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re: Saints are embracing a "soft reset"
Posted on 5/2/24 at 7:47 am to PureBlood
Posted on 5/2/24 at 7:47 am to PureBlood
Carr played exactly at the level he is paid for (12th to 15th range for a starting QB). No one is trading for him. We have him at least two more years. Best case is he builds on last year's end and Kubiak's system is better.
0
Posted on 5/2/24 at 7:54 am to keakar
quote:
i doubt it, as long as gayle is still alive we are stuck with loomis, and allen is staying as long as loomis is staying, he isnt firing allen until he is scared of being fired himself and thats not happening until gayle dies and the team is sold
quote:
keakar
You consistently have some of the worst takes/opinions on this board
Posted on 5/2/24 at 8:00 am to PureBlood
quote:
Best case for this season is Derek Carr comes out playing really well
With a new offense, and his history of learning new offenses, this is not likely
quote:
and we can trade him off.
We just restructured him. This is effectively impossible.
Posted on 5/2/24 at 10:48 am to PureBlood
quote:
Best case for this season is Derek Carr comes out playing really well and we can trade him off. Signing him to a 4 year deal was a disaster, IMO.
They can't trade him. No one is going to want him with that contract.
Best case realistic scenario is that the defense continues to play relatively well, the offense with a different approach for the first time in 18 years shows improvement from last season, which allows the Saints to have a season similar to Tampa last year in an NFC South that while it might be better, still doesn't appear to have a dominant team. And the Saints do this ALL while being smart with the finances/assists. They don't restructure productive, but aging vets, just to compete now. If it is more cost effective to let them go than keep them, they do so. They don't buy high priced FA's they can't afford on the credit card. They don't trade a ton of future draft picks just to move up a few spots in the first or second round. They keep slowly getting younger and less expensive. If they can compete while doing so and remain somewhat interesting, fine. If not, that's ok too. But continue the path regardless of the results (at least for a few years)
Like others have said, they can't really afford to tear things down anyway. Continue to smartly build the roster so that maybe in a few years you have an opportunity to find a young QB to join an otherwise good roster. That worked for KC with Mahomes. It's worked for teams like Philly and San Francisco. It's not a 100% certainty that will work. But neither is drafting a QB at the top of the draft and sticking him on a team with little talent.
I think this season cemented the reality for the FO (and many fans) that the Brees/Payton run is completely over. The Saints aren't just a few players away from getting back to the Super Bowl, so spending money they don't have on a few high priced FAs or trading future draft picks for one more guy in the first or second round isn't going to get them there.
Posted on 5/2/24 at 11:23 am to PureBlood
quote:
Derek Carr comes out playing really well
Has a history of starting slow with new offenses, then really starts picking up steam in the backend of the season. Only possibility of this happening is if Kubiak tailors his offense, play calling to something similar to what we ran last year.
quote:
and we can trade him off
For starters, no trade clause
Then, there is the pesky cap implications. You would be looking at jumping his 2024 cap hit from $12.7M to $22.7M, and your 2025 cap hit drops from $51.5M to $50M. And for that $1.5M in savings, you don't have the chance to adjust the cap hit to get the team under the cap (could be viewed as a good or bad thing)
Finally, who do we roll out for the rest of the year? Peterman, Haener, Mond, Rattler?
quote:
Signing him to a 4 year deal was a disaster, IMO.
Bringing in Carr for 4 years "could: have been a great move. The issue is the way the contract was structured basically holds the team hostage through 2026, maybe even longer depending on future restructures/extensions to manipulate the cap.
Posted on 5/2/24 at 3:12 pm to Swagga
Don't really like making analogies but
quote]I’m completely fine with it if this is the direction. Let Allen drive the tank and a new staff come in with pieces to play.[/quote]
Not a fan of Allen nor do I hate him but y'all do realize the fricked up tank he is driving is the same tank Payton had for years and never did mechanical maintenance he just splashed an occasional new paint job on it.
quote]I’m completely fine with it if this is the direction. Let Allen drive the tank and a new staff come in with pieces to play.[/quote]
Not a fan of Allen nor do I hate him but y'all do realize the fricked up tank he is driving is the same tank Payton had for years and never did mechanical maintenance he just splashed an occasional new paint job on it.
Posted on 5/2/24 at 3:59 pm to Paytonisablowhard
quote:
is the same tank Payton had for years
Um
Posted on 5/2/24 at 4:09 pm to Handsome Pete
Posted on 5/2/24 at 5:54 pm to Handsome Pete
It's become clear to me that a hard rest or traditional "tanking" rarely works. The teams with the best Superbowl odds next season are the 49ers, Chiefs, Ravens, Bengals, Lions, Bills, Cowboys, and Eagles. Only the Bengals got there by tanking. Have to draft well. Need good coaching (though I'm side-eying Dallas and Philly). But you should always be trying to win, even if you'll never get a top 10 pick. Heck, the Rams spit on your 1st round picks. If your team is ready, you can always trade down for a QB like Buffalo and KC did. Or get one later like the Ravens, Eagles, or Dallas. Main thing is to have a legit team around him to maximize his potential early (and take advantage of the cap savings).
Posted on 5/2/24 at 8:08 pm to Handsome Pete
"um"
Maybe the context of the message didn't come through or either you didn't read it.
The tank I was referring to, ie no mechanical maintenance and just splashing a new paint job, is Payton is the biggest reason people want Dennis Allen fired. Payton was the main one that constructed the bad trades, bad free agents, horrible cap and when brees left, Payton didn't stick around long to go through the shite we have to now because of His decisions
Maybe the context of the message didn't come through or either you didn't read it.
The tank I was referring to, ie no mechanical maintenance and just splashing a new paint job, is Payton is the biggest reason people want Dennis Allen fired. Payton was the main one that constructed the bad trades, bad free agents, horrible cap and when brees left, Payton didn't stick around long to go through the shite we have to now because of His decisions
Posted on 5/2/24 at 11:52 pm to Paytonisablowhard
quote:
Maybe the context of the message didn't come through or either you didn't read it.
In my defense, it's a pretty tortured analogy.
Also, as long as we had Brees, mortgaging the future to win now was reasonable. In retrospect, I think the Davenport draft was the beginning of the end. We were still a contender with Drew, but that's when "win now" collided with arrogance and bit us in the arse.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 9:13 am to Hot Carl
quote:
One thing this does tell me, though, is Loomis feels his job security is rock solid,
Or it could be that Mickey does not control this team. He’s an accountant, people, not a football guy.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 9:34 am to David Bowman
quote:
It's become clear to me that a hard rest or traditional "tanking" rarely works.
In the context of how it gets used on this board, the purpose of the tank wouldn't necessarily be to get high draft picks to "quickly" build to a SB. The tank is to dump these overextended contracts, so the cap is more manageable. The high draft picks would be a byproduct.
Saints are roughly $70M over next year's cap. 6% of the cap is already designated to MT & Winston. If they trade Latt, you can probably count on your dead cap being 13% of the cap. What if Ram retires? Carr, AK & Cam are expected to count for 36% of the 2025 contract. A reset needs to happen, and it has to be a soft one that drags for a few years because of how bad these contracts are.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 12:06 pm to David Bowman
quote:
The teams with the best Superbowl odds next season are the 49ers, Chiefs, Ravens, Bengals, Lions, Bills, Cowboys, and Eagles. Only the Bengals got there by tanking.
Lions finished last four years in a row from 2018-2021. Never won more than 6 games. That feels like tanking.
Chiefs, ravens, bengals, cowboys, eagles, bills, 49ers all drafted their QB, and lions traded theirs away to a team going all in to win a SB
That seems to be the lesson to me. You need to draft your QB solution, or go get a QB if you have a true win now roster (see rams with Stafford and what Vikings tried with Cousins). Finding a QB any other way is very rare and difficult. We simply struck lighting with acquiring Brees how we did.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 2:36 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
Lions finished last four years in a row from 2018-2021. Never won more than 6 games. That feels like tanking.
You're proving my point. FOUR YEARS of finishing last is proof that tanking did not work. And that was with #1 draft pick Matt Stafford (left over from previous tanking). They didn't have a good season until last year. Are you prepared to suck for the next 7-8 years before even being competitive?
quote:
Chiefs, ravens, bengals, cowboys, eagles, bills, 49ers all drafted their QB
I certainly wouldn't deny that drafting a QB is the way to go. The point is none of these teams (except the Bengals) drafted their QB with their own top 10 pick. They all maintained good teams, then got lucky later in the draft or traded down to the 7-10:range.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 2:49 pm to Handsome Pete
My hope is that the new offensive system starts to click midseason once the offensive line gels, Carr plays consistently better down the stretch, and the Saints make the playoffs this season with at least 10 regular season wins.
In year two, after adding a few key pieces on the lines, the team looks good early, but Carr goes down with an injury for a month giving Rattler time to show flashes, win ing just enough to keep them in contention. Carr comes back, and the team makes a deeper playoff run as Carr plays like a top 10 QB down the stretch. Saints lose in the conference championship game.
In year 3, Carr is traded for an early/mid first round pick to give Rattler the best weapon in the draft, and the other first rounder is spent on a dominant defensive player. The youth movement gives them flexibility in free agency allowing them to take flyers on a couple wiley veterans on prove-it deals that work out. Saints win a superbowl.
Rattler makes it to a second deal and starts a dynasty.
In year two, after adding a few key pieces on the lines, the team looks good early, but Carr goes down with an injury for a month giving Rattler time to show flashes, win ing just enough to keep them in contention. Carr comes back, and the team makes a deeper playoff run as Carr plays like a top 10 QB down the stretch. Saints lose in the conference championship game.
In year 3, Carr is traded for an early/mid first round pick to give Rattler the best weapon in the draft, and the other first rounder is spent on a dominant defensive player. The youth movement gives them flexibility in free agency allowing them to take flyers on a couple wiley veterans on prove-it deals that work out. Saints win a superbowl.
Rattler makes it to a second deal and starts a dynasty.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 2:58 pm to kingbob
quote:
kingbob
I like your scenario. Except we'd never get a 1st round pick for Carr.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 3:07 pm to kingbob
quote:
In year 3, Carr is traded for an early/mid first round pick
Carr is not giving you a first. At this point he will be 35 and have a base salary of $50M. Plus, who knows what the cap implications would be to trade him since it's highly unlikely his base salary next year will only be $30M. Plus, you have to deal with the no trade clause which means he gets to decide where he wants to be traded, which will limit your compensation
But even before Mickey gets his hands on kicking the 2025 salary down the road, a trade in 2026 would result in $28.6M in dead money. If they do a restructure similar to what they did this year, that dead money will ballon to over $50M.
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