Bayesian Statistics and the Conversion Attempt

We probably get the 2pt conversion and also probably beat them in OT. We had all the momentum.

Without knowing the extra-point would be blocked or what the outcome of OT would be, there was probably no "wrong" decision in the moment. That is one of those where the HC has to make a call on "feel".

Even before the XP was blocked I wanted Kelly to go for two. LSU had just driven 99 yards, nearly unimpeded, in just over a minute. They would have had the ball in their possession, at the 2 yard line, with a hot QB, and a chance to end the game right then and there. A chance quite frankly they never should have had in the first place but for FSU foolishly fumbling on the LSU goal-line with a chance to make it a two possession game with very little time remaining.

I didn't want to move the ball back to the 25 in OT and give FSU another possession when LSU was probably fortunate to have a chance to win it in regulation anyway. In other words, LSU shouldn't have had a chance to win that game after the Nabers fumble...but they did, and after the TD was the time to take full advantage without giving FSU another chance to win.

Had LSU scored with a minute or two remaining on the clock then I probably would have said kick the XP and go to OT. But with no time left on the clock that was the time to go for the killshot

If BK was going to go for 2, it would've been better to do it after we cut it to 8. At least, that's what the numbers say. It gives you another opportunity to go for 2 if you miss the first one. If he always planned to try to win in overtime, then kicking the PAT both times made sense.

This kicker is really making a lot of people feel uneasy moving forward throughout the season.

Bayesian statistics also say you should go for it on 4th down in just about every situation. Statistics are great until you factor in the risk aversion associated with getting fired from your $10M job because you chose to be the outlier in your industry.

I'm not seeing the Bayesianism in the OP.

I felt like we should have gone for 2 with Daniels running it in
FSU hadn’t stopped him all day

If CBK feels like he as a 2 pt. conversion play in his pocket that he is very confident about then you go for two. That changes the percentages in your favor.

If CBK feels like he did not have a 2 pt. conversion play that he felt confident about then you kick the extra point.

He obviously felt like kicking the extra point was the right thing to do.

I agree that it was a pretty even decision, but I would have gone for 2. In OT, often the games is decided by a mistake. Maybe an lineman misses an assignment and the QB gets sacked. Maybe a DB misses an assignment and gives up an easy TD. Maybe somebody does something stupid. We were playing in our first game, with new systems, and a lot of new players, and they were a rather senior laden team that has been running the same system for years with a game under their belt. So, we were probably more likely to make a stupid error at that point. They might have had some more trick plays ready as well. So, I think the odds of the 2-pointer while we have momentum was the better call. Taking the kick wasn't a bad call though.