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re: KOC: League sources "expect" Pelicans to be aggressive in trade market

Posted on 5/1/24 at 4:51 pm to
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
111024 posts
Posted on 5/1/24 at 4:51 pm to
quote:

It's a real stat is it not? He shoudlnt' be shooting from anywhere else anyway at this point.
That's what you got out of me pointing out we'd have 9 other guys who can shoot on the team?

And as i pointed out in my long arse post, it doesn't matter if Dyson shoots 45% from 3 or 35% from 3, no one's guarding him off the ball and they will always let him shoot.
We don't have a lack of guys who can shoot well.

We have a lack of volume shooters. This is why trading CJ is very tricky, and if you don't get back another guy who shoots just as much, you're probably doomed to be dead last in the NBA in 3pt attempts.


CJ was an abomination in the postseason. But also, if we don't have regular season CJ who was basically the best 3pt shooter in the NBA, we likely don't even crack the top 10 to make the postseason.
This post was edited on 5/1/24 at 4:53 pm
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61554 posts
Posted on 5/1/24 at 5:21 pm to
quote:

Just really scared with that meshing with Griff's history about reluctance to pull a trade unless he thinks he's absolutely getting the win compared to sometimes where you just have to pull the trigger and get best value possible.


Just like Zion's injury history the last 4 years, I think there is a lot of noise in the data we have on Griff's trade record.

- He's a snake oil salesman and people act like he has a need to "win the press conference" with a clearly winning trade. As long as it's not too severe of a downgrade Griff would be able to sell a win in the press conference. Winning press conferences is what he does.
- The team has been standing pat in part waiting for data, that as of yesterday Griff said he now has.
- The team also seemed unsure of committing to Zion being #1 until Zion looked like he had committed to being a #1. That seems to have been resolved.
- We've seen him pivot quickly with Stan, he also unceremoniously moved on from NAW/Jax/Kira. He didn't damn the torpedoes and try to make them work because those 3 represented a #4 and #13 pick. He dumped Devonte Graham as well.

It just seems that people are saying Griff has sunk cost fallacy when he seems to cut his losses and pivot more readily than most GMs. Optimism bias is Griff's biggest weakness.
This post was edited on 5/1/24 at 5:23 pm
Posted by teke184
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
96072 posts
Posted on 5/1/24 at 6:04 pm to
quote:

he also unceremoniously moved on from NAW/Jax/Kira.


I believe only one of the three got serious minutes this year.

Kira was on our bench then I don’t believe he did much wherever he ended up.

Jax still looks like he doesn’t know how to play basketball half the time.

NAW is now getting minutes for a contender during the playoffs, so he is the one certainly overachieving his expectations.
Posted by BilJ
Member since Sep 2003
158773 posts
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:21 pm to
quote:

I mean also like last summer when we had interest in scoot but griff couldn’t pull the trigger


and dumb dumbs here were beside themselves at the thought of trading BI
Posted by Pistol44
New Orleans
Member since Jun 2019
1854 posts
Posted on 5/1/24 at 10:34 pm to
Well that was a crap ending. Good season, but Pels for sure, have peaked with the current roster. The outcome was predictable, but the way it played out with the Pels being the butt of National jokes stings. I say predictable due to the janky roster construction. Griff and Langdon constructed an imbalanced roster full of wings, limited primary ballhandlers, and lead-footed post-play and still tallied 49 wins.

I'm not inclined to blow the team up, but what we know is that the team desperately needs a primary ball handler who can shoot above the arc, defend reasonably and distribute the ball to positions for players to just finish a play (easier and more efficient). Additionally, Pels need stout rim protection that can space the floor (horizontally or vertically) while operating in an up-tempo scheme.

Pels should put to bed the notion of Point Zion or BI as the primary ballhandler, neither can withstand the physical demands of the position. For those that look at the record and high points, all one has to do is look at the number of critical turnovers in games that mattered and both being physically compromised going into the playoffs as proof. That was the season in a nutshell.

Pels need one if not two solid frontcourt players in the worse way. Not opposed to keeping either Val or Nance, but both are situational players at this point of their careers. Target a frontcourt player that provides rim protection, can defend on the perimeter, and can reasonably space will take this team to another level. It really should have been done last offseason or at the trade deadline.

Pels have the assets to fill both needs without gutting the roster. As I count, the Pels have Lakers, Bucks, and their own 1st. round picks; Val or Nance's salary, and an abundance of wings to get this done. Pels can add a primary ballhandler and a modern pivot while keeping a core of Zion, BI, Herb, TM3, Dyson, and Hawk.

The key for me is to not waver with its core. Recent history as an example are the Nuggets who were tempted to scuttle their roster after disappointing runs but held firm with a core of Joker, Gordon, Murray, KCP, and MPJ. They continued to upgrade on the margins and It has paid dividends for them and it could as well for the Pels.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
17905 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 4:48 am to
The problem with BI is that he plays slow. Not only does he not run well in transition, but he plays slow in the halfcourt, dribbling and holding the ball instead of making quick decisions.

The problem with BI, CJ, and Zion on the floor together is that they were all poor defenders this year. Zion appeared to have made a jump at the end of the season, but our "big 3" on the floor together simply gave up too many points.

And adding a slow JV to that lineup only made those problems worse. JV is slow and plays slow, and he's a poor defender in space. That's why our starting 5 had a negative net rating.

Substituting Larry for JV with the starters improved the quickness of our offensive sets, and we defended better in space, but our rebounding suffered too much.

The caveat with Larry is that he ended up shooting 42% from 3 this season, which is by far his highest percentage. If Larry can do that again in the future, and if he could be more aggressive and actually look to take those 3s, then I think that he could be decent with the starters. Too often, the opponent would simply ignore Larry on the perimeter, and Larry would pass up the open 3 to do a DHO to BI or CJ.

So, I like the idea of keeping Larry as a backup center more than the idea of keeping JV as the backup.

But we obviously need a new and better starting center. That's obviously Job #1 for Griff this off-season.

I am not confident at all that BI will be traded. So many of you are ignoring the fact that no team is going to trade for him as a one-year rental. The fact that he only has a year left on his deal means that any team interested will have to get an extension worked out before making the trade, and that effectively gives BI a veto on any trade proposal.

I think that Griff can see what we can see, but that doesn't mean that a successful trade opportunity will exist.
Posted by higgsBoson
Democratic Party
Member since Jan 2012
1414 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 5:51 am to
quote:

I'm not inclined to blow the team up, but what we know is that the team desperately needs a primary ball handler who can shoot above the arc, defend reasonably and distribute the ball to positions for players to just finish a play (easier and more efficient).


Everyone keeps saying this and they need to realize how difficult it is to find players like this. There’s absolutely no way for us to get one and keep BI unless we draft one. Try and find 10 players that fit this mold and then ask if we can realistically get one without giving up BI. I don’t think we can even if we give up BI.

quote:

Target a frontcourt player that provides rim protection, can defend on the perimeter, and can reasonably space will take this team to another level


Again who? How many switchable bigs who can shoot do you think there are?

People are living in a fantasy land about what we can do with this roster. Everyone wants these players and they won’t give them up. The only way we can get them is either sacrificing a lot to go after one or drafting one.
This post was edited on 5/2/24 at 5:56 am
Posted by jmcwhrter
Member since Nov 2012
6585 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 6:37 am to
What I don't understand is that the players we keep naming that we missed on -- Brunson, Maxey, etc. - all got immediate playing time to find out what they actually have with them..

Meanwhile we put training wheels on every draft pick we make except for Herb, who coincidentally is in the running for DPOY and making big strides this year..
This post was edited on 5/2/24 at 6:38 am
Posted by Epic Cajun
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
32574 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 6:42 am to
quote:

The odds we trade BI for a #2 are pretty low. I'm worried we don't trade BI because losing BI would mean we have no #2. The problem with this is BI is already not good enough to be a #2, so we already right now do not have a #2, so the idea of not making a trade because we wouldn't have a #2 just doesn't make sense.

But it’s not just, “trade BI or don’t trade BI and keep the status quo”, it’s “trade BI for whatever you can get, or sign him to a ridiculous contract that is going to hamstring your team for the foreseeable future”.
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
25701 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 7:30 am to
quote:

What I don't understand is that the players we keep naming that we missed on -- Brunson, Maxey, etc. - all got immediate playing time to find out what they actually have with them.. Meanwhile we put training wheels on every draft pick we make except for Herb, who coincidentally is in the running for DPOY and making big strides this year..


Why do you think that is?

When you can play, it’s obvious from the get go. It doesn’t matter if you are playing on a lottery bound team or a contender, if you can ball as a rookie you will play. It’s as simple as that.

Maxey isn’t better than Kira b/c he was given more of a chance. He’s better b/c he’s better.
I said it after a few games that it wasn’t a good sign that Kira wasn’t playing, or that he was always playing off ball. The signs were obvious that he wasn’t impressing anyone on the staff.
NAW got plenty of playing time early on, despite struggling at times he kept getting playing time. He played in the first 15 games of the season. Kira didn’t play in our first 4 games of the season, and was one of the last rookies in the league to make his debut, and the only reason he played a game in the first 10 games is b/c we lost a game by 30 in that 5th game where he got in.

It was obvious the coaches saw something in NAW that they didn’t see in Kira. I know Hawkins didn’t play as much down the stretch, but I think it’s obvious they see something in him as well. I know all of us do.
Posted by teke184
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
96072 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 7:35 am to
quote:

But it’s not just, “trade BI or don’t trade BI and keep the status quo”, it’s “trade BI for whatever you can get, or sign him to a ridiculous contract that is going to hamstring your team for the foreseeable future”.


Yep. And that latter situation means it likely costs us Trey between the amount of money he could get and the fact that he should be a starter instead of a sixth man.



We don’t necessarily need a #2 star for BI but if the fit isn’t working, we need to see what we can do to salvage our situation with our pieces going forward.
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
25701 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 7:44 am to
quote:

It just seems that people are saying Griff has sunk cost fallacy when he seems to cut his losses and pivot more readily than most GMs. Optimism bias is Griff's biggest weakness


Well when you make more bone headed moves then everyone else, you’re going to have plenty chances to cut your losses.
I can do what he’s doing. Just keep giving me chances and I’ll eventually get it right too.
He’s wasting assets left and right and has no idea how to construct this roster and team.
Posted by Balsamic_duck
Member since Jun 2017
3169 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 8:30 am to
quote:

We don't have a lack of guys who can shoot well.

We have a lack of volume shooters. This is why trading CJ is very tricky, and if you don't get back another guy who shoots just as much, you're probably doomed to be dead last in the NBA in 3pt attempts.


CJ was an abomination in the postseason. But also, if we don't have regular season CJ who was basically the best 3pt shooter in the NBA, we likely don't even crack the top 10 to make the postseason.


Totally agree. We can't just dump CJ, as much of a postseason choker as he is, we can't replace his shooting unless you're getting a high volume guy back.

I can live with CJ for another year. I can't live with BI another year
Posted by ghost2most
Member since Mar 2012
6630 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 8:35 am to
quote:

Totally agree. We can't just dump CJ, as much of a postseason choker as he is, we can't replace his shooting unless you're getting a high volume guy back.



Hawkins could easily replace his volume. Question is how effectively.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Dallas TX
Member since Jan 2016
40137 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 8:46 am to
quote:

Hawkins could easily replace his volume. Question is how effectively.


Thats easy. Look at the games he started and the G League.




Ima keep posting this until it happens or I get let down. The latter more probable.
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
116098 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 9:03 am to
How are we trading 2 1sts this year when we are only likely to have one?

Any team would want us to defer the Lakers pick to 25 which is a MUCH MUCH better draft predicted.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61554 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 9:17 am to
quote:

Ima keep posting this until it happens or I get let down. The latter more probable.


I know there are some Klutch and personality red flags around Murray, but the more I look at him and his potential fit, he just seems like the guy to go after.

- Your defense and rebounding immediately improve. Swapping Trey for BI is probably a wash in defense/rebounding, maybe a slight edge to Trey with his upward trajectory. Murray's advanced stats say he's a near Josh Hart level rebounder, or at least he was with the Spurs, and he's also a big upgrade over CJ as a defender.
- Your 3 point shooting is in theory an upgrade. You will miss CJ's movement and self creation but Trey is just as prolific as CJ with 3s. Murray is an upgrade over BI in that he actually takes and makes 3s at a good enough volume.
- Your ball handling and creation improve as Murray has been an All Star level PG. His last season with the Spurs he averaged 9.2 assists and 2.6 turnovers while scoring 21 points per game.
- He's on a fair contract for a player of his caliber.

This post was edited on 5/2/24 at 9:22 am
Posted by teke184
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
96072 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 9:32 am to
My question with regards to Murray is more a Hawks question of “How distressed an asset is he?”


They have painted themselves into a corner with Trey as their star and they have a ton of money tied up in Capela and Bogdonovic who likely aren’t in their long term plans. They also have shite in draft assets due to the Murray trade.

Hawks’ 1st round pics owed -

2025 - Spurs
2026 - Swap w Spurs
2027 - Spurs


They get a first from the Kings in either 2025 or 2026 depending on draft order.

They own their own picks outright, no swap, for 2028-2030.



If they want CJ for Murray, they would have to throw in another $15m+ in ballast (probably Capela with additional money from us going back) plus us sending picks to them.

Theoretically, we can offer them this year’s pick and possibly the Laker pick (17 this year OR unprotected for 2025) if we want to move picks rather than young prospects like Dyson.


It comes down to how much help Murray would be as a true point, how much other pieces coming in, like Capela, would be in solving other problems, and the path that leaves us going forward in the draft and free agency to patch any remaining holes.



This assumes a lineup going forward of Murray, Trey, Herb, Zion, and either JV or Capela with key subs being GTA, Dyson, Hawkins, and a big.
Posted by Balsamic_duck
Member since Jun 2017
3169 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 9:42 am to
quote:

Hawkins could easily replace his volume. Question is how effectively.


We should be adding Hawks volume to CJ's not just replacing CJ's volume. We were 25th in 3PAs this year, we need to shoot more not stay the same
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
25701 posts
Posted on 5/2/24 at 9:43 am to
quote:

I know there are some Klutch and personality red flags around Murray, but the more I look at him and his potential fit, he just seems like the guy to go after.




100% agree he should be a big target of ours, and I think ATL would be ecstatic to get BI for him.

quote:

and he's also a big upgrade over CJ as a defender.


Murray had more deflections this year than Herb. He was one of the top in the league at it. And you mentioned his rebounding. It's why i keep saying we need to go after Tobias Harris. Murray and Herb are good rebounders, Trey and Tobias with their length are really good rebounders, and if Zion gives the effort he can be really good rebounder. If all 5 simply give the effort to team rebound, they can close games with that small lineup, even though i don't htink it's that small. Murray and Herb have big wingspans and Trey and Tobias are both around 6'9" with Tobias having some weight to him to handle bigger guys.

quote:

- Your ball handling and creation improve as Murray has been an All Star level PG. His last season with the Spurs he averaged 9.2 assists and 2.6 turnovers while scoring 21 points per game.



And that's what's needed if you lose BI. You have to get a PG back that can create on his own and get his own shot off, and Murray can do that.
No more BI and Zion playing PG.

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