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re: Brother-in-law has a friend that passed away from Corona
Posted on 4/1/20 at 8:48 am to lsupride87
Posted on 4/1/20 at 8:48 am to lsupride87
quote:
So for you to know 6 people is extremely on the statical anomaly side of things
True
But if this spreads in clusters, if you know 1, you probably know multiple
1
Posted on 4/1/20 at 8:48 am to lsupride87
quote:
Still statistically very more likely you don’t know someone that tested positive, as only 3 out of everyone 1,000 New Orleans metro people have tested positive
So... if you live in or around New Orleans and you know 1,000 people. Statistically, you likely do know someone who has it, no? Most people know 1,000+ people...
Posted on 4/1/20 at 8:49 am to Antonio Moss
quote:The frick? Yes, I do
You think it's crazy that people know 2,000 people?
Posted on 4/1/20 at 8:49 am to Antonio Moss
quote:The flu number is an estimate and not based on confirmed cases. Is the covid number also an estimate or based solely on confirmed cases?
The historical death rate from seasonal flu for 18-49 year olds in about .02%. The death rate for COVID-19 in this age group is .2%.
There have been multiple studies showing that covid is less deadly than the flu for this age group.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 8:50 am to ell_13
Also to clear this up
Y’all are comparing the case mortality rate of covid, to the estimated mortality rate of the flu
That isn’t apples to apples at all. For example, the overall case mortality rate of the flu is usually around 3%
Y’all are comparing the case mortality rate of covid, to the estimated mortality rate of the flu
That isn’t apples to apples at all. For example, the overall case mortality rate of the flu is usually around 3%
This post was edited on 4/1/20 at 8:54 am
Posted on 4/1/20 at 8:53 am to Salmon
quote:Fair point
But if this spreads in clusters, if you know 1, you probably know multiple
My original point of the Perfectly healthy 16 year old on a ventilator, perfectly healthy 20 year old that almost died, perfectly healthy 40 year old that died, and 40 year old chain smoker that has no issues with covid all being known by people in here is horseshite
I believe none of that
This post was edited on 4/1/20 at 8:53 am
Posted on 4/1/20 at 8:55 am to lsupride87
quote:
only 0.11% of Louisiana has tested positive
Far far far far far more likely you don’t know someone than do
That's something like 1 out of 900. Most people have about that many Facebook 'friends'. Sure it isn't like you hang out with them daily, but it's easy to say I 'know' a couple thousand people whether I see them often or not. Social media and technology close that gap and allow people to keep up with college classmates from 20-30 years ago. I just checked and I have about 900 contacts in my phone. Anyway, just pointing out that saying "Far far far far far more likely you don’t know someone than do" is just plain wrong unless someone is living in a remote area.
quote:
And if you do know someone, the chance of knowing two is astronomically low
You don't understand how this works. If you know someone that has it, it's very likely you know their kid, spouse, parent, etc also have it. Many people may not know someone locally that has it while many people will know multiples. I know a few people that are confirmed. Only one in the ICU. But these numbers will certainly climb in the coming days, weeks.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 8:55 am to PhiTiger1764
quote:We are using different definitions of the word “know” I suppose
So... if you live in or around New Orleans and you know 1,000 people. Statistically, you likely do know someone who has it, no? Most people know 1,000+ people...
Sure, if the cart boy from Winn Dixie I go to gets it, I Personally would not tell people I know someone who has it. But that’s just semantics i guess
When 99.89% of the state hasn’t tested positive, it seems silly having everyone “know” someone that has it.
This post was edited on 4/1/20 at 8:57 am
Posted on 4/1/20 at 8:57 am to LSUBFA83
(no message)
This post was edited on 9/25/20 at 10:19 am
Posted on 4/1/20 at 8:57 am to ell_13
quote:
The flu number is an estimate and not based on confirmed cases. Is the covid number also an estimate or based solely on confirmed cases?
The flu numbers are model based on known transmission rates and death rates.
COVID is based on confirmed cases.
But even if you assumed that half of all cases are unaccounted for, that still makes COVID 5 times as deadly as the flu for this age group.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 8:59 am to John88
quote:
My MIL
quote:
early 40s.
Pics?
Posted on 4/1/20 at 8:59 am to lsupride87
quote:
Y’all are comparing the case mortality rate of covid, to the estimated mortality rate of the flu
That isn’t apples to apples at all. For example, the overall case mortality rate of the flu is usually around 3%
Y'all act like these models are just pulling numbers out of the thin air.
The flu mortality rates are pretty established.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 8:59 am to Antonio Moss
quote:That's because we test anyone with a low grade fever for flu. With covid you damn near have to be on your death bed to get a test. It's called selection bias.
ETA: Just looked it up. The historical death rate from seasonal flu for 18-49 year olds in about .02%. The death rate for COVID-19 in this age group is .2%. This means COVID is ten times more deadly for young people than the seasonal flu.
If we only flu swabbed people who were hospitalized with the flu, the death rate would be much higher than .02%
Until we get a flu swab-like test for covid, we will not know the actual mortality rate of covid.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 9:00 am to Bow dude72
Did he attend Mardi Gras ?
Posted on 4/1/20 at 9:01 am to Antonio Moss
It pisses me off that people shrug it off as they had underlying conditions and would have died anyway.... obesity, diabetes, heart disease, high blood pressure etc are all conditions that you can continue to live for decades with medication and management. Many of those dead in the 50-70 age bracket would have lived much longer had they not caught the COVID
Posted on 4/1/20 at 9:03 am to bayoudude
I personally am not shrugging it off at all. However, people embellishing, or in some cases straight lying about these “perfectly healthy young” deaths, actually causes people to treat this less serious. It causes the other side to somewhat dig in more
Data and truth is all that is needed here. Not emotion
Data and truth is all that is needed here. Not emotion
Posted on 4/1/20 at 9:03 am to Antonio Moss
quote:i think it’s easy to assume that for the age range of 18-49, we aren’t accounting for 90% of the cases. And it was probable more early on. I was originally told not to even get a test after I tested negative for the flu 3 weeks ago because of my age (33) and health status.
But even if you assumed that half of all cases are unaccounted for
Posted on 4/1/20 at 9:05 am to lsupride87
quote:
However, people embellishing, or in some cases straight lying about these “perfectly healthy young” deaths
They are certainly on the edge of the bell curve. But that's the case with seasonal flu as well. It's just COVID is more deadly so those edges of the bell curve account for a higher number of deaths in the "rare" categories.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 9:05 am to Antonio Moss
quote:And still not based on confirmed cases. It’s accuracy is assumed to be pretty good because of how much data we have. But it’s still an estimate. That’s not debatable.
The flu mortality rates are pretty established.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 9:06 am to ell_13
quote:
i think it’s easy to assume that for the age range of 18-49, we aren’t accounting for 90% of the cases.
There is no statistical model that comes close to that number. You are just making that up.
I think it's probably somewhere between 40-60%.
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