trump is going to win is delusional. There is no way they are going to let that happen.
however i dont believe he will take office in January 2025
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:33 am to Covingtontiger77
He’s in on another steal. Even Stevie Wonder sees this.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:34 am to ronricks
quote:neither would they vote for Biden
There are people out there who dislike Trump so much they don't care if gasoline or milk is $10 a gallon they simply are not going to vote for Trump.
despite everything going against him in 2020, Trump garnered more votes than any GOP candidate in the history of the US
that tells me a lot of people who “disliked” him still voted for him and probably would again
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:36 am to FearlessFreep
quote:
despite everything going against him in 2020, Trump garnered more votes than any GOP candidate in the history of the US
That's a cute fact but its irrelevant considering his opponent got more votes and actually won. Also, without mail in voting Trump doesn't hit that total and nether does Biden. We went over the numbers last week on here no need to rehash it.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:36 am to ronricks
What fricking planet dropped you off on this earth?
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:36 am to ronricks
quote:
Nominating Trump made this an option.
Shut up dummy.
quote:
And when it comes down to the same 5 or 6 swing states as it did in 2016 and 2020 you will just scream 'fraud' 'cheating' 'rigged' etc.
Which states? Is Wisconsin one?
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:37 am to ronricks
quote:
Not Trump who lost to Biden last time
We already knew you weren’t a history buff.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:39 am to Froman
quote:
Well said.
quote:
Froman
Beautiful. Ronricks has inspired one of the most far left wackos on this site. :chef’s kiss:
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:40 am to ronricks
quote:
Nominating Trump made this an option. This election should be a slam dunk for Republicans but won't be because Trump. And when it comes down to the same 5 or 6 swing states as it did in 2016 and 2020 you will just scream 'fraud' 'cheating' 'rigged' etc. and pretend in make believe land that Trump is some super liked candidate when the actual truth is his approval numbers are almost as bad as Biden's.
I agree that Trump shouldn’t have been the nominee because he’s too tainted. I love him and will vote for him a third time but I do not believe he will win.
That leads me to where I think you’re wrong - there WILL be fraud in specific counties of the few major swing states that will lead to Biden being reelected. People will scream FRAUD and right so (because why would they stop what they got away with last time?). The media and left will claim there’s again no evidence of widespread fraud, and they’ll be right just like last time. Widespread fraud wasn’t needed last time and it won’t be necessary this time either. It’s only needed in a select few counties across a few states.
And you’re wrong that Trump is not some “super liked” candidate. He IS super liked, as a candidate . I hate him as a person but he’s exactly the candidate and hopefully future president we need. I don’t give a damn if he’s an a-hole.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:40 am to ronricks
quote:
There are people out there who dislike Trump so much they don't care if gasoline or milk is $10 a gallon they simply are not going to vote for Trump.
quote:
TDS
quote:
Cult
quote:
Ronricks
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:42 am to ronricks
quote:
That's a cute fact but its irrelevant considering his opponent got more votes and actually won. Also, without mail in voting Trump doesn't hit that total and nether does Biden. We went over the numbers last week on here no need to rehash it.
Hey! You actually comprehended what he said this time. You’re welcome for that lesson.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:42 am to dgnx6
quote:
This fantasy of yours only works if people like you and the rest of the retard brigade voted Biden and will again.
Its not a fantasy. A fantasy is believing that people who abhor Trump will vote for him just because things are 'bad'. Well, they were bad last time and he lost in a rout essentially. 2020 was worst economic year since 1946. We have all the statistics with regards to college educated suburban Moderates and Independents (votes Trump must have in 2024 to win) and he is doing awful with that group and many of them don't care how bad things get it won't make them vote for Trump. Trump has 6 months to 'fix' that but the chances of it happening are slim. Nobody on here id voting for Biden because they think he is doing a good job because even Stevie Wonder and Ray Charles can see he isn't BUT they will be voting against Trump. That is actually a real phenomenon - voters who disapprove of Biden's job but abhor Trump even more so they will vote Biden. It absolutely exists no matter how bad the TDS cult brigade on here tries to pretend otherwise. I'm on record on here saying those folks are voting against their best interests but they seem to not care for whatever reasons.
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