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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/11/23 at 7:49 pm to Darth_Vader
Posted on 6/11/23 at 7:49 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
If, and this is a HUGE “if”, it becomes apparent this Ukrainian offensive is going to threaten to cutoff Crimea, it is entirely possible, as a last resort, Russia would resort to tactical nuclear weapons
I think people have generally considered that and decided it would be unlikely because it doesn't help Russia to retain the peninsula (which still requires boots on the ground) and runs significant risks of undesirable consequences (trade with presently neutral or Russia leaning countries and further alienation of countries which used to be under Soviet rule).
Is it possible? If you assume Putin were unbalanced yes. But then you have to assume anything and everything involving Russia poses the risk of world destruction. That would be a terrible thing but doesn't change the calculations for the Kazaks, Ukrainians, etc.
Despite the rumors of ill health and instability Putin has largely behaved like an authoritarian who cares more about restoring the empire he grew up in than a madman.
quote:
As to where they’d use them, it would not be on cities like Kyiv*. That’s not what tactical nukes are for. Instead they would be used on the Ukrainian front line attacking formations, their headquarters, supply trains, and targets of they nature
I don't find that convincing. One nuke isn't doing that. Dozens of nukes brings in NATO and the United States (even assuming the first did not).
Russia (and the United States) have previously survived military losses when they thought the invaded would be willing to accept outside domination. I find it ironic as hell that Putin failed to learn anything about the limitations of military power from the failures of the United States in theaters like Afghanistan, Iraq, or Asia.
There are strategic advantages to Russia controlling Crimea for the projection of power but neither that nor their fantasy of controlling every potential western route of invasion (from Sweden to Ukraine) are feasible when the other countries have cumulatively larger populations and the power to resist. His overreaching for the whole of Ukraine seems likely to be a big part of his epitaph.
0
Posted on 6/11/23 at 7:52 pm to Darth_Vader
I don’t think Russia would tac nuke the front line because it won’t stop the war.
That’s the only reason I think if they use, it would be on Kyiv or Odessa.
That’s the only reason I think if they use, it would be on Kyiv or Odessa.
Posted on 6/11/23 at 8:23 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
don’t think Russia would tac nuke the front line because it won’t stop the war.
That’s the only reason I think if they use, it would be on Kyiv or Odessa.
What makes you think using a tac nuke on Kyiv or Odessa would stop the war?
Posted on 6/11/23 at 8:35 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The biggest lie in that particular Theiner statement was that Ukraine had 35 brigades prepared for the offensive.
It depends what he is counting. Besides the AFU, there is National Guard and Border Guard. If you count all of them it could be closer to 45 brigades. AFU can take territory but not have to police it afterwards. However as noted they call any unit a brigade.
Posted on 6/11/23 at 8:56 pm to CitizenK
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three areas of the front and made territorial gains on June 10 and 11.
Ukrainian forces made visually verified advances in western Donetsk Oblast and western Zaporizhia Oblast, which Russian sources confirmed but sought to downplay.
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that Russian forces are transferring their most combat-capable units from the Kherson direction to the Bakhmut and Zaporizhia directions.
Russian forces conducted a limited series of drone strikes targeting eastern Ukrainian border areas overnight on June 10 to 11.
Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin characterized the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) plan to formalize volunteer formations by July 1 as an attack on him and his forces.
Russia and Ukraine conducted a near one-for-one prisoner of war (POW) exchange.
Russian forces continued limited ground attacks south of Kreminna.
Ukrainian and Russian forces continued limited ground attacks around Bakhmut and on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
Ukrainian forces made gains near the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts and in western Zaporizhia Oblast as of June 10.
Russian milbloggers claimed that rain along the Zaporizhia Oblast front may slow Ukrainian operations in the coming days.
The Republic of Chechnya reportedly formed two new regiments – Akhmat-Russia and Akhmat-Chechnya – equipped with commercially-available Chinese armored equipment.
Saboteurs, reportedly including Ukrainian partisans, conducted two discrete improvised explosive device (IED) attacks against railways in occupied Kherson Oblast and Crimea.
Posted on 6/11/23 at 9:06 pm to StormyMcMan
Deleted.
This post was edited on 6/11/23 at 9:13 pm
Posted on 6/11/23 at 9:11 pm to GOP_Tiger
Deleted.
This post was edited on 6/11/23 at 9:12 pm
Posted on 6/11/23 at 9:11 pm to GOP_Tiger
That has played over and over with several links for a few days now.
Posted on 6/11/23 at 9:19 pm to CitizenK
quote:
That has played over and over with several links for a few days now.
Sorry about that. I read every post in this thread and try not to repeat stuff, but I'll admit that I don't watch every video. But I also get a bit annoyed when people repost stuff for the 3rd time, so I'll try to be more careful.
Posted on 6/11/23 at 9:30 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
conducted two discrete improvised explosive device (IED) attacks
Is that the normal way to describe them? idk. discrete I would assume is "hidden".
Posted on 6/11/23 at 9:33 pm to OleVaught14
Truthfully? International hesitancy to escalate and a frank inability of UA to coordinate anymore.
I’m not as certain china would condemn Russia as others here are.
I am not saying I think Russia will do it, I’m saying that the next few weeks are probably the highest risk and I don’t see a big advantage for Russia to nuke the front lines.
UA cannot retaliate equally to this and I don’t believe Russia is moving tac nukes to Belarus for NATO alone.
I’m not as certain china would condemn Russia as others here are.
I am not saying I think Russia will do it, I’m saying that the next few weeks are probably the highest risk and I don’t see a big advantage for Russia to nuke the front lines.
UA cannot retaliate equally to this and I don’t believe Russia is moving tac nukes to Belarus for NATO alone.
Posted on 6/11/23 at 10:06 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
Truthfully? International hesitancy to escalate and a frank inability of UA to coordinate anymore.
I’m not as certain china would condemn Russia as others here are.
I disagree, I think the international world would be forced to react and respond against Russia. And I think that would involve more than just new sanctions. Russia cannot survive a war with the west. The west knows it. Russia knows it. The world knows it. Something like that would be the end of Russia.
And while China might not outright condemn, they'd be forced into a position where they would need to stop supporting Russia. While there's no doubt China is a world power, if they outright side with Russia at that point theyd be left on an island to starve with Russia alone.
Posted on 6/11/23 at 10:13 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Russia and Ukraine conducted a near one-for-one prisoner of war (POW) exchange.
It's bizarre that they've continued exchanging prisoners throughout this conflict.
Posted on 6/11/23 at 10:16 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:
>vehicle is called "Mine Resistant Ambush Protected"
It's resisiant and protected, not invulnerable. It gives the occupants a chance to survive over what would happen in an unprotected vehicle. It was never meant to be a substitute for an APC.
Posted on 6/11/23 at 10:17 pm to OleVaught14
China is a failing State Xi's Covid clampdowns, the Damage of the One child policy , The Propped up economy the emerging warlords the military being a separate country within a country economy within an economy citizenship within a citizenship
It all will explode and crumble in the next 10 years
It all will explode and crumble in the next 10 years
Posted on 6/11/23 at 10:22 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
don’t think Russia would tac nuke the front line because it won’t stop the war.
The sole purpose tactical nuclear warheads is to use on battlefield environments.
Posted on 6/11/23 at 10:43 pm to jeffsdad
quote:
discrete I would assume is "hidden".
you're thinking of discreet. discrete means separate.
Posted on 6/11/23 at 11:05 pm to TitusCrow
TY............ 
Posted on 6/12/23 at 12:58 am to jeffsdad
Ukraine is now posting video evidence of having liberated Storozheve which confirms earlier claims and reports.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1668133287762571264 - Video in comments
Claimed to be geo-confirmed although the confirmation image isn't very good.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1668134226712051712
Edit: Removed illegible characters
quote:
Great way to start the day. Storozheve liberated
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1668133287762571264 - Video in comments
Claimed to be geo-confirmed although the confirmation image isn't very good.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1668134226712051712
Edit: Removed illegible characters
This post was edited on 6/12/23 at 1:28 am
Posted on 6/12/23 at 1:42 am to OutsideObserver
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1668139533009924098
Translation:
quote:
Russian military blogger Sladkov reports that the AFU is advancing towards Staromlynivka. He reports fierce battles in Urozhaine.
Translation:
quote:
Staromlynovskoe direction.
The enemy is advancing.
The settlement Urozhaynoye is defended by the OBTF "Cascade" (DPR). Units of the Ministry of Defense withdrew in an organized manner to the next line of defense. The military support the "Cascade" with artillery. There is no weather, aviation does not work. There are intense battles.
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